October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

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Ptarmigan
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Super Typhoon Hagibis is quite a large super typhoon. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 155 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 368 miles from the eye! :shock: :o
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2019web.txt

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WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 020    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 139.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 139.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 25.2N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 27.4N 137.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 30.0N 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 32.6N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 39.7N 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 139.5E.
10OCT19. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726
NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 61 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
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snowman65
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:30 pm
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.
Reminder...winter is this weekend, followed by summer starting Monday until further notice. :lol: :lol:
BlueJay
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:53 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:30 pm
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.
Reminder...winter is this weekend, followed by summer starting Monday until further notice. :lol: :lol:
Sounds good! Thanks for the heads up, snowman65!
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srainhoutx
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Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need it for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.
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10102019 12Z 12km NAM 28 namconus_T2m_scus_28.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:19 am Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.
Weather-gasmic!

I'm going to sit outside all day tomorrow on Northgate, sip bourbon, and give the Roll Tiders hell.
Team #NeverSummer
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Katdaddy
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The cold front will arrive tomorrow with gusty N winds.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...Strong gusty north winds developing Friday in the wake of a
cold front...

.Friday morning a strong cold front will move through the region
ushering in gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30
mph.

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-
437-438-110315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0012.191011T1600Z-191012T0000Z/
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Fort Bend-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Houston-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Baytown,
Cleveland, Clute, Coldspring, Conroe, Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton,
Devers, Dickinson, First Colony, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Groveton, Houston, Huntsville, La Marque,
Lake Jackson, League City, Liberty, Livingston, Mission Bend,
Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pecan Grove, Rosenberg, Shepherd, Stowell, Sugar Land,
Surfside Beach, Texas City, The Woodlands, Trinity, and Winnie
1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday.

* EVENT...North winds 15 to 20 mph gusting to near 30 mph in the
wake of a cold front.

* TIMING...Cold front moving south through the area with gusty
north winds in the wake of this front likely reaching the
Huntsville area around 10 am and Houston by 11 am and Galveston
around noon.

* IMPACT...Lightweight objects or objects with a large surface
area may be pushed or tossed by the strong wind gusts. Hazardous
driving conditions will be possible on elevated roadways or high
profile vehicles traveling on east to west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:19 am Very impressive shot of Canadian air associated with the front tomorrow. Better have a jacket ready because you'll need for the afternoon rush hour and evening plans.

Most of the rain will be north of here, but at least a change for 3 days. The weekend should be nice.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

A strong cold front will sweep across SE TX on Friday ending the current heat and ushering in a cold Canadian air mass.

Front is clearly defined on radar over NC TX this afternoon and surging southward. Such shallow, dense, and cold air masses tend to move faster than model guidance suggests especially given the intensity of the cold air over eastern Colorado with many locations currently in the 20’s. Amarillo is currently 55 compared to 93 at Austin. Front will plow southward overnight and arrive around College Station near sunrise and reach the coast by noon or early afternoon. High temperatures ahead of the boundary will reach the upper 70’s and low 80’s followed by a sharp temperatures drop of 10-15 degrees with the frontal passage and onset of strong N winds of 15-25mph with gust to 35mph. Temperatures will continue to fall behind the front with strong cold air advection in place and cloud cover. Many areas will fall into the upper 50’s by late afternoon along and NW of US 59 and low to mid 60’s SE of US 59. Gusty winds will make it fell much colder especially when compared to the lower 90’s of today.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead, along, and just behind the front on Friday with a few strong storm possible. Rainfall amounts will be generally in the .25 to .75 of an inch range.

Strong cold air advection continues on Friday night with N winds of 15-20mph continuing to bring a cold Canadian air mass into the region. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s over much of the region. Momentum transfer of the cold air over top of the still very warm Gulf waters will result in very strong winds along the coast and offshore on Friday night with sustained speeds of 20-30mph and gust over 40mph likely. Skies begin to clear on Saturday morning, but temperatures will only make the upper 60’s to near 70 for highs as cold air continues to spill into the area from the north.

Clear skies and a weak NE wind on Sunday AM will result in the coldest temperatures in the last 6 months over the area with locations NW of a Columbus to Cleveland line falling into the 40’s and most everywhere else in the 50’s. Coastal locations will likely stay in the mid 60’s with the still 80 degree water temperatures nearby.

As the cold Canadian high moves east late Sunday winds will swing back around to the SE and allow moisture and warm air to surge back into the region by Monday. Will go with daily rain chances of 30-40% Monday-Wednesday ahead of our next front sometime Wednesday into Thursday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Big storms up in the DFW area tonight.
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Katdaddy
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A line of showers and thunderstorms are moving across N portions of SE TX this morning ahead of the cold front approaching SE TX. A theme song for today and this weekend from the new Goo Goo Dolls album: Autumn Leaves. Yep, get ready for a Fall transition this morning across the Houston-Galveston areas as the front pushes offshore around noon. An awesome SE TX Fall weekend ahead. Enjoy!
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
754 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT.

* AT 754 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CONROE DAM, OR NEAR CONROE,
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CONROE AROUND 800 AM CDT.
SHENANDOAH AND WOODLOCH AROUND 810 AM CDT.
CUT AND SHOOT AROUND 820 AM CDT.
PORTER HEIGHTS AROUND 830 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.

Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front moving across SE TX.

Cold front is currently located just NW of the US 59 corridor and moving to the SE. Temperatures behind the front are falling into the 50’s quickly with Caldwell down to 52 and Brenham 58 with N winds of 20-30mph. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and behind the boundary and this activity will continue as the front progresses southward.

Based on upstream temperatures, will likely need to lower temperatures for today with most areas falling into the 50’s this afternoon away from the coast. This combined with the strong N wind is going to make for an abrupt difference compared to the low 90’s of yesterday.

Cold air advection will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the mid 40’s up north to lower 50’s for much of the area and near 60 along the coast. Clouds look to hang tough through the night and now skies may be slower to clear on Saturday which may keep many areas in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s for much of the day on Saturday. If skies do not clear on Saturday temperatures could remain in the 50’s and with continued NNE winds…it is going to feel “cold”

Warm front will begin to back northward late Sunday and moisture levels rapidly deepen late Sunday into Monday as the warm front moves across the area. Rain chances will be increasing for the first part of next week and some of the rainfall could be heavy at times.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Kludge
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I got more rain (0.79") in one hour this morning than I've had in total since mid July. That was rough. :cry:
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jasons2k
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Solid red line until it gets to my house, then it splits around me.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:40 am Tornado Warning cancelled. Front is pushing in quickly. Temperatures have dropped to the Upper 50's in College Station and San Antonio. Those 'colder' temperatures will continue to advance SE this morning. Showers/storms may continue well behind the front throughout the day.

Look for rain chances to return early next week as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific, deep tropical moisture from the SW Gulf and another weaker slow moving frontal boundary combine to increase rain chances Monday through Wednesday at least. Enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
The rain (surprise!) has been s pleasant change: 0.65 in IMBY. Temp has dropped nearly 30°F. Windy and cloudy. It's nice to stop sweating.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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In Orkando at Mouse World. Stay safe. Just saw radar.
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:26 am Solid red line until it gets to my house, then it splits around me.
That's what kept happening to us last year! We were having to water things, while our neighbors were slogging through the mud.

Currently light north wind here in northern Brazoria Co. Things are VERY humid. 82 deg-F.

Wifey currently sitting on a plane in Orlando airport trying to get home. There's a hold on incoming flights to IAH, so they pushed back from the loading ramp to get their on-time departure set then rolled back to park for more than an hour. :|
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jasons2k
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Glad some folks got some much-needed rain.

I had .10”
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Line came right at my house. Then went north and south without as drop.
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