August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Ike was a major hurricane I don’t care what anybody says
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Forecast model of Invest 92L.

Image

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has Invest 92L/Isaias as a hurricane over Bahamas this Saturday. Subject to change.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps ... ragada.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

GFS Ensemble for Invest 92L.

Image

Looks to be an East Coast hurricane at this time. Always subject to change.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

92L will likely we a slow developer and probably will not slow down it's rapid Westerly motion until mid/late this week as it begins its approach to the Eastern Caribbean. Careful with the various computer schemes including the ensembles beyond 3 to 5 days. I suspect they will not an idea what might happen until reconnaissance missions from the AF and possibly a G-IV high altitude mission give additional data to those model solutions.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I'm liking the gfs and I never like the gfs
I'm really hoping for a recurve and ots
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:52 pm Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.
I am not letting my guards down yet.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The latest Euro takes this as far west as the central Gulf before turning north. Models shifting further south and west it seems.
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Let’s see how strong that trough is
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

quite the storn - no chance of getting back to sleep now though, might as well put the coffee on !

https://map.blitzortung.org/#7.14/29.712/-95.461
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Image
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 64 guests