March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019

TRINITY-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-
WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TRINITY, GROVETON, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD,
COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON, CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE,
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS,
LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY,
BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON,
EL CAMPO, WHARTON, MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND,
ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY, PECAN GROVE, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, AND FRIENDSWOOD
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019

...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE...

A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE WILL
PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET IS ALLOWING SOME OF THE
RAIN TO FREEZE AND BECOME ICE PELLETS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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jasons wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:45 am And HGX radar is down. Wonderful timing!!
seems to be working fine now, there's a "jump" in images though, as if some are missed. strange it didn't show the out-of-order message

Image
unome
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new discussion posted"

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can't rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
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And we’re trending colder...still....


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south
central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and
temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can`t rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it
appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
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It would be nice if those thick clouds stick around tonight and tomorrow night.
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srainhoutx
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BlueJay wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:17 am It would be nice if those thick clouds stick around tonight and tomorrow night.
Looking at GOES 16 (EAST), I am having doubts about us clearing out right now.
Attachments
03042019 1607Z COD-GOES-East-regional-southcentral_02_20190304_160713-over=map-bars=.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
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wxman57 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
So the two coldest days of the whole winter both fell outside of the ‘meteorological winter’ months. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before.
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djmike
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Wow! Woke up to 43 here in Beaumont at 6am and its now 11am and we are now at 39. It keeps dropping! We are prob at our high temp for the day!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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wxman57 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.

Those azaleas are not always right. :)
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djmike
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Any sleet reported yet?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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cperk wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:36 am
wxman57 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
Those azaleas are not always right. :)
Harold Taft used to say “Spring isn’t here until the mesquite trees bloom” but I haven’t seen a mesquite tree since my last trip to Austin. Used to be a field of them along the Hardy but they were cleared a few months ago.
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djmike
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Still going down. 42 now to 38 at noon.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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Sleet returns near College Station. May be verga.

I don't think we've broken freezing yet...and we probably won't.

So, we may be at freezing or below for 36 hours.

...and near 80°F by the weekend.


Welcome to Texas! Hope you've had your flu shot!
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jasons2k
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Met my wife at home for lunch. She came in, shivering and says “It’s (effing) cold out there!! Is this the coldest day of the winter?” and I said “Well, yes, as a matter of fact it is!”

Litttle league baseball game tonight was cancelled due to the cold. I think that’s another first...

Unless this wind dies down, those covers aren’t gonna help much tonight.
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But if the wind continues, won't it help keep the temps from plummeting?

Jasons - use bricks, rocks and other heavy items to weigh those covers down.
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Hard Freeze Warning coming for locations North of a Brenham, Conroe, Livingston line beginning at 9:00 PM. Freeze Warning coming for the rest of SE Texas except along the Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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081
FXUS64 KHGX 041752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.AVIATION...
The weak ripple/wave that came across within the southwest mid-
level steering flow this morning and introduced light precipitation,
mainly sprinkles with some western ice pellet mix, has also assisted
in keeping all hubs at MVFR ceilings. Satellite showing the work of
lower level drier air infiltration over North Texas. This dry air
will work its way south and begin to thin decks to VFR category
through the late afternoon into early evening hours. Other than a
quick spit of light rain, the trend is for drying, lifting while
scattering out decks and a weaker north wind over the next 6 hours.
Few-sct lower clouds with a thin layer of cirrus tomorrow as VFR
prevails from tonight through Tuesday afternoon. 31
Cpv17
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Topped out at 37 degrees here in Wharton today. Back down to 36 with a feels like of 26. 30 degrees below normal. Pretty potent front.
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srainhoutx
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CST MON MAR 4 2019

...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE FROM 9 PM THROUGH 9 AM
TUESDAY MORNING...

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
TUESDAY MORNING...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS AIR MASS
IS VERY COLD AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING NORTH
OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE BY 9 PM AND COULD FALL TO AROUND
24 DEGREES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH, A LIGHT
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 27 AND
32 DEGREES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BRENHAM, BRYAN, CALDWELL, COLDSPRING,
COLLEGE STATION, CONROE, CORRIGAN, CROCKETT, GROVETON,
HUNTSVILLE, LIVINGSTON, MADISONVILLE, NAVASOTA, SHEPHERD,
SOMERVILLE, THE WOODLANDS, AND TRINITY

321 PM CST MON MAR 4 2019

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 24 AND 27 DEGREES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 24 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

AUSTIN-COLORADO-FORT BEND-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
INLAND HARRIS-INLAND JACKSON-INLAND MATAGORDA-NORTHERN LIBERTY-
WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANGLETON, BAY CITY, BELLVILLE,
BROOKSHIRE, CLEVELAND, COLUMBUS, DAYTON, EAGLE LAKE, EDNA,
EL CAMPO, FIRST COLONY, FRIENDSWOOD, GANADO, HEMPSTEAD, HOUSTON,
LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, PEARLAND,
PECAN GROVE, PRAIRIE VIEW, ROSENBERG, SEALY, SUGAR LAND, WALLER,
WEIMAR, AND WHARTON

321 PM CST MON MAR 4 2019

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 DEGREES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.




Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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