MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Looks like Canton took a pretty good hit. I swear that place is a tornado magnet.
Cpv17
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This is encouraging:

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jasons2k
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Extremely complex forecast ahead for the area. Here is a brief
sketch of what may lie ahead - I expect that tweaks, potentially
even wholesale changes may be needed in future issuances.

Overnight: a line of strong to severe storms will weaken as it
slowly drops towards Southeast Texas. Sketch out a period of VCTS
at CLL and UTS overnight as to when storms - if any - are expected
to arrive. Very conditional threat here, and there may be no
storms at all.

Tomorrow: a cold front drops into the area. Separated from the
best forcing, there is not a lot of confidence in timing or
strength. General idea tonight is that the front will push through
the northern third to half of the area fairly well this morning,
then slow as it nears IAH. It should stall out, and I end the
forecast period with things in the general vicinity of the Houston
terminals. Use PROB30s for now to highlight most likely windows at
this time.

LBX and GLS: Despite the complexity elsewhere, these TAFs are
fairly straightforward as I stall out the front before reaching
here. If the front pushes more towards the coast, more than a
simple VCTS window may be needed.
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Katdaddy
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A line of showers and thunderstorms are slowly drifting into N portions of SE TX ahead of a weak cool front this morning. These storms should weakened as they approach the Houston area. Expect some streamer showers to move inland along the Upper TX Coast today. The cool front will stall across central portions of SE TX and then drift northward.
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jasons2k
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“Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm”

They may need to update that...
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srainhoutx
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Radar estimates suggest 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates in the heavier showers/storms. It looks like 3 inches so far are common near Brenham with these very slow moving cells. Further West near Lockart, EWX issued a Flash Flood Warning where over 4 inches had fallen earlier.
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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
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878
FXUS64 KHGX 301237
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
737 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.UPDATE...

Line of storms holding together but looks to be slowing. Have sent
a quick update to raise chances along and south of the front
throughout the remainder of the day. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches
possible. Most of the short term guidance allows this convection
to push down into the coastal counties...not that confident of it
getting offshore so will taper POPS down abruptly near the coast.
45

&&

.Previous Discussion...
512 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Outflow boundary drifted out ahead of the weak cold front during
the evening but it appears the cold front (okay cool front)
starting to sag further south and nearing Burleson county...with
the outflow boundary about 20-30 miles further southeast of the
frontal boundary. Showers and 2 or 3 thunderstorms still rumbling
along the outflow boundary and impacting the CLL/UTS terminals for
a few more hours. The trend should be for the storms to wane in
strength but will probably see a few more showers develop near the
boundary. Down near the coast and coming in off the coastal waters
are widely scattered WAA showers. These too will likely continue
to develop and drift inland though a weakening trend is possible
after 6 am. Much of the area covered with multiple layers of
clouds with a narrow band of just partly cloudy/scattered clouds
from near Edna to Wharton to Hobby. The outflow boundary and front
should shift east and southeast throughout the morning with weak
to nil CAA and but with PW of 1.8 to 2" pooled near the boundary.
Daytime heating should be the main catalyst with limited upper
level support and the upper jet. The warm nose between 850-700
erodes over the area and afternoon heating should be sufficient.
Convective temperatures 85-86 should be all it takes.
Linear/veering wind profiles with low wind speeds should lead to
slow moving storms with outflow steering late morning through the
afternoon hours. Greatest rain chances should be in a wide swath
from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Very isolated rainfall
bullseyes of 1-3 inches with many receiving far less. Early
evening storms weaken quickly and may even have a few hours free
of showers. Wind profiles back as front stalls then starts
drifting back northward and the focus for rains shifts northward
into the northern counties early Friday morning through the
afternoon. Will need to watch for possible development with a s/w
moving across the Hill country as this could develop into a
cluster of storms but timing and location may focus this further
west of the area Friday morning but stay tuned. During the day
Friday will probably see the greater coverage (again daytime
heating driven) over the north and then for a weak seabreeze to
develop.

Temperatures although down a degree or two on the highs will still
be above normal overnight and more so to the south of the
boundary. Don`t anticipate any more record high minimum
temperatures though.
45


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Despite the upper ridge starting to build into SE TX from the east,
we could still see some very isolated afternoon development across
northern portions of the FA on Sat (via the weakening front moving
back north) and along the coast on Sun (via the seabreeze). But we
should be drying out by Mon as this ridge settles more firmly over
the area. Daytime highs are expected to respond accordingly...with
max temperatures ranging in the lower to mid 90s (inland).

A series of strong shortwaves moving east (from around the base of
the upper trof out west) will be helping to flatten the ridge over
the region by mid week. Have re-introduced scattered POPs starting
Weds/Thurs as the upper low tracks east across the Southern Plains.
41


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mix of VFR/MVFR early this morning then transitioning to mixed
layers between 3000-7000ft. Band of showers and a few thunderstorm
along the outflow boundary should drift into the region bringing
MVFR ceilings/visibility with the heavier rainfall. Locally lower
with any showers/thunderstorms with 1700-2300z the main window
for the Metro hubs. Light winds becoming outflow driven this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings developing again 03z-08z. Showers and
thunderstorms possible overnight but confidence is low enough that
may only stretch and mention VCSH.
45


.MARINE

Scattered WAA-type showers developing across the coastal waters are
expected to persist through late this morning. This moderate/strong
SE flow should be decreasing by the afternoon as a weak front moves
into SE TX. That being said, have kept SCEC flags in place over the
offshore waters through this afternoon given the current trends. As
high pressure builds into the area (from the north central Gulf) we
should see mainly light/moderate onshore winds through the weekend.
41

.CLIMATE...

Tied the long standing record high minimum at College station
yesterday at 77 degrees...previously 1947.

New record high minimum of 79 set at Hobby yesterday beating the
previous record of 77 degrees set in 1996.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 86 72 86 72 91 / 40 20 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 90 75 90 74 92 / 70 20 40 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 80 86 78 87 / 50 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...45/41
Cromagnum
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Those cells look to be falling apart. Won't be surprised if I get absolutely nothing at my house.
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srainhoutx
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 3m3 minutes ago

Here are the rainfall reports over the past 12 hours: https://bit.ly/2Kg5PYT

A few highlights:
- 4.05" in Somerville
- 2.25" in Navasota
- 1.48" in North Zulch
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BlueJay
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We got some of that lovely rain this morning. The temperature fell to a comfy 68F.
unome
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https://twitter.com/DroughtCenter/statu ... 7663024134

@DroughtCenter
37m37 minutes ago
US #Drought Monitor 5 30 19: Drought contracted in Oregon, Wyoming and central Plains, but expanded in northern Rockies, Texas, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. In Lower 48, 3.3% of area is experiencing drought. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/eddi/
What is EDDI?

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. EDDI is multi-scalar, meaning that this period—or "timescale"—can vary to capture drying dynamics that themselves operate at different timescales; we generate EDDI at 1-week through 12-month timescales.

This webpage offers a frequently updated assessment of current conditions across CONUS, southern parts of Canada, and northern parts of Mexico; a tool to generate historical time series of EDDI for a user-selected region; introductions to the EDDI team; and a list of resources for users to explore EDDI and its applications further.
Why use EDDI?

EDDI can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk by providing near-real-time information on the emergence or persistence of anomalous evaporative demand in a region. A particular strength of EDDI is in capturing the precursor signals of water stress at weekly to monthly timescales, which makes EDDI a strong tool for preparedness for both flash droughts and ongoing droughts.
How often is EDDI updated?

Currently, EDDI is generated daily—though with a 5-day lag-time—by analyzing a near-real-time atmospheric dataset. This lag-time results from the procedures to quality control the meteorological data used to estimate evaporative demand. There is also an ongoing effort to forecast EDDI based on seasonal climate-forecast information.
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jasons2k
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1015 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Morning ragged line of convection is waning as outflow works its
way south of downtown Houston at the bottom of the 9 AM hour.
Expecting this outflow boundary to hang up somewhere near the
coast through the day. CAMs are keeping a surface weakness "slash"
boundary lingering in the I-10 and points south vicinity through
the day. Satellite derived 1.7 inch pwats with a forecast
convective temperature of 90 F has moderate to high end chances
for the redevelopment of southern third CWA afternoon scattered
showers with isolated storms. Maximum temperatures will reach the
upper 80s with a few low 90 F spots today. Heat indices will
likely achieve the upper 90s this afternoon across the southern
half of the forecast area. Similar overnight conditions with a
general southeast breeze becoming more variable near sunrise. With
little change in this moist resident 1.7 to near 2.0 inch
pwat/greater than 70% lower 850mb %RH air mass, expect partially
to mostly cloudy skies going through tomorrow. A western shortwave
disturbance and subsequent area of Central Texas convection moving
through in the near zonal flow will pass across tomorrow afternoon.
This has kept likely daytime Friday POPS in place for this update.
31
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jasons2k
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Looks like the outflow boundary is starting to hang-up and stall. The sun is coming out. Could get interesting this afternoon...
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Texaspirate11
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AHHHH we had a great little downpour...very appreciated by my grass & garden this morning!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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srainhoutx
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Cool front just pushed through NW Harris County.
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Cpv17
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Man the heat out there today is no joke. Feels like the hottest day of the year so far imo.
Cromagnum
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As feared, not a single drop at my house and then the line reformed with vigor to the E/SE. Are we done for the day or another shot tonight? Looking forward to dragging the water hose around all weekend again as it is...
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Belmer
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu May 30, 2019 12:44 pm As feared, not a single drop at my house and then the line reformed with vigor to the E/SE. Are we done for the day or another shot tonight? Looking forward to dragging the water hose around all weekend again as it is...
Not all hope is lost for today... or tomorrow for that matter. With a dying boundary situated over us leaving outflow boundaries in place over the region and a decently unstable airmass, additional storm development is possible later this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to drop copious amount of rain in a short time due to little steering currents.
With the heat of the day tomorrow, once reach our convective temperature, more storms are likely to form along any remaining boundaries that reside overnight. It is that time of the year where there may be a 20-30% rain chance, but if you fall under the lone storm-or-two that develops, you'll have a happy lawn.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ227-237-238-301915-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Galveston TX-Fort Bend TX-
152 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON...EASTERN
FORT BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Manvel, moving northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Pearland, Alvin, Manvel, Fresno, Arcola, Iowa Colony and
eastern Sienna Plantation.
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srainhoutx
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Good soaking going on for those under the thunderstorms that erupted along the frontal boundary. Several HCFCD rain gauges reporting 1 inch in 15 minutes.
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