March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[Cpv17]

One thing that is confusing me is the precipitation forecast from the CPC. They keep on placing us in the above average precipitation, but the Euro is almost completely dry for our area for the next ten days. Plus the past couple times the CPC has put us in the above average precipitation area it never materialized. I’m not really putting too much stock into their forecast like I usually would.

[Cpv17]

Models appear to be drying out for this coming weekend now too..geez

[jasons2k]

Will have to run the sprinklers today for the first time in months. We need some rain.

[BlueJay]

It's sprinkling here (barely) and the skies are quite dark.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current fcst has a good handle on things. Just a few tweaks for
the update, mainly extending fog duration in the Gulf until the
front passes thru that area later tonight. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/
Some areas of fog linger across the forecast region, particularly
across the south and southwest counties, mostly affecting LBX and
GLS. Fog is expected to lift by 15Z today. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to lift during the morning hours and should become
VFR in the afternoon. Winds will be shifting during the TAF period
due to the passage of a weak cold front. Winds will become west
to northwest in the morning and then become north in the afternoon
across the northern half of the CWA. For the southern half of the
CWA, winds will become west to northwest during the morning and
then become north tonight. SHRA expected mostly north of I-10 and
east of I-45 this afternoon as the cold front moves across the
local area. The development of isolated thunderstorms is possible
mainly across the northeastern and eastern counties. Rain activity
will dissipate after 00Z Tuesday with skies clearing through the
end of the forecast period. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/
Line of showers and thunderstorms along the front extending from
near Palastine to near Nacogdoches to Ruston LA. Garden variety
storms but wouldn`t rule out some brief gusty winds and small hail
though probably northeast/east of the CWA. The tail end of the
band should clip the Crockett to Livingston areas eastward this
morning.

Warm and humid across the region this morning with areas of fog
over the southwest areas intruding into Hobby/Pearland
areas...visibility of 1 mile at times with fluctuations around
that. May need a small dense fog advisory for the
Matagorda/Brazoria county region if it gets much thicker.

As the front pushes down across the region today should see some
scattered showers form beneath the cap and as cap erodes this
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to around
80 ahead of the frontal boundary will probably see some isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms. Most of these should be
southeast of a Livingston to Houston to Bay City line. By early
evening the front should be near the coast and offshore more than
10-20nm by midnight. Loss of heating should bring on the demise of
the storms.

Front pushes on southward and dry air overspreads the region
tonight/Tuesday. Skies clearing and should make for nearly a
Chamber of Commerce sort of day. Wednesday expecting the winds to
turn back from the north to the east bringing back an increase in
low level moisture to the southwest areas (still dry over the
north and central and warmer) with the flow increasing Wednesday
night and Thursday. Rain chances increasing Friday over the west
in closer proximity to the upper speed max exit region. Still
looks relatively capped. Friday into Saturday rain chances
increase and Saturday looking like the beginning of the spring
season for storms in SETX. CAPE in excess of 1500j/kg and two
short waves that aren`t quite in phase...(of course this a day 6
forecast and subject to significant change)...could bring a good
chance for soaking rains to much of the area. The associated cold
front should move off the coast Saturday night or early Sunday
morning. 45

MARINE...
Some areas of patchy fog continues possible this morning,
particularly across Matagorda Bay and adjacent nearshore waters.
Light south winds will become southwest to west across the
nearshore waters throughout the day today. Over the offshore
waters, winds should become southwest to west tonight. Winds
across the Gulf waters will become north to northeast and increase
overnight after the passage of a weak cold front. SCEC conditions
are expected early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Seas should remain 3 feet or less across the nearshore waters and
remain 5 feet or less across the offshore waters. Easterly wind
flow will then prevail across the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening. Onshore flow returns Thursday through
Saturday. Another cold front could move across the coastal waters
Sunday with increasing winds and seas in the wake of the front. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 52 73 51 74 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 76 53 73 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 61 69 59 65 / 20 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeast TX and southwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251710Z - 251945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and gusty wind threat should exist
this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is located over southeast TX and
southwestern LA this afternoon based on recent surface observations
and visible satellite imagery. A thunderstorm has gradually
strengthened along the front near the TX/LA border where diurnal
heating has encouraged MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg to develop per recent
mesoanalysis estimates. Low-level flow across this region remains
generally weak, with the LCH and HGX VWPs showing westerly winds of
25 kt or less in the lowest 3 km AGL. But, mid to upper-level
westerly winds do strengthen with height, and 35-40 kt of effective
bulk shear should be enough to support some updraft organization.
Additional thunderstorms will probably develop this afternoon along
the front and move east-southeastward. Isolated large hail may occur
due to the strong uni-directional flow present above 3 km and some
modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates. Gusty downdraft winds
may occur as well where low-level lapse rates become steepened. With
the large-scale ascent expected to remain minimal across this
region, thunderstorm coverage and related severe threat will
probably remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/25/2019

[Katdaddy]

A clear cool SE TX morning will be followed by a perfect Spring afternoon. The skies and lighting were beautiful yesterday evening.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances for me Sat Night were consistently 60%. Now they’ve been dropped to 50%. Here we go again....It’s too early in the season for this!!!

[Montgomery]

Another nice day ahead! Brisk this morning. 46 in my front yard this at 6:30.

[mcheer23]

We may not hit 60 on Sunday...

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

High pressure that has been in control of the weather over the area since the frontal passage on Monday evening is starting to shift eastward allowing a return of Gulf moisture.

ESE to SE winds this afternoon will become more SE on Thursday. With surface observations showing upper 50 degree dewpoints already into Palacios, this more moist air mass is poised to make a return to much of the region on Thursday and Friday. Not seeing anything that would be much of a focus for rainfall until Saturday, but can’t rule out a few south to north moving showers on Friday.

On Saturday as surface cold front will approach the region from the north and this feature along with disturbances embedded with the SW flow aloft will begin to work with the increased moisture in place for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Appears the front will move through the region during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday and this will focus the greatest rain chances in that time period.

Upper trough hangs back over the SW US and does not eject across TX until late Sunday. This will result in moisture flowing SSW to NNE over the top of the surface cold pool on Sunday likely resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. With cold air advection, clouds, and rain, highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 60 over much of the area. Passage of the upper level trough on Sunday evening will allow for a much drier air mass to settle into the region for the start of next week with rain chances gradually ending Sunday night into Monday. It will also be fairly cool for early April with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s.

Rainfall over the weekend is expected to average .5 to 1 inch which will be welcomed as March has been fairly dry over the region. In fact the drought monitor shows increasing “dryness” from the Rio Grande plains into the Matagorda Bay region.

[Katdaddy]

Another beautiful Spring day ahead with increasing high clouds. Temps this morning mostly in the 50s across SE TX.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances this weekend are spread out and never get over 50%. I wonder if it’s a question of if or when.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 281759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have finally lifted across SE TX...likely with the aid
of the 15-20kt S/SE winds just above the surface mixing down. We
could see some gusty conditions this afternoon. Otherwise...will
keep with this morning`s trend of MVFR CIGS for tomorrow morning.
Isolated streamer WAA type showers will also be possible for the
early Fri morning hours, but will hold off any mention (probably
VCSH) at this time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019/

UPDATE...
No real changes necessary to ongoing forecast today. Increasing
clouds with breezy south-southeast winds areawide, with max temps
well into the mid to upper 70s away from the immediate coast.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 60 79 61 74 / 0 10 20 10 30
Houston (IAH) 75 61 77 63 79 / 0 10 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 72 66 74 67 74 / 0 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[jasons2k]

Rain chances have been bumped up this weekend. This is a good trend.

[Katdaddy]

A few lights showers this morning across SE TX as weak disturbance moves across the area. Expect a warm and breezy afternoon. Saturday will have high temps near 80F with showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Short wave moving across the region this morning coupled with returning low level moisture is resulting in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This activity will move east of the area by noon with decreasing clouds this afternoon and highs near 80 under continued southerly onshore flow.

Moisture begins to deepen tonight and could start to see showers develop early on Saturday well ahead of a fairly strong cold front that will cross the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Area forecast soundings for Saturday afternoon show a fairly decent cap in place across the region and with only modest surface heating, think the capping will hold. Greatest potential for the cap to break will be south of HWY 105 during the mid to late afternoon hours if surface temperatures can reach the lower 80’s. These appears to be a bit of a stretch given cloudy skies on Saturday, but not impossible. If the cap were to break a few strong thunderstorms would be possible.

Front moves into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday evening with strong cold air advection regime post front. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s Saturday evening and into the 40’s by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue behind the frontal boundary as moisture continues in place and lift comes to bear across the region in to form of the sub-tropical jet stream.

Will continue at least 40% rain chances into Sunday as moisture really does not dry out much and favor the areas SW of a Columbus to Houston to High Island line. IT will be fairly cool on Sunday with cold air advection, clouds, and rain, and expect temperatures to remain in the 50’s for much of the day. With north winds, wind chills on Sunday will be in the 40’s.

Another short wave approaches on Monday afternoon, and while moisture begins to decrease, this feature looks fairly strong, so think with even meager amounts of moisture showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon.

Onshore flow begins to return next Tuesday and the overall pattern looks to remain fairly active with disturbances moving out of MX and across TX for much of next week with rain chances again on Wednesday and then toward the end of the week.

Rainfall amounts over the weekend will likely average .5 to 1 inch over the region with the greatest amounts around Matagorda Bay. This will be much needed rainfall for much of the area as it has be fairly dry recently.

[jasons2k]

Lots of capping issues...again.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful late March evening.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances dropped to 40% now!!