April 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Belmer
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As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 2 outlook. Sure enough, the 'Slight' risk has been expanded further south and east now including Conroe up towards Huntsville. Far northwestern Harris has also been included along with Katy and points west.


SPC Day 2  Update: Thursday PM
SPC Day 2 Update: Thursday PM
SPC Day 2: TX Region
SPC Day 2: TX Region
Blake
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Meh. So my area is at border or marginal and thunder. Hopefully get some meaningful rain out of this. My grass near the street is already dead and it's not even that hot yet.
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Katdaddy
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I know this is Spring and the 2020 Hurricane Season is 2 month’s away but Dr. Philip Klotzbach with the Colorado State University released the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook this morning. An above average season is expected due to less wind shear and warmer than normal Atlantic waters. Now back to Spring weather with an extended period of messy weather on the way through next Wednesday.
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Cpv17
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I will admit, the short range mesoscale models don’t look all that good for rain the next couple days.
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:39 am I will admit, the short range mesoscale models don’t look all that good for rain the next couple days.
Color me surprised.
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The HRRR model has a bunch of rain for the far western areas of the viewing area, but after that the rain just completely fizzles out and turns into sprinkles once it gets into the eastern half of Colorado county. Looks like areas out towards Yoakum and Hallettsville could get some good rains, but east of there not so much.
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:51 pm The HRRR model has a bunch of rain for the far western areas of the viewing area, but after that the rain just completely fizzles out and turns into sprinkles once it gets into the eastern half of Colorado county. Looks like areas out towards Yoakum and Hallettsville could get some good rains, but east of there not so much.
Yeah, I’m in Western Colorado County at the ranch. We are at 100% chances between 5-7 pm tonight
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srainhoutx
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Weather update from Jeff:

Breaks in the overcast in the last few hours are allowing increases in surface temperatures over SC and SE TX ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary that extends from the ARKLATX to NW of Del Rio. A well defined jet stream disturbance over NE MX is starting to eject into SW TX where numerous severe thunderstorms have developed. Air mass eastward is becoming increasingly unstable and PWS indicate moisture levels of 1.3-1.6 inches. Convection allowing models show a rapid and widespread development of trong to severe thunderstorms over SC TX into the western portions of SE TX this afternoon and evening with potential hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. It is possible that some of the storms could produce rainfall rates of 2.0-2.5 inches per hour. Isolated flash flooding will be possible with these rainfall rates.

Additionally, the slow frontal movement suggests that a slowing line or a period of cell training will be possible this evening over portions of the area…mainly west of I-45.
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And just like that, rain chances in League City for today and tomorrow have dropped off a cliff.....along with projected amounts. Sonofab^%#%!!!!
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:32 pm And just like that, rain chances in League City for today and tomorrow have dropped off a cliff.....along with projected amounts. Sonofab^%#%!!!!
The only thing I can think of is the atmosphere must be capped over SETX. Not allowing any upward motion. Idk?
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:32 pm And just like that, rain chances in League City for today and tomorrow have dropped off a cliff.....along with projected amounts. Sonofab^%#%!!!!
The only thing I can think of is the atmosphere must be capped over SETX. Not allowing any upward motion. Idk?

I’m about to bust a cap in that cap’s ###
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And just like clockwork, we had 70% for tomorrow and now 40% for tomorrow...soo tired of this routine. We actually had some decent QPF coverage for Beaumont at one time.
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I've been watering my lawn all day.
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:23 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:32 pm And just like that, rain chances in League City for today and tomorrow have dropped off a cliff.....along with projected amounts. Sonofab^%#%!!!!
The only thing I can think of is the atmosphere must be capped over SETX. Not allowing any upward motion. Idk?

I’m about to bust a cap in that cap’s ###
It’s just very strange to see a disturbance get together so well in the southern part of the Hill Country and then just fizzle out in the evening hours once it gets to SETX. Not sure I’ve seen that before.
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:57 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:23 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm

The only thing I can think of is the atmosphere must be capped over SETX. Not allowing any upward motion. Idk?

I’m about to bust a cap in that cap’s ###
It’s just very strange to see a disturbance get together so well in the southern part of the Hill Country and then just fizzle out in the evening hours once it gets to SETX. Not sure I’ve seen that before.
Are we (amateurs and promets, alike) just missing something atmospherically, at the mesoscale perhaps, that has thrown things off? The dynamics seem to be there, but it seems like there is some unspoken cap in place that just throws a kink in the whole thing. A common theme as everyone has pointed out at one time or another that rain chances even 3 days out are favorable, only to see them drop to nil or the bear minimum 20%.
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tireman4
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Interesting ..forecast
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I still have hope being in far northwest Cypress but every model busted big time on this one so far. Timing is way off, today was supposed to be storms all afternoon into the evening and here we are with a radar that’s about 10 hours behind the models. Hopefully it comes together and pushes into the areas with some decent rains.
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Belmer
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JDsGN wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:10 pm I still have hope being in far northwest Cypress but every model busted big time on this one so far. Timing is way off, today was supposed to be storms all afternoon into the evening and here we are with a radar that’s about 10 hours behind the models. Hopefully it comes together and pushes into the areas with some decent rains.
Hi JDsGN, may I ask what models you were looking at that had storms coming in 10 hours earlier than now? HRRR, NAM, WRF and RGEM all had in their operational runs yesterday (00z-18z) along with the runs today didn't have thunderstorms moving into the SE TX region until after 00z (7:00pm). NWS HGX mentioned this as well in previous forecast. Most of today was supposed to be fairly cloudy with isolated showers possible.

As far as current time: the little bit of peaks of sunshine through parts of the area today helped rise temperatures into the low 80s (82F out in Katy) to provide a bit more instability over our area. Pretty solid width of rain/thunderstorms out west and heading our way. Severe threat looks relatively low with the loss of daytime heating, but areas west of I-45 will likely get the most out of this as it slowly begins to lose its punch.
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Belmer wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:35 pm
JDsGN wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:10 pm I still have hope being in far northwest Cypress but every model busted big time on this one so far. Timing is way off, today was supposed to be storms all afternoon into the evening and here we are with a radar that’s about 10 hours behind the models. Hopefully it comes together and pushes into the areas with some decent rains.
Hi JDsGN, may I ask what models you were looking at that had storms coming in 10 hours earlier than now? HRRR, NAM, WRF and RGEM all had in their operational runs yesterday (00z-18z) along with the runs today didn't have thunderstorms moving into the SE TX region until after 00z (7:00pm). NWS HGX mentioned this as well in previous forecast. Most of today was supposed to be fairly cloudy with isolated showers possible.

As far as current time: the little bit of peaks of sunshine through parts of the area today helped rise temperatures into the low 80s (82F out in Katy) to provide a bit more instability over our area. Pretty solid width of rain/thunderstorms out west and heading our way. Severe threat looks relatively low with the loss of daytime heating, but areas west of I-45 will likely get the most out of this as it slowly begins to lose its punch.
Watched Fox 26 and KPRC last night , both had multiple models showing storms to the southwest this morning and storms for us early afternoon and pushing past northwest Harris county by 7. The southwest storms started this afternoon instead. One was even earlier and one was a bit later. Can’t tell you which was which but rain was predicted to start early afternoon on both forecast. At least it’s raining a bit at my place now.
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Just mist here. All the heavier stuff (once again) headed north of us or just vanishing on radar. This pattern blows.
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