MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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60% chance of rain tomorrow. That appears to be a lil too high imo. I’d go with about 40%.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu May 30, 2019 9:19 pm 60% chance of rain tomorrow. That appears to be a lil too high imo. I’d go with about 40%.
You’re probably right.

I only got .07” today. Just enough to barely wet the exposed lawn. Need more. Tomorrow or bust.
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jasons2k
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Rain chances today lowered to 50%. We shall see how the day plays out.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday Afternoon]...

Weak high pressure over the area with remnants of yesterdays
storms leaving a boundary along the I-69 corridor over the
southwestern counties and then meandering out over Galveston Bay
and then on to the Sabine Pass area. Blanket of thick cirrus
blowoff from the earlier storms near the Rio Grande covering the
region but thinning and shifting away to the east. Rain cooled air
and wet ground leading to the development of patchy fog over the
area.


SW flow aloft will continue today and will be anticipating a
quick warm up this morning after the cirrus departs and very humid
conditions. Afternoon heating should aid in the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the area today.
Heat index readings should peak in the 98-103 degree range
(welcome to summer). In addition the complex of storms near
Abilene will likely survive the morning lull and re- intensify as
the airmass they will be moving into is far richer in moisture and
should turn southeast toward the College Station area in the
early afternoon hours. CAPE/CIN this afternoon varies greatly in
the different model sounding and trended the short term forecast
toward the GFS solution and anticipate some strong gusty winds
from the storms today. Leaning toward greater coverage along the
I-69 corridor from Wharton to Houston and then arcing up to
College Station area. Rainfall rates should be much like yesterday
brief heavy downpours possible with 2"/hour rates but given the
single- multicellular mode the accumulations shouldn`t exceed 3
inches...far more less than 1 inch amounts. Storms waning quickly
in the evening with the loss of heating. Much lower coverage
Saturday with storms more widely scattered to isolated as the
column dries somewhat and is more capped. One concern is that the
storms on Saturday should have higher bases and probably strong
gusty winds if they can overcome the capping.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Not a lot of issues for the weekend and start of next week with the
upper ridge over the region. Warm temperatures (highs in the lower/
mid 90s possible) with only isolated (mainly afternoon) activity on
tap through the period. Models are indicating an active/wet pattern
setting up for the middle to end of next week. With the upper ridge
flattening in response to the main longwave trof moving across from
the west, disturbances embedded in this flow look to be responsible
for initial rain chances late Tue/Wed of next week. The higher POPs
(possibly) by the end of the week could be due to much deeper moist-
ure (progged PWs ranging from 2.4 - 2.6 inches) surging up from the
lower TX coast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Generally light onshore winds to prevail through the weekend as the
weak frontal boundary over inland portions of SE TX slowly retreats
north/washes out with time. This light SE flow is expected to prev-
ail through the start of next week...perhaps strengthening slightly
by next Tue. No Caution/Advisory flags are anticipated through this
time frame. 41

&&

TROPICAL...

Most of the guidance is showing an area of low pressure
developing over the Bay of Campeche Saturday morning and being
trapped over the Bay of Campeche through Sunday morning. This
large swirl of rich moisture lingers there into early Tuesday
before starting to ride up to the northwest toward the Lower Coast
of TX on Wednesday. The eastern edge of the moisture may be
arriving into SETX as was mentioned in the long term section above
for Thursday/early Friday. 45

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy MVFR ceilings around the region along with patchy fog of
3-5sm early this morning. Anticipating some additional
restrictions of visibility around the area as temperatures bottom
out near sunrise then very rapid improvement. Plan to continue
with the VCSH mid morning through 18z then transition over to VCTS
as the cap erodes. Not confident enough to add any TEMPO
conditions for TSRA except at SGR for the mid afternoon hours.
Overnight patchy ceilings again developing and probably more
reports of fog. 45

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 88 73 91 73 92 / 30 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 90 75 92 75 94 / 50 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 79 86 79 89 / 10 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311540
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1040 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks to today`s POPS as raised them to likely along the
weak boundary that lies draped roughly across the I-10 corridor
and points northward. Other than this main stationary boundary,
there are numerous other smaller scale boundaries that are lying
in wait for the potential of near term convection initiation upon
them. A highly moist and unstable environment is ripe for return
showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Showers
are already beginning to fester up across the Brazos River Valley
and am anticipating more southern coverage across metro through 2
PM. The target hours for discrete cell development across the
central and south central CWA (including Houston metro and
surrounding suburbs) will be between 2 PM and 7 PM. The main
issue from today`s scattered thunderstorms will be slow movers
that put down a quick inch or two that will create minor flooding
/ponding on roadways and low lying areas or, if over a flashy
bayou/waterway, quickly lift levels to bankfull. Lingering rain
and thunder through the early evening hours with location only
the afternoon behavior will ultimately determine. Daytime heating
to around 90 F before the rain will push heat indices into the
lower 100s for a short while. Tonight will remain warm and humid
with slight rain chances for scattered showers/isolated storms
either right near the coast focused along the local breezes or
over the far north from weak energy initiating northeastern Texas
convection atop the building upper level ridge. 31

&&
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DoctorMu
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Incoming MCV over last night's outflow boundary.

Just mowed the lawn. No bust, please!

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tireman4
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671
FXUS64 KHGX 311731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

.AVIATION...
A weak boundary that lies along the US Hwy 59 corridor coupled
with an approaching upper level disturbance and outflow boundary
over North Texas and daytime heating will set the stage for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Added a TEMPO group for most TAF sites for mid/late afternoon.
Skies are expected to clear this evening. Wet grounds and clearing
skies would favor some patchy ground fog but SREF and LAV
guidance not looking too impressive for fog development. A brief
window of MVFR ceilings will be possible between 10-15z before
conditions scatter out by late morning. Winds will be light except
in and near afternoon storms. 43


&&
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DoctorMu
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Jason - there's a cell that *could* be headed your way ...approaching Conroe now. Hopefully it moves south enough for a direct hit.
unome
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woo hoo - they upped our precip chance to 80% since I last looked - watered the whole yard & all the plants today, I may have broken our dry curse !

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3comphtml5.html

if it falls apart, I just may cry - radar doesn't look real promising for much

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jasons2k
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It’s make it or break it in the next 10-20 mins for me. So far, most of the heavy stuff is passing to my north. Just hoping this outflow will gets a tower to fire up just to my west and move over me- will be close call.
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