December 2019: Warming Trend/Weekend Rain/Christmas Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.
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snowman65
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:53 pm The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.
it's always in the long range....that's the problem this year. Never verifies.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:53 pm The GFS is showing our source region loading up. Only problem is that it’s in the long range, of course.
it's always in the long range....that's the problem this year. Never verifies.
We haven’t seen this, this year. We haven’t seen the upper level pattern, severity of cold or placement of it.

I could see it coming several days ago. The first step was making sure the progression of the Pacific kept in sync. The second was the cross polar flow. The third was the southward movement into NW canada.

All of that has happened as the EPO tanks. It’s a great set up for us to deliver cold the 2nd week of January and thereafter.
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Cpv17
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I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.
harp
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:26 pm I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.
Explain, please.
Cpv17
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harp wrote: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:44 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:26 pm I like what I’m seeing at the end of the 12z Euro.
Explain, please.
The Euro shows building cold in our source region slowly inching south and it shows a big trough/low pressure system really far south over the Baja. Hopefully it’ll eject east and not northeast if that does happen to verify.
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Thanks
Cpv17
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0z Euro is awesome! 2-4” of rain over the next 10 days. Bring it on please!!
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snowman65
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BBBRRRRR.......
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Katdaddy
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The epic Upper TX snowfall 15 years ago this evening.
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jasons2k
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What beautiful weather! It’s always nice when you pick up relatives at the airport and they go on and on about how gorgeous it is outside. Went cruisin’ with the windows down and moonroof open. Merry Christmas everyone!!
Cpv17
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Katdaddy wrote: Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:22 pm The epic Upper TX snowfall 15 years ago this evening.
I remember the 2004 event very well! I was outside sitting on our front porch when the first flakes started to fly. Will go down as something I’ll never forget! Especially for my region in Wharton County. We got dumped on! One of the best days of my life, for sure!
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Merry Christmas to all our Wx Infinity Family. I wish each of you a Blessed Christmas with your Family and Friends!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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cperk
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Merry Christmas to all my wx infinity members,and i look forward to reading and discussing all the snow and ice the New Year will bring.
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Ptarmigan
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Merry Christmas!
Cpv17
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Merry Christmas everyone!
harp
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The GFS has been hinting for the last 3 runs or so of a motherload of cold coming down around January 11th. The 12Z run indicates it as well. That's fairly consistent, especially for that far out. Anyone else notice this?
Cpv17
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harp wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:59 am The GFS has been hinting for the last 3 runs or so of a motherload of cold coming down around January 11th. The 12Z run indicates it as well. That's fairly consistent, especially for that far out. Anyone else notice this?
Yes and the warm biased Euro has also been turning colder towards the end of its run.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:59 pm
harp wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:59 am The GFS has been hinting for the last 3 runs or so of a motherload of cold coming down around January 11th. The 12Z run indicates it as well. That's fairly consistent, especially for that far out. Anyone else notice this?
Yes and the warm biased Euro has also been turning colder towards the end of its run.
Again, follow the Pacific trends and you’ll follow our source (or lack of) of cold. I’m standing by my original prediction of a solid blast of cold air materializing the end of the first week of the year.
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snowman65
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Right now anything under 65 is a WIN lol....I still think we dont see anything like we did in November for the rest of the season. It just isnt there this year.
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