Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Let's take a look at Georgia. Their new cases peaked on April 7th with 1,598 cases. Governor Kemp opened the state back-up on April 24th. On April 24th, The New York Times wrote an opinion piece called "Why Georgia Isn’t Ready to Reopen, in Charts." Georgia was billed as the 'guinea pig' that was going to end in disaster, and would need a 2nd lockdown after a 2nd wave.

So what happened? On May 13th, Georgia reported 579 new cases. The cases have been trending down. There was no 2nd wave and I don't see a 2nd lockdown coming anytime soon.

In short, most of the pundits predicting gloom and doom for Georgia were completely wrong.
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DoctorMu
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I don't think so.

Sweden will have a worse economic contraction than the US per macroeconomic models in 2020, and already have the US equivalent of 120,000 dead. and no sign of new case reduction.

US is on a slow decrease overall, slowdown ion NY, NJ, but picking up elsewhere.
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DoctorMu
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Something real.

Sorrento and Mt. Sinai are teaming to test an antibody cocktail with STI-1499. goes after the mechanism, preventing SARS-CoV 2 from hijacking ACE2. STI-1499 prevents docking of the virus with the enzyme.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3575064-s ... us-19-cure

That is potentially very exciting as it blocks the cascade that causes lung and heart damage at the source. Like shutting off flow of Gulf moisture.

Depending on the binding site, the ability of STI-1499 to work as COVID proteins mutate over time could work better than herd immunity or even a vaccine...and you might get herd immunity as a bonus. We'll see.

STI-1499 has been only used in vitro (petri dish), but will be in clinical trials as part of a cocktail at Mt Sinai soon.

https://www.biospace.com/article/sorren ... effective/
unome
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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 286096.php

Using cellphone data, national study predicts huge June spike in Houston coronavirus cases
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Ptarmigan
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unome wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 286096.php

Using cellphone data, national study predicts huge June spike in Houston coronavirus cases
Here is the link of the study using cellphone data.
https://policylab.chop.edu/covid-lab-ma ... -community
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Ptarmigan
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Simulated Sunlight Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar ... 74/5841129

Sunlight does sterilize and destroy COVID-19 virus. 8-)
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 9:50 pm Simulated Sunlight Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar ... 74/5841129

Sunlight does sterilize and destroy COVID-19 virus. 8-)
If we could only get the sunlight on the inside. :lol:

The good news is that we don't think SARS-CoV is transmitted well on surfaces. It's the aerosol and droplets. Wear those masks!

With the new Lance paper out today testing 96,000 patients, HCQ is a bust, actually increasing the death rate and cardiac arrhythmias substantially.

Some guarded good news - Dr. Fauci stated today that a vaccine by December is conceivable.
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Does the pathogenesis of SAR-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7175867/
Our epidemiological analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic clearly indicates a decrease of prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living at altitude of above 3,000 masl. The reason for decreased severity of the global COVID-19 outbreak at high altitude could relate to both environmental and physiological factors.

Environmental factors may influence the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 at high-altitude. Indeed, a high-altitude environment is characterized by drastic changes in temperature between night and day, air dryness, and high levels of ultraviolet (UV) light radiation (United-States-Environmental-Protection-Agency 2017). In particular UV light radiation A (UVA) and B (UVB) is well known to be capable of producing alterations in the molecular bonds of the DNA and RNA, and thus UV radiation at high-altitude may act as a natural sanitizer (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020a; Zubieta-Calleja and Zubieta-DeUrioste 2017). In relation to SARS-CoV-2, while complete disinfection cannot be achieved by UVA and UVB, these radiations should shorten the half-life of any given virus (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020b). It is clear that, all together, these factors may dramatically reduce the “survival” capacity of the virus at high-altitude, and therefore its virulence. Finally, due to the lower density of air and greater distance between molecules at high-altitude, the size of the airborne virus inoculum must be smaller than at sea level.

Although the data of the present study suggest a strongly decreased pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 in high-altitude, there is yet no evidence of an underlying physiological mechanisms that could affect to severity of infection. However, there is a positive correlation between the infection rate of SARS-CoV-1 and ACE2 in pulmonary epithelial cells. Importantly both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 bind to ACE2 (Lu et al. 2020; Rothan and Byrareddy 2020; van Doremalen et al., 2020), and thus a putative decrease of ACE2 expression in pulmonary endothelia in high-altitude inhabitant could represent a physiological protective for the severe and often lethal pulmonary edema.
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jasons2k
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Space City Weather provided an update today on this topic. It’s worth the read. Those guys do a great job.

https://spacecityweather.com/revisiting ... -in-texas/
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:51 pm Does the pathogenesis of SAR-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7175867/
Our epidemiological analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic clearly indicates a decrease of prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living at altitude of above 3,000 masl. The reason for decreased severity of the global COVID-19 outbreak at high altitude could relate to both environmental and physiological factors.

Environmental factors may influence the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 at high-altitude. Indeed, a high-altitude environment is characterized by drastic changes in temperature between night and day, air dryness, and high levels of ultraviolet (UV) light radiation (United-States-Environmental-Protection-Agency 2017). In particular UV light radiation A (UVA) and B (UVB) is well known to be capable of producing alterations in the molecular bonds of the DNA and RNA, and thus UV radiation at high-altitude may act as a natural sanitizer (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020a; Zubieta-Calleja and Zubieta-DeUrioste 2017). In relation to SARS-CoV-2, while complete disinfection cannot be achieved by UVA and UVB, these radiations should shorten the half-life of any given virus (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020b). It is clear that, all together, these factors may dramatically reduce the “survival” capacity of the virus at high-altitude, and therefore its virulence. Finally, due to the lower density of air and greater distance between molecules at high-altitude, the size of the airborne virus inoculum must be smaller than at sea level.

Although the data of the present study suggest a strongly decreased pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 in high-altitude, there is yet no evidence of an underlying physiological mechanisms that could affect to severity of infection. However, there is a positive correlation between the infection rate of SARS-CoV-1 and ACE2 in pulmonary epithelial cells. Importantly both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 bind to ACE2 (Lu et al. 2020; Rothan and Byrareddy 2020; van Doremalen et al., 2020), and thus a putative decrease of ACE2 expression in pulmonary endothelia in high-altitude inhabitant could represent a physiological protective for the severe and often lethal pulmonary edema.

Another factor is that people living at high altitude, especially those who are children of high altitude dwellers have adapted their lungs and pulmonary circulation and have a much higher capacity than se level resident. Their adaptations also make them less susceptible to lung edema.

Another consequence of increased HIF-1 at altitude is an increase in AMP kinase which can fight inflammation. Interesting news indeed!
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jasons2k
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Check out the “curve” in Sweden these days since the news won’t report on it ;)
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DoctorMu
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Equivalent of 200K US dead and 5.1% economic contraction. Only 5% have tested positive. Not that good. It would be worse, but most Swedes live alone. Housing is through the roof.

Norway has the equivalent of 10K dead, same economic impact, and schools, shops are completely reopened now in Norway.
unome
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I hope everyone has a safe Thanksgiving - I feel the need to tell you 1 of my cousins died from COVID-19 pneumonia on the 9th & today my youngest brother was just admitted to the hospital with the same, oxygen level in the 80s at the time, but better, so far. His entire family has either tested positive or has symptoms & for whatever reason (it escapes me) they have not all tested... tests are available.

The kind & overworked ICU staff held a phone to my cousin's ear so his loved ones could tell them they loved him one last time and say goodbye. He may not have heard them by then.

They are both in northern states, where temps are colder, people are staying inside more often now, homes are better insulated so less fresh air flow from the outside. But, it can happen anywhere.

Please be safe, please wear a (good) mask, please know that sharing a dinner (or whatever) isn't worth your loved one's life - it affects so many more people than just yourself...

We can get through this, but we need to be smart - stay safe y'all - unome
BlueJay
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I am sorry to hear this news, unome. Wishing strength for your family.
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Katdaddy
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I am so very sorry for your loss unome. Also wishing strength for your family doing this very rough time.
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DoctorMu
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Really sorry to hear that, unome.

Because of new COVID travel restrictions, our son won't be able to return home from Minnesota. Unfortunately, it's the wise move.

Everyone stay safe and healthy!
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Ptarmigan
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Worldometers-COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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jasons2k
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Another article about the weather’s influence on the virus:

https://www.studyfinds.org/weather-impa ... 19-spread/
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:08 pm Another article about the weather’s influence on the virus:

https://www.studyfinds.org/weather-impa ... 19-spread/
That paper focuses on evaporation rate and wind, particularly when one is outside. During the winter the dew point is reduced inside buildings. Therefore crowding, assemblies, gatherings that increase during the winter would contribute more.

Higher evaporation in warmer temps seems reasonable given a lipid bilayer and withheld moisture in droplets have a high surface area to volume ratio - meaning they evaporate and dessicate easily. Of course, the humidity in and DP in east Texas in the summer is ridiculous! As long as social distancing is adhered to outside and masks are worn, there should be low risk of catching COVID-19.

Even in the winter, risks are still low outside, although not quite as low. People tend to gather more indoors in the winter - that's where the real danger is.
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