September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Operational 12z GFS stops its silliness and looks more realistic....
TexasBreeze
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...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Afternoon)...
Showers have hung in there over the far western counties today and
was expecting these to gradually shift westward but they haven`t
yet. With the loss of heating these should wane and a mostly clear
and dry night will be on tap. Of note on the radar is a clear
signature of the broad-winged hawk migration underway. Rain chances
continue into Wednesday for some pop up showers mainly southwest of
Sealy/Freeport line. The dry air that has spread into the region
will linger on Wednesday with mid/lower level capping getting
stronger throughout the day. Temperatures should climb back up into
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

45

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow night Through Tuesday Night]...
Reduced moisture levels (lower precipitable water values) will be found
across much of Southeast Texas tomorrow night through Thursday, and
expect a majority of the area to stay dry. Temperatures will remain
on the warm side on Thursday with highs mostly in the 90s (generally
2 to 5 degrees above normal). Rain chances return to the area on
Friday as onshore winds begin to strengthen and we start tapping
into portions of the deeper tropical moisture associated with the
weak area of low pressure currently lingering around and to the
north of the Yucatan Peninsula that the National Hurricane Center
is monitoring and expects to move inland over northeastern Mexico
late Friday or Saturday. Some models indicate precipitable water
values getting higher than 2 inches over the weekend, and this
could lead to some locally heavy rainfall (current September rainfall
rankings are 5th wettest at Galveston with 17.85 inches, 3rd wettest
at Houston Hobby with 11.40 inches, and 1st wettest at City of Houston
with 14.76 inches. College Station`s 2.54 inches is more than 5 inches
under their 10th wettest). Slightly lower high temperatures over the
weekend due to the rain will warm back up next week as mid/upper level
ridging builds back into the area from the east and northeast. This
pattern looks to bring drier weather back to the area Monday and
Tuesday with a majority of locations rainfree as September comes
to and end and October begins. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue for the next several days.
Winds and seas will increase late in the week and over the weekend.
Caution flags might be needed. Look for increasing shower and thunderstorms
chances at the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain relatively light across the region but afternoon
humidity values will likely dip into the upper 30 to lower 40
percent range today/Wednesday/Thursday over the northern and
northwestern counties. Although much of the area received abundant
rainfall from T.S. Imelda these northwestern and northern counties
have still got a deficit running and the KBDI across Trinity-Walker-
Grimes-Washington-Austin-Colorado counties and westward all showing
600 or greater KBDI values.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 90 73 90 74 / 0 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 80 87 81 / 0 10 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
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Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
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Texaspirate11
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:07 pm Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
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srainhoutx
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I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
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BlueJay
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:07 pm Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
:lol:

Love it! And, I agree.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:18 am I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
HALLELUJAH!
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tireman4
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090
FXUS64 KHGX 251557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Afternoon]...

Looking like a relatively quiet day across the area today. Onshore
flow with little change in low level moisture and mid level dry
air. Subsidence on the increase per WV this morning and don`t see
any significant changes in the short term portion of the forecast
other than perhaps to add some patchy fog to Thursday morning near
CXO.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/...





.LONG TERM [Thursday through next Wednesday]...

Thursday should stay fairly calm and dry, as convective development
will continue to be inhibited by a lack of moisture transport with
precipitable water (PW) values remaining within the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. Temperatures will continue to sit above climatological norms
for late September, with highs reaching the high 80s to low 90s at
most locations across the CWA. Convective activity will be enhanced
heading into the weekend as onshore flow becomes more amplified with
an eastward shift of surface high pressure. PW values should rise
into the 2+ inch range by Friday evening which, along with an
offshore vorticity maximum associated with the disorganized area of
low pressure located off the Yucatan peninsula, should allow for the
development more widespread diurnally driven convection with the
potential for some periods of heavier rainfall. ECMWF, GFS, and
Canadian are in fairly good agreement that the most significant
activity should occur on Saturday, although the possibility of
localized stronger storms will persist through the duration of the
weekend. By Sunday evening, an upper ridge builds back into the
area and returns us to a pattern of stagnant and unseasonably warm
conditions that will continue into the middle of next week.

Cady


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog may develop for KCXO this morning but that looks to be
the only terminal that may have restricted visibility. T/Td
spreads are only a degree so next couple hours could get some fog.
Otherwise, rest of the terminals look clear based on obs and
night time RGB imagery. Scattered stratocumulus should thin out
today as drier air begins to mix in the boundary layer this
afternoon. Tonight winds should become calm again and we will need
to monitor for patchy fog again.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Light to moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of
the work week with low seas. Southerly winds do increase Friday
through the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This
will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds
may increase to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6
feet. Small craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend
for the offshore waters. This increase in winds may also cause
slight elevated tide levels as well as the threat for rip currents.
We will need to monitor for these conditions as we go into the
weekend.

Overpeck



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 90 73 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 86 80 88 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
DSS.........11
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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:47 pm ...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!
Euro, Canadian, Ensemble are on board. Canadian now brings the front down to about Hempstead and washes it out. Time to turn off the sprinklers - put down sulfur + fungicide for brown patch! :lol:
stormlover
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12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html
Cpv17
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stormlover wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:28 pm 12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html
Yeah, but there’s hardly any precipitation with it. Euro only has about 1” for SETX through 10 days.
stormlover
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still something to watch and a long ways out.
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srainhoutx
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Will need to keep an eye on a surge of deep tropical moisture headed toward the Texas Coast overnight into tomorrow. PW's of 2 inches, possibly near 2.5 look to arrive with a stronger onshore flow and atmospheric conditions favorable for some higher rainfall rate where stronger showers/storms do occur. I do not see anything near what we experienced last week, but those folks that do get under the heavier rain could see a couple of inches in hour. Saturday looks like the best chance to see the best areal coverage for rainfall.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 261148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog has developed from KDWH to KCXO and K6R3 with a few
other areas towards K11R having fog. GOES microphysics RGB imagery
shows this patchy fog developing in other areas. Any visibility
restriction from fog should be in the 2 to 5 mile range. For now
the fog has not affected any other TAFs except for KCXO. We do
expect VFR conditions to continue. Moisture will increase tonight
into Friday morning so we may need to look harder at ceilings/fog
in the extended portions of the TAFs.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Patchy fog has developed from Conroe to Cleveland this morning. This
fog may expand some but there are little signs of that happening on
the GOES microphysics RGB imagery. Overall it looks like today will
be a repeat of yesterday. GOES derived precip water imagery shows
low precip water values over the area indicating drier air and area
AMDAR soundings from airplanes show very dry air from 900mb up to
600mb. Given mixing during the day, doubtful there will be much in
the way of cloud cover for today.

There is a plume of higher moisture with precip water values above 2
inches down in the west central Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. This
moisture should begin to advect into the Upper Texas Coastal areas
tonight into Friday morning. We might see shower activity increase
after midnight tonight over the Coastal Bend into Matagorda Bay. The
NAM may be a tad fast with this advection of moisture but it looks
like most WRF model runs and HREF are showing an increase in shower
activity. As a result the forecast will reflect an increase in rain
chances for these areas.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Overall there is not much change in the marine forecast. Light to
moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of the work
week with low seas. Southerly winds should increase Friday through
the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This will allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds may increase
to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6 feet. Small
craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend for the
offshore waters. Stronger southerly winds may persist into Monday.
This increase in winds may also cause slight elevated tide levels as
well as the threat for rip currents. We will need to monitor for
these conditions as we go into the weekend.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 72 93 74 94 / 0 0 30 10 50
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 75 90 / 0 0 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 81 88 / 10 10 20 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Overpeck
stormlover
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.
Cpv17
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stormlover wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:58 pm http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.
Meh, looks boring.
Andrew
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Still not seeing a "true" cold front yet on the models. The GFS was indicating a strong cold front during the beginning of October for several runs earlier this week, but that has since disappeared for the most part. Now the GFS and ECMWF, for the most part, are pushing the colder air east. Looking at mid/upper-level flow most models are actually indicating a pretty zonal setup for the foreseeable future. For me personally, I enjoy the warmer weather, but I know many here are looking for that first feeling of fall.
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Cpv17
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This CAG feature has my attention. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Katdaddy
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Scattered showers streaming inland across Matagorda and Brazoria Counties this morning. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend with an increase in tropical moisture. Onward to October and hopefully some cooler weather.
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