September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cpv17]

I could see this getting as close to lousiana

Louisiana, especially New Orleans seems likely right now.

[Cromagnum]

I could see this getting as close to lousiana

Louisiana, especially New Orleans seems likely right now.

Depends if there is weakness in the ridge. The Euro has a huge and strong ridge firmly in place so it can only go West for now.

[Kingwood36]

Would it keep tracking west all the way to texas or is it to soon to know?

[Cpv17]

Would it keep tracking west all the way to texas or is it to soon to know?

Way too soon.

[ccbluewater]

Euro turning it towards MS/AL/Fl Panhandle. Some of the 12z runs have a very similar look to the track of Andrew & Katrina(not saying that's what Dorian will be..)

[cperk]

That 12z euro run has my attention that's one hell of a shift to the west.

[sau27]

One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.

[Kingwood36]

That 12z euro run has my attention that's one hell of a shift to the west.

What does it show

[cperk]

One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.

I get your point but tropical systems don't always follow climatology.

[Scott747]

The 12z GFS ensembles are now split between the fla panhandle and c la.

[Kingwood36]

The 12z GFS ensembles are now split between the fla panhandle and c la.

Getting a little to close for comfort

[cperk]

One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.

I get your point but tropical systems don't always follow climatology.

About a 175 mile shift to the west.

[DoctorMu]

Euro's gone west into a stronger Gulf storm (after passing through Florida) and landing in MS. Stay tuned.

[jasons2k]

Would it keep tracking west all the way to texas or is it to soon to know?

Way too soon.

It is way too soon, but you can find clues in the modeling. As Dorian makes her way into the Gulf a 500mb trough should be entering the picture up in the Midwest and that is the feature that should pull Dorian north.

The only scenario I see Dorian coming this far west (as of now, anyway) is the monster ridge sending Dorian west across South Florida or the Florida Straits and then she continues west, misses the trough completely and plows into Mexico. One or two members have shown this. Plausible but highly doubtful. Even then - not towards Texas.

There’s not a good scenario on the table - as of right now - that sends Dorian to Texas. Of course anything is possible in the tropics (Exhibit A: Ike), but it’s highly doubtful at the moment.

[stormlover]

if the euro pans out short term, who knows what will happen long term, I mean we are a week away

[jasons2k]

And now 3 Euro members are towards the Upper Texas Coast. It’s gonna be interesting to watch but the vast majority curve it back north.

[Kingwood36]

Im sure more then 3 will point this way in the coming days..fun times ahead

[stormlover]

updated 12z below
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html

this mornings runs below

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html


12z yesterday below
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html

[Belmer]

One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.

It has happened before, even later in the season. Hurricane Ike: September 13, 2008.

Note that in points 2 and 3 the forecast and models had this remaining an 'out to sea' storm as a trough was going to pick it up. Missed the trough and ridge set in... much stronger than forecasted. At points 5 and 6 this was expected to curve up into Florida and the southeast Gulf. Ridge kept on building and shoved Ike southwest into Cuba before turning in our direction. Ike was also a much higher latitude storm in the Atlantic and you don't usually see those type of storms come in the way Ike did. As you said, everything would have to set up "perfectly" but I wouldn't discount anything. Dorian has kind of been it's own game since it formed.

Nobody should be wishing this storm to come anywhere near us.. or for anyone that matter. Unfortunately someone is going to get a direct impact on this and may those in the path be prepared. Dorian is strengthening quickly and will be over a ripe environment over the Bahamas and potentially in the Gulf if it does end up moving that way. It will have a lot of fuel for wherever it sets its eyes on. Plus, I'd rather have power so I can continue watching the Astros and the start of college football with AC in my nice recliner.

[Scott747]

12z euro ensembles have slowed down the large shift to the w over the last 24 hours.

Wide range of solutions with the majority over c fla and into the gulf towards the fla panhandle.

Those that are towards c la are coming in around Broward county. A few get as far w as the Tex/la border and come in between s of Miami and the keys.