March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
BlueJay
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Today is the last full day of Winter 2018-2019! YAY!
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Overnight offensive fire fighting operations have extinguished fire on all of the tanks. Crews are actively working to cool tanks and maintain vapor suppression to prevent any sort of re-kindle.

Winds are calm across the entire region this morning and small amounts of smoke that continue to be produced at the site are being trapped near the ground immediately surrounding and just to the W and N of the site over portions of Deer Park, northern Pasadena, Galena Park, and Channelview. Winds are expected to remain extremely light and variable this morning which will help to maintain any emitting smoke close to the source site, but mixing heights rapidly rise to near 5000-7000ft by midday which will help to disperse any remaining smoke.

Air quality sensors continue to show “good” to “moderate” readings both from fixed TCEQ sensors and mobile sampling units that are deployed by various agencies over the area. The East Houston (Clinton) TCEQ site is running the highest of PM 2.5 over any of the last 3 days this morning, but is still considered in the “good range”. Another site that can be used (similar to weather bug www.purpleair.com) is showing slightly more elevated levels, but these sites are not QA/QC’ed so they should be used with caution.

Weather:
Luckily, fairly stable weather over the last few days during the incident greatly helped with the smoke plume transport and modeling as well as air quality. A storm system will start to approach TX later this week and into the weekend with an increase in showers and thunderstorms possible over the weekend, especially in our north and western areas. After and brief period of northerly winds tonight into early Thursday, winds will return from the south and increase Thursday afternoon into Friday allowing Gulf moisture to flow into the area. As a storm system ejects into the central plains over the weekend a series of weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft will move across the region resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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tireman4
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077
FXUS64 KHGX 201240
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
740 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Patchy shallow fog near GLS/LBX this morning but should be very
short lived. BKN deck of AC to the west should expand eastward
today but scatter out as it does so. Cold front moving through
late afternoon/tonight with northerly winds developing in it`s
wake. VFR.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Dry/mild weather to continue the next few days. A weak cold front
is expected to move through SE TX later this evening...and bring-
ing with it a re-inforcing shot of cool/dry air. No precipitation
will accompany this boundary as it moves across the region, given
the very dry air mass already in place. With high clouds making a
return this afternoon/tonight...we are still not going to see any
big changes from the seasonal temperatures of late for today (and
tomorrow) as the quiet pattern persists.

Looking ahead, the main forecast issues with this package will be
with increased rain chances this weekend. A series of upper level
short-waves moving across the Rockies will help to break down the
weak ridging aloft Fri/Sat. The return of a strengthening onshore
flow (in response) should allow for increasing low-level moisture
and low POPs starting Fri night from the W. Embedded disturbances
in the increasingly SW flow aloft will account for scattered act-
ivity at times on Sat/Sun...with a more organized line of showers
and thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front which
is currently progged for Mon afternoon. 41

FIRE WEATHER...
Slow moistening of the lower levels today and not as gusty as
yesterday was across the southern areas. Mixing heights today should
soar into the 4000-7000ft range late morning/and afternoon.
Lingering smoke should be sparse and getting dispersed quickly from
last evenings fire. 1 minute high res GOES 16 data not showing any
signs of the smoke now but will probably have at least some hints of
it lingering after sunrise. Calm winds across the inland areas early
this morning will be light and variable most of the day. Weak cold
front moves through tonight and northerly flow throughout the column
develops but isn`t very strong. RH values should drop into the upper
20s to lower 30s over most of the area Thursday.
45

MARINE...
SCA for the 20-60nm waters through 7 am for seas of 6-7 feet
subsiding as winds relax early this morning. Light winds regime on
tap until the from arrives late tonight with northerly winds
strengthening but the offshore flow will be short lived as weak high
pressure moves into SETX then across the coastal waters and Friday
winds turn around to the southeast. Strengthening flow Friday
night/Saturday with persistent southeasterly flow into Sunday. Rain
chances on the increase Saturday morning. Stronger cold front
arrives Monday night or Tuesday and expect SCA/SCEC conditions in
it`s wake.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 47 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 48 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 57 69 57 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201705
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Fcst soundings show a saturated layer around 700 feet this
afternoon so will maintain the SCT/BKN deck into this evening.
Winds will remain light and variable as weak high pressure drifts
over the region. GFS soundings show a deep enough saturated layer
for maybe a few showers between 03-06z but did not include in TAFs
for now. Skies should clear from north to south by sunrise in the
wake of a weak cold front. VFR conds on Thursday with generally
light winds. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/

UPDATE...
Just minor changes to forecast...based on latest
observations and satellite which shows overcast areas in NW
zones...mostly sunny elsewhere. High temperature forecast looks on
target. 18
Cpv17
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Interesting....

Image
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Belmer
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Probably no big surprise, but the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have officially retired both Hurricane Florence and Michael. The replacement names for 2024 will be Francine and Milton.

More info: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 226750002/
Blake
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Belmer
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Another day where several school districts are closed. A shelter-in-place has been re-issued for Deer Park after levels of Benzene were reported -
BREAKING UPDATE AT 5:15 AM THURS: "As a result of tank fire incident we are experiencing action levels of Benzene. It is recommended that industrial and public neighbors South of Tidal Road, East of Beltway 8, West of Underwood, and North of Pasadena Blvd. take shelter in place precautions until further notice."
Following school districts are closed today:
La Porte ISD
Pasadena ISD
Sheldon ISD
Galena ParkISD
Channelview ISD
Deer Park ISD
Attachments
Shelter-In-Place
Shelter-In-Place
Last edited by Belmer on Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
Blake
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unome
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Braskem's La Porte facility also issued a shelter-in-place notice this morning, it's about 2 miles SSE from ITC, as the crow flies

http://www.ehcma.org/caeronline/

https://goo.gl/maps/aREGkFgKX4C2
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211008
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Per obs, the latest cold front looks to be just off the coast this
morning. Weak CAA noted in the wake of this boundary thus far, but
the slightly lower dewpoints filtering into the region will likely
have impacts with fire weather concerns this afternoon. Otherwise,
this mild/dry weather will prevail another day or so as high pres-
sure remains the in charge.

With the surface high moving further east by tomorrow...the return
of onshore winds will also herald the return of low-level moisture
and warmer temperatures. This SE flow will be strengthening during
the evening/overnight (Fri night into Sat morning) as the next up-
per trof moves into the Southern Plains and deepens. While progged
PWs are not terribly impressive (1.0-1.3"), there should be enough
to interact with any short-waves (moving in just ahead of the main
system) on Sat to produce isolated/scattered activity. The highest
POPs will likely range from north to south (given the proximity of
the upper low as it lift out to the NE). Will maintain some lowish
POPs for Sun as the onshore flow/slightly elevated PWs remain over
the area. Daytime heating/seabreeze should be the main triggers.

These latest (00Z) runs are not quite as aggressive with this next
cold front on Mon...but are still indicating FROPA late Mon after-
noon. Rain chances look much lower with its passage, perhaps owing
to the pronounced W/SW low-level flow ahead of it early Mon. Drier
and slightly cooler weather expected in its wake for Tues/Weds. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front moving through the coastal waters and winds should
increase a little this morning becoming more northeasterly with time
today. A seabreeze will likely develop and alter winds locally along
the ICW and bays. Southeasterly flow developing Friday strengthening
into Saturday. Gradual moistening through the weekend and could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday around Matagorda bay
(less likely for the nearshore waters and Galveston Bay areas) with
rain chances lingering Sunday through Tuesday morning. A stronger
cold front swings through early Tuesday.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for the area with a narrow scattered mid level deck around 6000-
7000ft shifting southward this morning. Patchy fog around BYY/LBX
areas this morning should mix out as the north and northeasterly
winds pick up slightly by 13z. Most of the area terminals will see
west or northwest winds becoming northeasterly with time. Weak
seabreeze developing this afternoon to impact GLS/LBX. Cirrus on the
increase tomorrow morning. Again may see some fog around LBX/BYY
areas Friday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 47 77 55 74 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 76 49 78 55 75 / 0 0 0 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 71 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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tireman4
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65
FXUS64 KHGX 211516
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1016 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.UPDATE...
High pressure anchored across the region is producing very weak
near surface winds under clear skies. This should allow for
efficient warming into the average middle 70s, with some spots
warming to near 80 F, across Southeast Texas today. Drier air
aloft will mix down this afternoon and drive mid to late day
humidities into the 30(%)s, possibly a few hours where further
inland humidities bottom out in the mid to upper 20(%)s. Clear
overnight skies and weak winds will have many interior locales
falling to around 50 F by sunrise. Another warm and mostly sunny
day in the areawide middle to upper 70s tomorrow afternoon.
Onshore flow returns that will commence the moisture pump going
into the weekend. A developing Rocky lee low/mid-upper trough on
Saturday will strengthen onshore winds and increase westerly-
northwesterly POPs to low end chances for primarily showers with
isolated thunderstorms. 31

&&
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jasons2k
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I need some rain - like seriously - if it doesn’t rain this weekend (and chances keep dropping) - I’m gonna need to run my sprinklers.
Cpv17
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Next weekend is wet per the 12z Euro. Crickets this weekend though.
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jasons2k
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On another note - this weather makes me want to play hooky!! It’s so beautiful outside right now!!
cperk
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jasons wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:43 pm On another note - this weather makes me want to play hooky!! It’s so beautiful outside right now!!

I play hooky every day since i retired in January. :)
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tireman4
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738
FXUS64 KHGX 220955
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Continued dry weather but with warmer temperatures are expected to-
day as onshore winds resume and mostly sunny skies prevail. A deep
ridging pattern in place over SE TX today will be evolving tonight
and Sat as the next upper low/trof deepens and moves NE across the
South/Central Plains. This more northerly track along with limited
return of moisture (PWs 1.1-1.3") and a persistent cap should keep
POPs low for much of the CWA this weekend even with the passage of
a stray disturbance aloft (Sat) or daytime heating/seabreeze (Sun).

Will keep the low POPs in place for Mon/Mon night with the passage
of the next cold front. Progs of a strengthening cap for Mon could
mean even lower rain chances should this trend continue. A cooler/
drier air mass will be moving into the area Tues behind this front.
Thereafter, a slightly more progressive pattern is expected as the
next upper trof moves in from the west. Onshore winds to return by
late Weds/Thurs out ahead of the next cold front (currently on tap
for late Fri/early Sat). Confidence for elevated POPs for this sys-
tem remain low given the indications of the strong capping persist-
ing. However, given the time of year, some or all of this could be
moot as we move forward. 41

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has drifted into the coastal waters this morning with
light southwesterly component. Landbreeze could take shape near
sunrise then winds come back around to the south and southeast near
noon. Winds should strengthen this afternoon through Saturday as
high drifts away and pressures fall in West Texas as an upper level
s/w trough lifts out. Seas slowly building from 1 foot this morning
to 2 to 4 feet Saturday and then with persistent southeasterly flow
Sunday creeping up further. A cold front moves through SETX Monday
and into the coastal waters Monday evening. Winds picking up and
peaking Tuesday morning and will probably need an SCA at least
briefly. Isolated streamer shower may be possible Saturday but
chances look slim given the poor moisture return. Cap strengthens
Sunday and limits rain chances until near the frontal passage. Brief
window for precip with the fropa.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog on the increase over the southwestern counties and could briefly
impact LBX/SGR this morning. Otherwise VFR with high clouds and
light/variable winds becoming south and southeast. If mixing isn`t
too strong may see fog again Saturday morning at the more
problematic sites LBX/CXO.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 54 75 60 79 / 0 20 30 30 20
Houston (IAH) 80 55 76 61 78 / 0 10 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 72 60 72 64 72 / 0 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Waded
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The plant is on fire again. Weather seems much warmer, drier, and with weaker winds than vs the first fire... I wonder what effects this will have.
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jasons2k
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What few showers there were have now pretty much evaporated...
mckinne63
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Missed a good chance to rain earlier, was really cloudy with grey skies. Now looks like the sun is peeking out. Need some rain to wash this green pollen off of everything. Washed my car today, but I am sure the green stuff will be back on it by morning, if not sooner.
Cpv17
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I doubt it’s going to rain this weekend guys. We might have to wait a while before it rains. Possibly next weekend.
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