March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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One thing that is confusing me is the precipitation forecast from the CPC. They keep on placing us in the above average precipitation, but the Euro is almost completely dry for our area for the next ten days. Plus the past couple times the CPC has put us in the above average precipitation area it never materialized. I’m not really putting too much stock into their forecast like I usually would.
Cpv17
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Models appear to be drying out for this coming weekend now too..geez :roll:
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jasons2k
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Will have to run the sprinklers today for the first time in months. We need some rain.
BlueJay
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It's sprinkling here (barely) and the skies are quite dark.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 251557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current fcst has a good handle on things. Just a few tweaks for
the update, mainly extending fog duration in the Gulf until the
front passes thru that area later tonight. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/
Some areas of fog linger across the forecast region, particularly
across the south and southwest counties, mostly affecting LBX and
GLS. Fog is expected to lift by 15Z today. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to lift during the morning hours and should become
VFR in the afternoon. Winds will be shifting during the TAF period
due to the passage of a weak cold front. Winds will become west
to northwest in the morning and then become north in the afternoon
across the northern half of the CWA. For the southern half of the
CWA, winds will become west to northwest during the morning and
then become north tonight. SHRA expected mostly north of I-10 and
east of I-45 this afternoon as the cold front moves across the
local area. The development of isolated thunderstorms is possible
mainly across the northeastern and eastern counties. Rain activity
will dissipate after 00Z Tuesday with skies clearing through the
end of the forecast period. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/
Line of showers and thunderstorms along the front extending from
near Palastine to near Nacogdoches to Ruston LA. Garden variety
storms but wouldn`t rule out some brief gusty winds and small hail
though probably northeast/east of the CWA. The tail end of the
band should clip the Crockett to Livingston areas eastward this
morning.

Warm and humid across the region this morning with areas of fog
over the southwest areas intruding into Hobby/Pearland
areas...visibility of 1 mile at times with fluctuations around
that. May need a small dense fog advisory for the
Matagorda/Brazoria county region if it gets much thicker.

As the front pushes down across the region today should see some
scattered showers form beneath the cap and as cap erodes this
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to around
80 ahead of the frontal boundary will probably see some isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms. Most of these should be
southeast of a Livingston to Houston to Bay City line. By early
evening the front should be near the coast and offshore more than
10-20nm by midnight. Loss of heating should bring on the demise of
the storms.

Front pushes on southward and dry air overspreads the region
tonight/Tuesday. Skies clearing and should make for nearly a
Chamber of Commerce sort of day. Wednesday expecting the winds to
turn back from the north to the east bringing back an increase in
low level moisture to the southwest areas (still dry over the
north and central and warmer) with the flow increasing Wednesday
night and Thursday. Rain chances increasing Friday over the west
in closer proximity to the upper speed max exit region. Still
looks relatively capped. Friday into Saturday rain chances
increase and Saturday looking like the beginning of the spring
season for storms in SETX. CAPE in excess of 1500j/kg and two
short waves that aren`t quite in phase...(of course this a day 6
forecast and subject to significant change)...could bring a good
chance for soaking rains to much of the area. The associated cold
front should move off the coast Saturday night or early Sunday
morning. 45

MARINE...
Some areas of patchy fog continues possible this morning,
particularly across Matagorda Bay and adjacent nearshore waters.
Light south winds will become southwest to west across the
nearshore waters throughout the day today. Over the offshore
waters, winds should become southwest to west tonight. Winds
across the Gulf waters will become north to northeast and increase
overnight after the passage of a weak cold front. SCEC conditions
are expected early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Seas should remain 3 feet or less across the nearshore waters and
remain 5 feet or less across the offshore waters. Easterly wind
flow will then prevail across the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening. Onshore flow returns Thursday through
Saturday. Another cold front could move across the coastal waters
Sunday with increasing winds and seas in the wake of the front. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 52 73 51 74 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 76 53 73 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 61 69 59 65 / 20 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$
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srainhoutx
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03252019 mcd0239.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeast TX and southwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251710Z - 251945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and gusty wind threat should exist
this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is located over southeast TX and
southwestern LA this afternoon based on recent surface observations
and visible satellite imagery. A thunderstorm has gradually
strengthened along the front near the TX/LA border where diurnal
heating has encouraged MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg to develop per recent
mesoanalysis estimates. Low-level flow across this region remains
generally weak, with the LCH and HGX VWPs showing westerly winds of
25 kt or less in the lowest 3 km AGL. But, mid to upper-level
westerly winds do strengthen with height, and 35-40 kt of effective
bulk shear should be enough to support some updraft organization.
Additional thunderstorms will probably develop this afternoon along
the front and move east-southeastward. Isolated large hail may occur
due to the strong uni-directional flow present above 3 km and some
modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates. Gusty downdraft winds
may occur as well where low-level lapse rates become steepened. With
the large-scale ascent expected to remain minimal across this
region, thunderstorm coverage and related severe threat will
probably remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/25/2019
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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Katdaddy
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A clear cool SE TX morning will be followed by a perfect Spring afternoon. The skies and lighting were beautiful yesterday evening.
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jasons2k
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Rain chances for me Sat Night were consistently 60%. Now they’ve been dropped to 50%. Here we go again....It’s too early in the season for this!!!
Montgomery
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Another nice day ahead! Brisk this morning. 46 in my front yard this at 6:30.
"I'm primarily a lurker. I may occasionally post but don't read it"
mcheer23
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We may not hit 60 on Sunday...
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