November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.
User avatar
Srain
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:00 pm
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:00 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.
Our neighbors in Louisiana might beg to differ with your "yawn". Rather chilly temperatures will accompany the deep Eastern trough.
Attachments
11042019 CPC 610temp_new.gif
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Srain wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:00 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm crickets.......
Yeah. There’s not really too much to talk about right now. Nothing interesting on the models for us anytime soon. We should have a normal fall front passing through on Thursday and maybe up to an inch of rain in spots of southeast TX this week. There’s a really big front on the models around next Monday, but the GFS and Euro both have the core of the cold missing Texas well to our east and we just get the edge of it here. Yawn.
Our neighbors in Louisiana might beg to differ with your "yawn". Rather chilly temperatures will accompany the deep Eastern trough.
I agree with that! Looks like it’ll definitely be colder in Louisiana than southeast TX. Positive PNA I’m assuming.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

A mostly cloudy warm day with a slight chance of showers. Expect some patches of fog and mist during the morning commute.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2019-11-05 at 6.27.16 AM.png
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

We will need to keep an eye on a strong cold front arriving late Sunday night into Monday. Super Typhoon Halong re curving in the Western Pacific toward the Gulf of Alaska/Bering Sea may reshuffle the upper air pattern enough to bring another near freezing chill to our Region. Folks further East may see the coldest air of the season. The ECMWF suggests a near 1050mb Artic High drops into the Plains behind this surge of cold air.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Bring on the cold front train! Lets keep it rolling into January.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

A little warmer today than originally forecast. DP of 68°F is the kicker for November - yuck.

That changes Thursday with cooler weather penetrating to stay. The fly in the ointment are on and off periods of rain as impulses out of northern Mexico and a second front bring disturbed weather...
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...

We`ll continue to see temperatures that are near or above seasonal
averages for the first half of the week, but cooler and more
active weather will be back in the picture with a couple cold
fronts expected to sweep through the area late this week and early
next week:

- The first front looks to come through the area on Thursday
afternoon. This should allow highs to get pretty toasty near the
coast, but cooler far inland. Look for showers and thunderstorms
along the front, and lingering into Thursday night.

- Another front arrives Monday to put an end to any warmup before
solid onshore flow can return. The lack of return flow should
also limit shower and storm potential, but moisture may recover
enough to avoid a completely dry frontal passage.

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Closely monitoring area visibilities early this morning where
some locations (mainly west of I-45 at 3 AM) are flirting with
1/4 to 1/2 mile readings. If the lower numbers become a little
more widespread, we`ll likely be issuing a Dense Fog Advisory.
Look for improving visibilities to begin shortly after sunrise.
The combination of increasing Gulf moisture, a weak boundary
in the area and daytime heating could allow for some showers to
develop today (already seeing some off Galveston Island, the
Bolivar Peninsula and parts of Chambers/Liberty County). Partly
to mostly cloudy skies are anticipated for much of the day today
with high temperatures warming up into the mid 70s at the coast
to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland (near to slightly above
normal for early November). More low cloud and possible fog
development can be expected tonight through tomorrow morning.
Will carry slightly cooler temperatures for both tonight and
tomorrow with rain chances close to zero.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

By Wednesday evening, our first of two cold fronts will be
crossing the Red River into North Texas. The midlevel pattern is
not terribly conducive to a strong frontal push, but the NAM and
GFS suggest enough ripples crossing the area in relatively zonal
flow, plus strong consensus for a 1040 high riding down the lee
of the Rockies that should help force the front through our area
on Thursday. Additionally, abnormally high moisture levels in
North Texas should help fuel convection, and if we can get an
organized cold pool on frontal convection, that could help boost
the strength of any front that may begin to flag...at least, at
the surface.

Because the front just aloft in the 925-700 mb layer looks to lag
behind the surface front by several hours, I`m coming around to
the GFS` idea of having some trailing showers into Thursday
evening, at least in the coastal half of the area (and so does the
Euro). FWIW, while the extreme moisture in the frontal area from
North Texas is starting to tail off, the EPS keeps 97-99th
percentile precipitable water values near the coast into Thursday
night. As long as that moisture and the front aloft do lag, we
should manage to squeeze out some more showers.

The GFS does go so far as to suggest heavy rain in this post-
frontal rain, but unless we can really tap into elevated
instability, I`m not so sure about that. CIPS analogs do show an
increasing signal for 2" of rain in the area associated with
fropa, so it`s something to keep an eye out for.

The surge of colder air will obviously make for some chillier
nights Thursday night, and especially Friday night. The inland
half of the area looks to see lows Saturday morning dip below 40
degrees, and might even flirt with freezing up towards Crockett.
We should start to see a rebound in temps deeper into the weekend
with winds gaining an onshore component Saturday into Sunday.

After that bit of a rebound Sunday, another front arrives Monday
morning (give or take a bit...perhaps as early as Sunday night or
as late as Monday evening). This front will put a hard end to any
warmup before solid onshore flow can return. The lack of return
flow should also limit shower and storm potential, but moisture
may recover enough to avoid a completely dry frontal passage. The
GFS only has 1.25 inches of precipitable water, and the EPS mean
comes in between 1 and 1.25 inches, so...rain is no sure bet with
this frontal passage.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

12z Canadian is wild.
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 530
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:21 pm 12z Canadian is wild.
ICON, CMC and GFS are all pretty cold and wet.

EURO was quite warmer than those 3.
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

This weather is so boring I'm already looking forward to cane season 2020....
I hate winter.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Any chance of severe weather Thursday? I see we are likely gonna get thunderstorms
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:12 pm Any chance of severe weather Thursday? I see we are likely gonna get thunderstorms
Models aren't showing much CAPE or a wind environment that would support severe weather. I think we should be in pretty good shape.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

harp wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:48 pm You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....
That 00z GFS sure did raise an eyebrow, didn't it? Amazing how much cold air is brought south so early in the year.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

harp wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:48 pm You wanna have some fun? Look at the 0Z GFS....
The 1050+mb highs the GFS showed a couple days ago are back again.
869MB
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:44 am
Location: Katy, TX
Contact:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Two frontal passages will dominate the focus of this forecast
period.

- The first front on Thursday will bring showers and
thunderstorms. The strongest storms may bring briefly torrential
rainfall, but potential for more widespread excessive rain is
more limited.
- The second front is set for early next week. There is
significant uncertainty in both how cold (and how quickly) the
post-frontal air will be, as well as how much behind the front
precipitation will linger. This could, and probably already has,
started speculation about wintry precip on Tuesday. But any such
speculation would be premature, so let's just put a bookmark
here and revisit it later.


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are found across Southeast Texas
early this morning with temperatures at 3 AM ranging from around
60 in and around the Conroe area to around 70 at the beaches.
East to southeast winds today will allow for a warmup with high
temperatures expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Looks
like one more dry day for the area. A general increasing cloud
pattern can be expected tonight with increasing rain chances
coming back into the picture during the day on Thursday as the
next cold front moves into the area. Look for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with this front as it works its way
across the area during the day, and increasing north to
northeast winds and falling temperatures after the boundary
moves on through (the lowest temperatures for the day on
Thursday will occur in the evening behind the front). Lowering
rain chances from north to south along with continuing falling
temperatures can be expected Thursday night (lows will bottom
out in the low to mid 40s inland and in the low to mid 50s near
the coast.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

At the open of Friday, the surface front should be well through
there area, as a 1035ish high sits over Missouri. That said, the
850 mb front is only just offshore in the GFS, and more or less
over the coast in the Euro, so I keep some lingering rain chances
right on through much of the day on Friday, but I'm probably being
a bit conservative/slow in clearing those rain chances out.

Though cold advection will likely be ongoing on Friday, you could
probably guess that based on the surface high being near St Louis,
the coldest air should be to our east. As a result, don't expect
temperatures to fall through the day on Friday, but...between the
weak cold advection and still mostly cloudy skies, and maybe some
evaporation still...well, don't expect it to get too warm on
Friday, either.

For the weekend, and particularly Sunday, winds should finally
gain back some onshore component, and with southwest flow just
aloft, we'll also get a return of warm advection at 850. This
should set up a nice, gradual warming trend and fair weather with
generally more sun than clouds. All in all a pretty nice, albeit
noticeably cooler than typical, weekend. Put on a jacket or a
sweatshirt, it'll be great.

We'll shift back into anticipating a cold front as we go from
Sunday night into Monday. Skies should be much cloudier and lows
considerably higher Sunday night into Monday. Earlier about 18
hours apart, the GFS and Euro have come together somewhat on
timing. We should generally expect a front right on our doorstep
to the northwest Monday morning, reaching the Houston metro around
mid-day, and pushing into the Gulf Monday afternoon. Along with
that, rain chances will start to boost towards dawn and stay
relatively high into Monday night. The key word in that sentence
is "relatively" The GFS is decently wet and has more precip than
the Euro, which is probably not a big surprise given that
precipitable water is up to 1.75 inches, while the EPS ensemble
mean is more in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. If we're closer to
1.25 inches, this front will be considerably drier.

What'll really cause some buzz is that the 00Z GFS is all about
some freezing rain and sleet, mainly to the north and northwest of
Houston on Monday night. So...is that gonna happen? Well, 6 days
out, if I'm going to answer honestly, I have to say there's a
nonzero chance. But, y'all - this is 6 days out, let's chill. This
setup is going to hinge on very small margins, and as much as I
wish I were that good this far out, I'm not. I do know the GFS has
a history in being too aggressive with cold air outbreaks in
winter, and while there've been steps to improve that, this may
still be a concern. And, uh...the Euro doesn't have this at all,
and this is a range in which the Euro is probably more reliable at
this point. Also, looking at the GEFS, only two members have snow.
Given the relatively short period for moisture return, I'm also a
bit unsure that we'll see precip lingering long enough to see
sufficient influence from the incoming cold air.

So, what can we say about Monday night? Well, the responsible
thing to do is acknowledge that there may be an overlap of cold
air and lingering precip, and so we'll be sure to check in on this
as we get closer. As the forecast goes, I hold some slight chance
PoPs into Tuesday. For temps, I conservatively stick close to,
but a little cooler than, the NBM. As a result, the explicit
forecast probably flirts with introducing snow, but stays all
rain, with the weight of the Euro and the bulk of GEFS members
taking me in that direction. This is the more likely outcome, and
the direction I'll take with the forecast unless future data
supports otherwise. Also, "Bah, humbug".
Last edited by 869MB on Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Another warm and partly cloudy Fall day on the way for SE TX.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2019-11-06 at 5.18.05 AM.png
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

The overnight AFD from the NWS is worth reading. A little humor is thrown in too. I’m enjoying this weather while it lasts.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Next week looks rather intriguing and could bring a very active weather pattern for areas from the Rockies on East as well as our Region and the Gulf Coast States. The ensembles do suggest colder and wetter weather may well be in the cards, but beyond 5 days with a highly volatile upper air pattern developing, a tempered approach is necessary. What I do see are some indication of an upper trough extending well SW of Texas into Mexico and on NE to the Great Lakes. The fly in the ointment is the possibility of a Coastal Low organizing mid to late next week after the next very chilly airmass next Monday night. The WPC has really increased the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for drought stricken areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley in the Day 6 to 7 timeframe. We will need to monitor that potential NW Gulf Low development closely as it has the potential to bring a variety of weather worries to the Southern half of Texas extending well to our East.
Attachments
11062019 AM Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
11062019 WPD Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 63 guests