September 2020:

[Stormlover2020]

Ike and Rita says different

[Stormlover2020]

Number of recorded storms affecting Texas
Month Number of storms
June
8
July
7
August
19
September
25
October
13
November
2

[srainhoutx]

Invest 99L has been designated for a vigorous tropical disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[Cpv17]

Number of recorded storms affecting Texas
Month Number of storms
June
8
July
7
August
19
September
25
October
13
November
2

Climatology pretty much shuts the door down on the western Gulf around the middle of September.

[Cpv17]

Invest 99L has been designated for a vigorous tropical disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

It appears that 99L will just crash into CA.

[Stormlover2020]

Like I said ike and rita says different.

[srainhoutx]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion on
the system over the eastern Caribbean Sea in the first paragraph.

UPDATED: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated
that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the
wave. Additional development of this disturbance is expected over
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at about
15 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system is producing limited shower activity, and any further
development is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly
westward over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern
coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward
or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast
of the U.S. and then away from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa
in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system will
be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[TXWeatherMan]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

[srainhoutx]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

If I were in Jamaica, The Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula, I would be paying very close attention. As for the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf? Monitoring for now, but never say no chance with a possible tropical system anywhere near the NW Caribbean...

[Cpv17]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

I’m hearing that maybe it gets into the BOC and goes into Mexico.

[Ptarmigan]

Number of recorded storms affecting Texas
Month Number of storms
June
8
July
7
August
19
September
25
October
13
November
2

Texas Hurricane History
https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf

The November 1839 Hurricane was probably a small hurricane, like Jerry in 1989.

It is possible tropical systems have hit Texas in April and May.

[Ptarmigan]

99L continues to organize this afternoon in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

No chance this gets in the gulf right?

I’m hearing that maybe it gets into the BOC and goes into Mexico.

Too early to say at this point.

[jasons2k]

This was from this afternoon's AFD from the Houston-Galveston NWS Office:

In regards to the tropics: a tropical wave near the Windwards
should continue moving west the next several days. NHC gives this
system a good chance of developing into a depression in the next
day or two. Majority of the medium range solutions take the
"center" toward Central America and Mexico, though a wave axis
along its northern periphery may emerge off the Yucatan and into
the Bay of Campeche late in the week...and toward the Mexico`s
east coast this weekend. Upper ridging situated across the
northern Gulf Coast states should theoretically keep things to our
south, and of note, few models show much if any organization. That
said...we are heading toward peak season (and it is 2020 after all)
so it`s always worth keeping an eye on things regardless.

[redneckweather]

Like I said ike and rita says different.

Yea, both hit the 2nd and 3rd week in September. Our days are numbered as the threats for us getting hit by a big storm dwindle significantly after mid Septmeber.

[Texaspirate11]

HGX NWS:
Some of the
extended guidance is showing signs of a September cold front for
the middle of next week.
45

[Stormlover2020]

I don’t believe it just yet

[AtascocitaWX]

HGX NWS:
Some of the
extended guidance is showing signs of a September cold front for
the middle of next week.
45

Oh Wow..... That would be nice.

[javakah]

HGX NWS:
Hey Charlie Brown, why don't you kick this football while I hold it?

[jasons2k]

The run the last two mornings has been oppressive. I made it for about 2.5 miles and had to quit. Just too hot. I guess this is payback for that string of nice mornings about a week+ ago. At least we got that rain the other day (1.86" here). Maybe some more folks will get lucky today.

I'm ready for that first cold front.