September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
ccbluewater
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The southern line in NW Harris County starting to line up right over my house.
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srainhoutx
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Stepping out for a bit. Stay aware folks!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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tireman4
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The Weather Company
SEVERE WEATHER
ALERT
Significant Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Sep 19 9:25AM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10:30AM CDT THU ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY... NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...EASTERN WALLER...SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT... AT 923 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BARRETT TO TOMBALL. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. WET GROUND WILL MAKE TREES MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING KNOCKED OVER IN GUSTY WINDS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTHWESTERN PASADENA, BAYTOWN, DEER PARK, HUMBLE, GALENA PARK, TOMBALL, JACINTO CITY, LIBERTY, JERSEY VILLAGE, DAYTON, BEACH CITY, PINEHURST, CLOVERLEAF, DOWNTOWN HOUSTON, KINGWOOD, SECOND WARD, THE WOODLANDS, GREATER GREENSPOINT, SPRING AND GREATER HEIGHTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. &&
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tireman4
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:54 am Stepping out for a bit. Stay aware folks!

Do not be far, we may have to call you back to the Batphone!!!
redneckweather
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All good just south of Lake Conroe Dam. I have a much needed total of 3 1/4" from this system so far. Not so good just east of me a few miles back towards town and into my buddies place in River Plantation. Lots of flooding going on over there.
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brooksgarner
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PWATs are pretty wild today. Lots of moisture to support major hourly totals.
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srainhoutx
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New Flash Flood Emergency Warning coming further S into Harris County
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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davidiowx
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Well I can report that all is good down in Fort Bend county. If the line to the North continues to come down and merge with the inflow, things may get a little hairy this afternoon. The PWATs Mr. Garner posted above looks like the bottom could fall out for those of us on the SW side of town later today.
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF IMELDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL112019
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 319 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF IMELDA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (5 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
2100 UTC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB (29.83 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY:

ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADDITIONAL 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 30 TO 40 INCHES.

ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.

REST OF EAST TEXAS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 8
INCHES.

THESE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TO LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER WPC FORECASTER

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 30.5N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 31.2N 96.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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txbear
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:20 am New Flash Flood Emergency Warning coming further S into Harris County
Probably about time to bug out of my office in the Galleria area, wouldn't you think srain?
sau27
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Looking at satellite and surface obs it is very apparent moist inflow is pumping in very hard. Satellite shows low level clouds being sucked in from the south. Surface obs to the south show southerly winds with dew points at or near 80 degrees indicating VERY moist air.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:53 am Those inflow rates (25 to 40 knots), the dewpoints down around the coast (80 degrees) and the serious moisture (2.0 to 2.2 PWATS) in the area will be a headache all day long. Folks, please stay tuned here, HGX and your local outlets for information.
Nature's firehose. Incredibly concerning, even as the center drifts far away.NNW.

https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status ... 1105349640

Stay safe everyone!
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 957 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN RATES OF THREE TO FIVE
INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEST COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SHORTLY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY PUT AND DO NOT
VENTURE OUT ON ROADWAYS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE, ALDINE, CLOVERLEAF, CHANNELVIEW, NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE,
GREATER GREENSPOINT, SPRING, BARRETT, NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON,
HIGHLANDS, NORTHEASTERN GREATER HEIGHTS, CROSBY, BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT, EASTEX / JENSEN AREA, CENTRAL NORTHWEST,
WILLOWBROOK, HUNTERWOOD, EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE, HIDDEN VALLEY
AND ACRES HOME.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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New Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion out for the Houston Area into Far Western Louisiana.
09192019 mcd0869.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0869
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191509Z - 192109Z

Summary...Life-threatening flash flooding will continue across
portions of southeast Texas associated with Tropical Depression
Imelda. Extremely heavy rainfall will persist and drop south
toward Galveston Bay and the Houston metro.


Discussion...Tropical Depression Imeda is positioned 55 north of
Houston and is migrating north. As a result, expect heavy rainfall
to continue across portions of southeast TX into far west LA.
However, do anticipate the axis of heaviest rainfall to slowly
migrate south over the Houston metro area.

Over the next few (1-3) hours rain rates will remain very high
across this region. However, it is expected that the overall rain
rates will start to decrease by mid-afternoon. This is likely due
to the transition of the mid-level low position and forcing edging
northward which will aid in migrating the moisture flux/transport
away from the instability axis closer to the coast. Anticipate the
axis of heaviest rain/highest rain rates to shift toward Trinity
and Galveston Bay and the Houston metro area. This shift is
associated with the surface and boundary layer convergence
gradient which is farther south of the apparent low circulation.
Another factor that is contributing to the higher rainfall totals
is the training/backbuilding of convection oriented northwest to
southeast toward Hamshire, TX. This moisture feed is expected to
continue with the unidirection flow in place, though the position
should sag south.

Rainfall totals over the next couple of hours will be around 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected. Rain rates of over
3 inches per hour are still plausible as HREF probabilities are
still upwards of 50% for this threshold. Given heavy rain is
moving into areas already saturated from previous rainfall during
yesterdays activity, expect vulnerable soils to become iundated
rather quickly, especially across urban areas. Therefore, we are
continuing to message signicant to life-threatening flash flooding
across this region through mid-afternoon.

Pagano

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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TexasBreeze
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Did the low reform further south overnight? I thought it was in Lufkin as of last night!
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srainhoutx
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Greens Bayou @ US 59 reports 6.24 inches the past hour.
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brooksgarner
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Unfortunate decision to hold class at Houston Public Schools HISD... Flash Flood Emergency means it'll be hazardous for parents to get their kids out of school... and how will Houston's roads look in four hours, when the final bell rings???
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davidiowx
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I think that is the first time I have seen a Civil Emergency Message before.
Waded
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I had to go Atascocita this morning. It was raining hard when I got there. When I left it was Stormapocalypse. Parking lots and roads flooding, incredibly rain, thunder, and lightning. Seriously dark clouds - the automatic lights at the gas stations and such were turning on. Amazing to me how everyday has been worse than the last with this event.
Last edited by Waded on Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
Andrew
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Im in the Garden oaks/ Oak Forest area myself and it is coming down hard.
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