March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019

TRINITY-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-
WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TRINITY, GROVETON, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD,
COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON, CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE,
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS,
LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY,
BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON,
EL CAMPO, WHARTON, MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND,
ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY, PECAN GROVE, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, AND FRIENDSWOOD
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019

...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE...

A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE WILL
PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET IS ALLOWING SOME OF THE
RAIN TO FREEZE AND BECOME ICE PELLETS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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jasons wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:45 am And HGX radar is down. Wonderful timing!!
seems to be working fine now, there's a "jump" in images though, as if some are missed. strange it didn't show the out-of-order message

Image
unome
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new discussion posted"

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can't rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
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jasons2k
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And we’re trending colder...still....


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south
central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and
temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can`t rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it
appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
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It would be nice if those thick clouds stick around tonight and tomorrow night.
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srainhoutx
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BlueJay wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:17 am It would be nice if those thick clouds stick around tonight and tomorrow night.
Looking at GOES 16 (EAST), I am having doubts about us clearing out right now.
Attachments
03042019 1607Z COD-GOES-East-regional-southcentral_02_20190304_160713-over=map-bars=.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
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jasons2k
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wxman57 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
So the two coldest days of the whole winter both fell outside of the ‘meteorological winter’ months. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before.
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djmike
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Wow! Woke up to 43 here in Beaumont at 6am and its now 11am and we are now at 39. It keeps dropping! We are prob at our high temp for the day!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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wxman57 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.

Those azaleas are not always right. :)
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