February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Geez Ed..you are just raining on everyone's parade...LOL
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

North and west of here expects snow-

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN TONIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HUNT TO FREDERICKSBURG TO JOHNSON CITY TO AUSTIN TO
COUPLAND.

A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN TONIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM
ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LLANO AND NORTHERN BURNET COUNTIES.

AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS
SNOW EVENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM. THUS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN GRASSY AREAS. THE SNOW WILL MELT
TO A SLUSHY MIX ON BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIPPERY BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS.
rnmm
Posts: 352
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:16 am
Location: Santa Fe, Texas
Contact:

It is so nice to see everyone so excited about this event!! Wouldn't it be great if all our areas got oh lets say 6-8 inches of the white stuff?? I know my kiddos would be ecstatic!! :D
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

That Tahiti storm is old news. Great weather there now! ;-)

To entertain redneckweather, yes, it does look like accumulating snow up in your area. Maybe an inch or two. How long will it last? Hard to say. At least a few hours, maybe overnight.
weatherguy425
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 830
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Contact:

wxman- what about the kingwood area?
User avatar
kayci
Posts: 358
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:30 am
Location: Alvin
Contact:

Suuure am glad I don't live in Austin anymore! The only thing I miss is camping in the hillcountry during the WARM summer months.
woody_hawkeye
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 9:48 am
Contact:

Trying to stay on top of this because I want to go out and photograph the snow event. I want to be able to plan the best that I can to be in the best spot in the woods for this. Please try to locate the predicted highest accumulation areas for me north of Houston.
Rich
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:38 pm
Location: Pearland,Tx
Contact:

Hey wxman57/srain, I was looking at the wunderground interactive map and noticed alot of weather stations around Houston showing dew points in the low 40's currently with dew points in the upper 30's north and west of town. I was wondering if this is right along forecast or a little lower than previously thought? I was also wondering if you guys thought the extra cloud cover today will help our chances in any way for those hoping for snow tomorrow...since the temps will be held down today and not have as far to fall?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

HGX Aviation Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THE EROSION WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IN GENERAL HAVE NORTHERN TAFS BECOMING BKN020 AND SOUTHERN TAFS BECOMING
SCT020 THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EVERYONE GOING OVC 1500-2000 FEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE RAIN AREA WIDE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EVENTUALLY COMING INTO THE PICTURE
AS TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE DAY. HAVE INTRODUCED -RASN BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z FOR CLL AND UTS...BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCES WILL COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAF SITES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL START
OUT WITH RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 15Z. AT IAH...HAVE A PROB30 FOR
-RASN BEGINNING AT 21Z.
42
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
kayci
Posts: 358
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:30 am
Location: Alvin
Contact:

Can someone please post where the potential freeze/snow line wil be?
Thank you!
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Hey Greg,
What can we expect here in Orange/LCM area?
Thanks!
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Here is the 2 meter data from the 12z GFS centered IAH

0 02/22 12Z 44 42 348 5 0.00 0.00 553 562 10.8 -19.4 1011.8 0
6 02/22 18Z 57 46 350 7 0.00 0.00 550 561 9.9 -20.3 1013.6 46 -RA
12 02/23 00Z 54 47 4 5 0.00 0.00 550 559 8.6 -19.7 1011.1 16
18 02/23 06Z 47 43 44 7 0.00 0.00 549 559 7.8 -18.5 1013.3 78
24 02/23 12Z 40 39 4 5 0.00 0.00 548 559 5.6 -19.0 1013.1 17
30 02/23 18Z 49 43 357 6 0.01 0.00 547 560 3.3 -17.9 1016.1 98 -RA
36 02/24 00Z 37 36 356 12 0.17 0.01 543 557 -0.2 -19.4 1018.0 100 -RA
42 02/24 06Z 34 33 342 9 0.05 0.00 537 555 -3.0 -24.4 1022.3 100 -SN <===
48 02/24 12Z 33 32 322 8 0.00 0.00 535 554 -3.9 -24.1 1023.2 58
User avatar
wxdata
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

kayci wrote:Can someone please post where the potential freeze/snow line wil be?
Thank you!
This may help- map from the NWS

(click to enlarge)
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

Not sure if it was posted, but worth reading again if it was...

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE
REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE. AREAS NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON WILL HAVE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND END BETWEEN 6
AND 10 PM TUESDAY EVENING.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE FROM MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT
WITH SOME HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE. NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
LIVINGSTON LINE...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST COULD HAVE
TREMENDOUS IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Last edited by TexasMetBlake on Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
polisciaggie
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Not so bad for our aggie and Longhorn friends, although it doesn't look enough to cancel school.
That's the only reason why I want it to snow! :mrgreen:
greg_kfdmtv
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:45 am
Location: Beaumont, Texas
Contact:

snowman65 wrote:Hey Greg,
What can we expect here in Orange/LCM area?
Thanks!
Looks like just a mixture of rain/sleet/snow Tuesday evening. Would be surprised to see any accumulations as surface temperatures will likely be no colder than the middle 30's. Hope I'm wrong and we have some measureable snow. :D
User avatar
singlemom
Posts: 119
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:11 pm
Location: Spring, Texas
Contact:

Candy Cane wrote:Not sure if it was posted, but worth reading again if it was...

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
<snip>

Soooo...when will this appear on the NWS site????
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 535
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:46 pm
Location: Pearland
Contact:

this is very similar to 12/4 event. I would watch the dew points as they continue to fall and into tomorrow. One the rain starts to cool the column the dew point and temps come together. 34F sounds about right if I had to guess. No way to tell where the heavy banding will set-up. in Dec I got 3 inches in Pearland whereas people up north didnt get hardly anything. No more model watching for me...its very close to now casting. I would keep an eye out on local obs into tonight and tomorrow up to our north and west....


ED, no way they cancel school. HISD is notorious for being ultra conservative. On the 12z GFS this close I wouldnt be all worried about that. It will probably flop on the 18z and 0z. NWS is smart to take a blend of the NAM and GFS this close in, IMO...


Paul
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

HPC QPF Update...
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
148 PM EST MON FEB 22 2010


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 23/0000 UTC THRU FEB 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...

...SRN ROCKIES TO WRN GULF STS...
SHRTWV TROF OVR AZ THIS EVEN IS FCST TO SHIFT ESEWD THIS PD WITH A
BROAD REGION OF INCRS DEEP LYRD LIFT SPRDG EWD THRU NM INTO TX AS
THE SYS BCMS MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED. THE SYS WL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE NRN STREAM WITH WEAK UPR JET COUPLING DVLPG. GUID IS
GNRLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE AXIS OF PCPN DROPG ESEWD...BUT THE
GFS IS SHOWG PCPN LIFTG ENEWD. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS GENERATING
FEEDBACK OVR THE RED RVR TNGT AND THIS RESULTS IN STGR LOLVL
FLOW/WAA LIFTG NEWD...ALNG WITH PCPN. MDL DO SHOW INCRSG 8H/7H
CVRG OVR THE SRN ROCKIES THIS EVE THAT SPREADS INTO TX TNGT/TUE.
GULF MSTR IS ALRDY LIFTG NWWD...UP THE RIO GRANDE VLY...AND WL
FUEL AN EXPANDG AREA OF PCPN. THE NRN STREAM IS QUITE STG AND
SEEMS TO BE THE REASON FOR THE MORE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN.
ALTHOU MOST GUID IS FAVORING LGT PCPN...THE LATEST SUITE OF
SREF/GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF HALF INCH LIQ IS SHOW SUPPORT FOR
SOME MOD AMTS OVR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR WRN TX INTO SRN
NM. ALSO...THIS GUID IS SUGGESTING A STRIPE OF MOD AMTS THRU
CNTRL/ERN TX ON TUE ASSOCD WITH THE STGR LOLVL CVRG MAX. COLD AIR
TO THE N WL SUPPORT SNOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYS...WHILE A
MIX OF PCPN TYPES WL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS.
SEE QPFHSD FOR PCPN
TYPE/ACCUMS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

greg_kfdmtv wrote:
snowman65 wrote:Hey Greg,
What can we expect here in Orange/LCM area?
Thanks!
Looks like just a mixture of rain/sleet/snow Tuesday evening. Would be surprised to see any accumulations as surface temperatures will likely be no colder than the middle 30's. Hope I'm wrong and we have some measureable snow. :D

Thanks!. I don't care if it's measurable, honestly. Just to see it this close to March would be cool......
Post Reply
  • Information