September 2020:

[tireman4]

The start of the Cape Verde Season is approaching

[srainhoutx]

Keep a keen eye on Typhoon Maysak in the Western Pacific. It may become a Super Typhoon threatening S Korea/Japan and buckle the Northern Pacific Jet Stream. It may have significant impact on the sensible weather across North America. Typically we see an unusually stout Ridge/Trough/Ridge pattern established in this sort of scenario. The models also tend to be chaotic during the evolution of such a significant pattern change. Tropics look active and a lot of territory may see their first legitimate Fall Cold Front. Fingers crossed for the cold Front solution for Texas!

[DoctorMu]

I just don't want to happen what has happened the last 2 years....get a good cold front in November and then that's all we get the rest of winter

We could use a few blue northers this winter.

[Cpv17]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

Good. Bring on cool weather

[Stormlover2020]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

It’s 2020

[DoctorMu]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

It’s 2020

The front would stall in the Gulf and create its own tropical system.

[Texaspirate11]

Sorry Steve hit the wrong button again lol
I'm a bit blurry eyed

[Pas_Bon]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

It’s 2020

The front would stall in the Gulf and create its own tropical system.

lol. Yep

[redneckweather]

If a front does come through, that will shut the door down on hurricane season in Texas.

Good. Bring on cool weather

Yep, come on with it.

Even though the tropics will be getting active, our days are numbered along the middle and upper Texas coast from a climatology standpoint.

[Stormlover2020]

Ike and Rita says different

[Stormlover2020]

Number of recorded storms affecting Texas
Month Number of storms
June
8
July
7
August
19
September
25
October
13
November
2

[srainhoutx]

Invest 99L has been designated for a vigorous tropical disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[Cpv17]

Number of recorded storms affecting Texas
Month Number of storms
June
8
July
7
August
19
September
25
October
13
November
2

Climatology pretty much shuts the door down on the western Gulf around the middle of September.

[Cpv17]

Invest 99L has been designated for a vigorous tropical disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

It appears that 99L will just crash into CA.

[Stormlover2020]

Like I said ike and rita says different.

[srainhoutx]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion on
the system over the eastern Caribbean Sea in the first paragraph.

UPDATED: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated
that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the
wave. Additional development of this disturbance is expected over
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at about
15 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system is producing limited shower activity, and any further
development is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly
westward over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern
coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward
or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast
of the U.S. and then away from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa
in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system will
be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[TXWeatherMan]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

[srainhoutx]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

If I were in Jamaica, The Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula, I would be paying very close attention. As for the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf? Monitoring for now, but never say no chance with a possible tropical system anywhere near the NW Caribbean...