February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[sleetstorm]

La La Land...

Is this model also from yesterday, wxman57?

[sleetstorm]

12Z GFS at 60 Hours...notice the 1058mb High in the Upper right of the chart...

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... p_060l.gif

srainhoutx, this computer model depicts southeast Texas getting much in the way of heavy to very heavy sleet/snow during late next week. Needless to say that would be very impressive if does in fact materialize.

Two things. First, that graphic you posted is from yesterday morning's model run, not today's. Today's is here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

Second, as I keep trying to explain, the green precip areas DO NOT take place at the same time that the map is valid. The green shaded areas are precip that fell the PREVIOUS 6 hours. Let's say there's a strong cold front coming through at 6:30pm and it's preceded by a line of storms/showers. The rain moves in around 6pm and is over with by 7pm. The surface temperature at 7pm when the rain ends is 60 degrees.

Now you look at the MIDNIGHT chart and it shows that the surface temperature in Houston is down to 32F (0C on map). And it shows GREEN over us. Does that mean we're getting frozen precip? Nope. That green is the rain that fell between 6pm and 7pm when the temperature was well above freezing. The map doesn't say that precip is falling while the temperature is below freezing, just that SOME precip fell during the past 6 hours.

In the case of Sunday's front, the precip falls ahead of the front, not behind it. No frozen precip.

I am sorry for not completely understanding than model and taking it literal, wxman57.

[wxman57]

La La Land...
http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... p_372l.gif

Is this model also from yesterday, wxman57?

Yes, it's 24 hours old. Here's a link to the newest model guidance from a variety of models:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

[wxman57]

I am sorry for not completely understanding than model and taking it literal, wxman57.

Don't worry about it, sleetstorm. There are meteorologists who don't understand those charts. The trick to determining when the rain is actually occurring is to loop between the maps surrounding the one that shows possible winter precip. For example, if the 60hr map shows precip north of the "0C line", then loop between the 54, 60 and 66 hr map. See where that freezing line is on the 54 map and that's where it is at the START of the 6 hour precip that's on the 60 hr map. Look for green that exists in the same place (behind the 0C line) on the 54hr map as on the 60hr map. If you see some, then that precip actually does occur in the cold air.

[don]

The Canadian may be picking up on what the European is showing...



And the Euro shows the moisture gown by the time the air gets cold enough for anything frozen in southeast Texas...

[wxman57]

Yep, even though the GFS doesn't show it well, looks like another West Gulf Low and another miserable cold rainy period next Friday/Saturday.

[txsnowmaker]

If late next week doesn't bring us anything beyond cold rain, perhaps the potential reinforcing shots of colder air/stormy pattern that others have been discussing will do the trick in the week(s) that follow...

[wxman57]

If late next week doesn't bring us anything beyond cold rain, perhaps the potential reinforcing shots of colder air/stormy pattern that others have been discussing will do the trick in the week(s) that follow...

It looks like cross-Polar flow is setting up late in the week (ECMWF). That means the jet stream drives north into Siberia then south across the Pole, bringing some very cold air into northern Canada by next weekend. No more of this "recycled Canadian air" across the U.S., possibly. We could see some really cold air dip south into the U.S. the last week of February.

[sambucol]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

[sleetstorm]

Feasible lower thirties to twenties if not colder for daytime highs with feasible twenties to teens for nighttime lows?

[sambucol]

Feasible lower thirties to twenties if not colder for daytime highs with feasible twenties to teens for nighttime lows?

That's cold. Possible snow?

[randybpt]

I don't think so, highs in the upper 30's maybe more like temps in 40's depending on cloud cover which in this case would be a good bet no lows in the teens not even close more like upper 20's to near 30. remember guys it is almost march and sun angle is against us. still long ways out but if this pattern was set up in late december or january then i think we would have some problems with deep freeze.

[Portastorm]

I don't think so, highs in the upper 30's maybe more like temps in 40's depending on cloud cover which in this case would be a good bet no lows in the teens not even close more like upper 20's to near 30. remember guys it is almost march and sun angle is against us. still long ways out but if this pattern was set up in late december or january then i think we would have some problems with deep freeze.

I would respectfully disagree. This winter has proven to be a historic one and the larger-scale atmospheric parameters continue to point to a major Arctic outbreak later this month. While your "sun angle" point is a credible one, whatever effect that would have will easily be overridden by cross-polar flow transported into the Southern Plains. Furthermore, with an airmass that stout, it is likely to push the southern jet well south of us ... meaning little cloud cover and what I would consider not "a good bet." Finally, Wxman57 has demonstrated that he doesn't buy into model hype so when he quotes temperatures, you better believe it!

[randybpt]

well, good point bout this being a HISTORIC winter but WXMAN did not quote temps actually that was sleetstorm asking what temps to expect in a form of a question. now being historic is really not what this winter has been for us maybe mid-atlantic states but this winter is really just typical southeast texas winters.....1970's style

[Portastorm]

well, good point bout this being a HISTORIC winter but WXMAN did not quote temps actually that was sleetstorm asking what temps to expect in a form of a question. now being historic is really not what this winter has been for us maybe mid-atlantic states but this winter is really just typical southeast texas winters.....1970's style

Oops! Thanks for pointing that out, randybpt. My bad. I would stand by all my points but the last one!

I guess what I mean is that the entire winter weather pattern for the nation has been historic. Seldom do we see a moderate El Nino accompanied by so many frequent blocking episodes and stratospheric warming like we have seen this year. It has been a historic winter for North Texas and, if you consider the early December snow in parts of SE Texas, it has been somewhat historic there. For my area ... there's been nothing historic about it. But I'll spare everyone more of my whining about the lack of wintry precip in Austin.

I would agree that we are quickly running out of time in terms of longer days, sun angle, etc. But if the sensible weather ends up like many pro long-range mets think, it could indeed overpower the daylight/sun factor in this part of the world. I guess we'll see.

[C2G]

I was told to move last time I mentioned this winter (minus the Dec. 4th snow) has been boring in southeast Texas........so be careful. There's some on this board that take deviations from normal temperatures to heart and consider that plus cold rain EXCITING.
Bring on the heat. Place I'm living in is much more efficient in the summer Vs. winter. My electric bill for that oh so EXCITING arctic outbreak minus precip was the highest I've ever had here in 3 years. That bill is anything BUT exciting.
GFS forecast precip still shows no frozen precip in southeast Texas for the next 7 days, sorry.

[wxman57]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

How "possibly cold"? Low teens or even single digits would certainly be "possible" with cross-Polar flow and an ice pack down through Oklahoma - even in February. It's much easier to get that kind of cold down here given the current snowcover than in December at the start of winter. But just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. There are too many variables to even speculate on temps here for the last week of February and early March. The air is still across the Pole in Siberia. We don't know for sure IF any will cross over and how cold it might be if it does move south through Canada.

[sambucol]

Wxman,
Just how possibly cold are we talking for our part of SE Texas?

How "possibly cold"? Low teens or even single digits would certainly be "possible" with cross-Polar flow and an ice pack down through Oklahoma - even in February. It's much easier to get that kind of cold down here given the current snowcover than in December at the start of winter. But just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. There are too many variables to even speculate on temps here for the last week of February and early March. The air is still across the Pole in Siberia. We don't know for sure IF any will cross over and how cold it might be if it does move south through Canada.

Is the cold air going to be as cold as the pipe-busting cold we had in January? Colder? Thanks.

[Mr. T]

I was told to move last time I mentioned this winter (minus the Dec. 4th snow) has been boring in southeast Texas........so be careful. There's some on this board that take deviations from normal temperatures to heart and consider that plus cold rain EXCITING.
Bring on the heat. Place I'm living in is much more efficient in the summer Vs. winter. My electric bill for that oh so EXCITING arctic outbreak minus precip was the highest I've ever had here in 3 years. That bill is anything BUT exciting.
GFS forecast precip still shows no frozen precip in southeast Texas for the next 7 days, sorry.

lol

You need to find a new hobby. You're the worst weather enthusiast I've ever seen.

[randybpt]

you think you have it bad what bout ranchers,,,,last summers drought meant less hey which in turn means less food for cattle you like beef wait til spring when cattle prices surge up