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Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:42 am
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 260910
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Night]...

With the return of onshore winds and a slight increase in low-level
moisture to SE TX, we`ll start the day with patchy fog across parts
(mainly northern) of the region this morning. These lower decks are
expected to mix out by mid/late morning. We could see another round
of patchy fog tonight as conditions remain similar. Warming temper-
atures are on tap for the weekend as weak high pressure lingers out
east and the S/SE winds persist. Highs are progged to be in the mid
to upper 80s today...upper 80s to around 90 for tomorrow.

Rain chances will remain limited to nil through tomorrow afternoon,
but cannot rule out some isolated WAA-type SHRA late Sun night into
early Mon with the arrival of a speed max and a tightening gradient
across the coastal counties/near waters. All this appears to be the
set-up out ahead of the strong cold front that is still forecast to
move through SE TX on Mon. POPs will be highest during the day Mon,
mainly just ahead of and along the front itself. Currently estimat-
ing rainfall totals averaging around 1/2 inch or less as this front
should be moving steadily to the coast. Rain chances should be end-
ing from the north to south through the afternoon as the line moves
further offshore. Much cooler/drier weather expected across the CWA
in the wake of the front. Yay fall! 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

With an upper ridge situated to our west and a trof to our east, a
dry nwly flow aloft should prevail through the week. Surface high
pressure behind Monday`s front will eventually move off to the east
late Wed, but atmos won`t have much time to modify before another
reinforcing (moisture starved) frontal boundary moves in late Thurs
into Fri. Overall, it looks like a dry period accompanied by some
really comfortable temps. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds should prevail through the weekend, perhaps with
speeds approaching caution levels for a time Sunday evening. Expect
a strong cold front to push off the coast Monday afternoon with
moderate to strong offshore winds in its wake. Small craft
advisories will be required, and winds may gust to near gale force
at times Monday night considering the tightening gradient and the
cool airmass moving over 78-83F waters. Winds/seas gradually subside
later Tue into midweek as high pressure builds into the area. Light
onshore winds may briefly resume Thurs, but am expecting a
reinforcing front moving into the waters Thurs night into Fri. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Areas of patchy fog will be possible this morning (mainly for inland
northern locations) given the light winds/clear skies/wet ground and
slowly increasing low-level moisture. These lower VIS/CIGS are prog-
ged to mix out by mid morning with VFR conditions prevailing through
this afternoon. Another round of patchy fog/low clouds will be poss-
ible tonight/early Sun as the pattern remains fairly similar. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 69 89 70 77 / 0 10 10 20 40
Houston (IAH) 87 71 89 75 84 / 0 10 10 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 87 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:43 am
by snowman65
Glad to see there are no storms in the GOM...but....

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:40 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 262002
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Sunday Afternoon]...

A rather benign weather pattern will continue across SE Texas
through the short term period. For the rest of the day today, expect
partly to variably cloudy skies with southerly winds at 5 to 10 MPH.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Skies are
expected to clear out in the evening, however, cloudiness is
expected to return during the overnight and early Sunday morning
hours. Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop once again
overnight into early Sunday morning across portions of SE Texas.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s along areas north
of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s along areas south of I-10. Winds
will be increasing Sunday morning, which could help lift and scatter
out the fog quicker than today, or may even not allow the fog to
develop at all for a few locations. If fog does develop tonight,
expect it to lift and clear out by mid morning. With a more
pronounced southerly wind flow, we may have isolated showers moving
across the local waters from the Gulf Sunday morning and may reach
the coastal locations from time to time. However, confidence of this
occurring is low and thus kept PoPs at 10% for the waters and
coastal locations. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will increase
into the upper 80s and low 90s. An increase in low level moisture
will also increase dewpoints into the low 70s Sunday afternoon. 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Late Sunday night through early Monday morning, look for increasing
chances of northern county showers and possible thunderstorms, probably
beginning shortly before sunrise as a strong cold front enters the area
from the north. This front will sweep through Southeast Texas and could
very well be off the coast by around or shortly after noon. With the
fast movement of the front, still anticipating rainfall amounts to average
1/2 inch or less. With winds shifting to the north behind the front
(becoming breezy inland and breezy/windy at the coast), look for a
decreasing trend in temperatures during the afternoon. Cool nights
and mild days (lows mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the
beaches and highs in the 70s/80s) along with low humidities and no
rain can be expected for the remainder of the week as a western U.S.
ridge and an eastern U.S. trof become established in the mid/upper
levels. This pattern will allow for a Thursday-Friday reinforcing
(but much weaker) cold front to move through the area. Currently, this
pattern looks to hold into the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Some gradual warming can be expected as winds come back around
to the south and southeast, but moisture levels look to be too low
for any rain development. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will continue through
Sunday night. A strong cold front will move into and through the
coastal waters late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Winds
will shift to the north behind the front and strengthen, and small
craft advisories will be needed for the development of the strong
winds and rough bay waters/seas. Wind gusts could possibly increase
to near gale force Monday night. Decreasing winds and seas can be
expected late Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds into
the area and the gradient weakens. A reinforcing and much weaker
front is still anticipated to move into the waters Thursday or
Friday. The offshore flow behind this front will quickly swing
back around to onshore over the weekend.
42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites except CXO, which is
expected to lift within the next hour or so. S winds today will
be at 5 to 10 KTS decreasing to 5 KTS or less tonight. MVFR to
IFR conditions are expected to return overnight through early
Sunday morning along with areas of patchy fog developing across
portions of SE Texas. Winds will increase Sunday morning to around
10 KTS. A few isolated showers could move across the Gulf waters
and into some coastal sections early Sunday morning, however,
confidence at this time is low, and thus kept any mention of SHRA
out of this TAF package. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 89 67 77 54 / 0 0 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 71 90 73 82 59 / 0 0 0 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 86 78 86 66 / 10 10 0 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 pm
by tropiKal
Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:37 pm
by davidiowx
tropiKal wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 pm Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.
No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:40 pm
by DoctorMu
snowman65 wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:43 am Glad to see there are no storms in the GOM...but....
2020, so yeah. :lol:

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:41 pm
by DoctorMu
davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:37 pm
tropiKal wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 pm Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.
No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..
DFTT

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:44 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 262331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Main issue this package will be the same issue we have been
dealing with the past few nights, which is patchy fog and MVFR
CIGS developing by midnight and lasting through the early morning.
The one difference tonight is that the southerly winds may stay
elevated overnight tonight. These higher winds could limit the
development of the fog, but guidance continues to show patchy fog
developing along and north of I-45. If any fog does develop
overnight, it will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The southerly
flow will be strengthening tomorrow with sustained winds of 10 to
15 mph through the afternoon with isolated wind gusts up to 20
mph. Don`t mention any gusts yet in the TAFs because of the
isolated nature of it, but it may get added in in later packages.
No showers or thunderstorms are expecting through the period.

Fowler

&&

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:09 am
by tropiKal
davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:37 pm No thanks. I’ll take cold and some winter precip. By the way, La Niña doesn’t ensure warm and dry weather every time. The last time was 17-18 winter and it snowed at my house..
The 17-18 season definitely wasn't a proper one, it still had substantial El Nino influences (i.e. SOI crashes with active sJet).

In any rate, cold and snow are detrimental to landscapes, sorry to say. Warm and dry in winter is objectively superior.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:42 am
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 270913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...

Some patchy fog possible across northern portions of the CWFA this
morning, but given the slightly increased onshore winds just above
the surface, it`ll likely be more low clouds. These southerly flow
could also produce some very isolated showers along the coast this
morning. Otherwise, all of this is expected to mix out by mid/late
morning with another warm afternoon on tap. Highs should be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances will begin to creep up over our northern counties late
tonight as the cold front begins its push into SE TX. While some of
the latest guidance is indicating a slightly faster motion, not too
confident with this at this time. Will keep with the previous fore-
casts with this line moving into the area overnight and likely into
our marine waters late tomorrow/Mon afternoon. The bulk of the POPs
will be just ahead of/along the front itself. Still not expecting a
lot in terms of rainfall as this line will be moving steadily. Much
cooler/drier weather on tap in the wake of the front...with lows in
the 50s Mon night! 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move off to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore flow won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late Thur
night and Fri. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Going to hoist the caution flags for a brief time period early this
morning as obs indicate 15-20kt winds offshore. These should
diminish a touch heading into the afternoon, but will probably creep
back up again for a while this evening and tonight. Other than
speeding up the frontal passage into the mid morning into early
afternoon hours on Monday, the fcst remains mostly unchanged. Small
craft advisories will be required in the wake of the front and gusts
to around gale force still look to be in play later in the day and
Monday night. Winds/seas gradually subside later Tue into midweek as
high pressure builds into the area. Light onshore winds may briefly
resume Thurs, but am expecting a weaker reinforcing front to
backdoor into the waters late Thurs night into Fri causing winds.
to back around to the northeast. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Per the slightly elevated onshore winds at/just above the surface...
will be expecting more lower CIGS vs VIS for the rest of the morning.
Otherwise, VFR for this afternoon. Will be introducing the cold front
(wind shift) into the TAFs with this package...starting at CLL around
08-10Z and IAH from 12-14Z (but subject to to some last minute tweaks
before issuance). Gusty north winds progged in the wake of this front
during the day, decreasing a bit by evening (except along the coast).
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 65 76 55 79 / 10 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 74 82 60 80 / 10 10 50 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 85 66 80 / 10 10 40 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 am
by Ptarmigan
tropiKal wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:18 pm Very wonderful rain this past week! Summer (Jun - Sept) was decent, not including the early July and late August dry breaks.

Hoping for a very warm and dry fall and winter. La Nina in place will thankfully ensure that.
Some big cold blasts have occurred in La Nina winters like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2018.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:07 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 271805
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
105 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected today into early tonight transitioning to
MVFR to possibly IFR overnight as a cold front approaches the
northern regions of the CWA. S winds at 10-15 KTS with higher
gusts on occasion today and tonight, turning N and increasing to
15-20 KTS with higher gusts Monday morning in the wake of the
front. So far, HiRes Precip guidance is not too keen on bringing
significant shower and thunderstorm activity, therefore, kept the
mention of VCSH for this TAF package from around 08Z-15Z for the
northern portions, 12-18Z for the central portions, and an hour or
two later for the coastal portions. It could be upgraded to VCTS
in the next TAF package however. Once the front moves through the
local area, expect strong and gusty N winds to continue with skies
gradually lifting and scattering out starting from the northern
portions southwards throughout the late morning and afternoon
hours. Winds will slowly subside Monday night. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...

Some patchy fog possible across northern portions of the CWFA this
morning, but given the slightly increased onshore winds just above
the surface, it`ll likely be more low clouds. These southerly flow
could also produce some very isolated showers along the coast this
morning. Otherwise, all of this is expected to mix out by mid/late
morning with another warm afternoon on tap. Highs should be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances will begin to creep up over our northern counties late
tonight as the cold front begins its push into SE TX. While some of
the latest guidance is indicating a slightly faster motion, not too
confident with this at this time. Will keep with the previous fore-
casts with this line moving into the area overnight and likely into
our marine waters late tomorrow/Mon afternoon. The bulk of the POPs
will be just ahead of/along the front itself. Still not expecting a
lot in terms of rainfall as this line will be moving steadily. Much
cooler/drier weather on tap in the wake of the front...with lows in
the 50s Mon night! 41

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move off to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore flow won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late Thur
night and Fri. 47

MARINE...
Going to hoist the caution flags for a brief time period early this
morning as obs indicate 15-20kt winds offshore. These should
diminish a touch heading into the afternoon, but will probably creep
back up again for a while this evening and tonight. Other than
speeding up the frontal passage into the mid morning into early
afternoon hours on Monday, the fcst remains mostly unchanged. Small
craft advisories will be required in the wake of the front and gusts
to around gale force still look to be in play later in the day and
Monday night. Winds/seas gradually subside later Tue into midweek as
high pressure builds into the area. Light onshore winds may briefly
resume Thurs, but am expecting a weaker reinforcing front to
backdoor into the waters late Thurs night into Fri causing winds.
to back around to the northeast. 47

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Per the slightly elevated onshore winds at/just above the surface...
will be expecting more lower CIGS vs VIS for the rest of the morning.
Otherwise, VFR for this afternoon. Will be introducing the cold front
(wind shift) into the TAFs with this package...starting at CLL around
08-10Z and IAH from 12-14Z (but subject to to some last minute tweaks
before issuance). Gusty north winds progged in the wake of this front
during the day, decreasing a bit by evening (except along the coast).
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 76 55 79 54 / 30 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 82 60 80 56 / 10 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 85 66 80 66 / 10 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:28 pm
by DoctorMu
Given the arrival of the cold front into the northern counties in the wee hours of the morning the air would be expected to be less unstable. Modest chance of rain (downgraded to only 30%) and amount of rainfall in the Brazos Valley. 50% chance of rain Monday am in Houston.

Clearing skies Monday afternoon and serious northerly advection bringing much drier (DP in 40s possible in northern counties) and cooler temps Monday and Tuesday nights. Mid 50s in CLL, Upper 50s in NW Harris Co, Conroe. NW aloft flow for the week. A little reinforcement of coolish air mid to late-week. Highs in the upper 70s and 80s through the week.

The front should plow deep into the Gulf and essentially end Tropical Season for us, although there are exceptions...and it is 2020.

First extended Chamber of Commerce weather since April. Enjoy!



Edited - did not see tireman's post when I began putting this post together - just hitting the NOAA highlights.

FXUS64 KHGX 271805
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
105 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.
SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...

... Much cooler/drier weather on tap in the wake of the front...with lows in
the 50s Mon night! 41


LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

Dry nw flow aloft should maintain pleasant wx across the area.
Surface high pressure will move off to the east around Thursday, but
weak onshore flow won`t time to modify the airmass before another,
albeit weaker, frontal boundary backdoors into the area late Thur
night and Fri.
47



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 76 55 79 54 / 30 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 82 60 80 56 / 10 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 85 66 80 66 / 10 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Image

Image

Image

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:32 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 272005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
305 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Monday Afternoon]...

Fair but breezy weather conditions will continue today through early
tonight. Partly cloudy skies and winds of 10-15 MPH are expected to
prevail this afternoon with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s
to low 90s. Rain chances will increase tonight into Monday morning
across SE Texas as a cold front moves through the local area.
Locally, we will see showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms
ahead and along the boundary beginning along the northern areas
closer to midnight CDT, spreading into the central areas overnight
and reaching the southern areas early Monday morning. In the wake of
the front, rain chances will dissipate and winds will turn northerly
and increase to around 15 KTS with gusts of around 25 KTS. By Monday
late morning into afternoon, drier air will filter into the region
allowing skies to lift and scatter out starting along the northern
region spreading southward into the rest of the CWA Monday
afternoon/evening. No significant threat is expected with this
frontal passage, but the drier and cooler air mass will decrease
overall temperatures on Monday. High temperatures look to only reach
the mid to upper 70s across areas north of I-10 and the low 80s
across areas south of I-10. Very nice for September in SE Texas! 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Sunday]...

The main weather feature in the long term period will be the cooler
overnight low temperatures and the lower daytime humidities. On Tuesday,
Wednesday and Thursday lows will be mostly in the 50s inland and in
the 60s at the coast with Wednesday probably being the coolest as surface
high pressure settles into the area. Tuesday`s highs looks to stay
in the upper 70s to around 80, and then a warmup begins with readings
probably reaching the mid to upper 80s on Thursday. The next cold front
(much weaker and much less breezy/windy than Monday`s front) will work
its way through the area Thursday night through Friday morning. High
pressure behind this front will be centered well to our north as it
moves eastward, and this will bring area winds back around to the
southeast and south for the weekend. Friday`s low temperatures should
be a little cooler than Thursday morning`s readings, and then the area
can expect a gradual rising trend (both temperatures and humidities)
over the weekend.

Do not think anyone would be upset if record low temperatures were reached
during this cooldown, but sorry to say that`s not gonna happen.

42

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore winds will prevail tonight ahead of a strong cold front that
will move into the coastal waters on Monday morning. In the wake of
the front, strong northerly winds, with gusts possibly close to gale
force, can be expected later in the day and on into Monday night as
cooler air temperatures move across the warmer water temperatures.
Winds and seas should begin subsiding late Tuesday into midweek as
high pressure settles into the area. A reinforcing but much weaker
cold front is forecast to move into the waters late Thursday night
or Friday morning. Onshore flow returns to the area over the weekend
as surface high pressure behind the second front quickly moves off
to the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected today into early tonight transitioning to
MVFR to possibly IFR overnight as a cold front approaches the
northern regions of the CWA. S winds at 10-15 KTS with higher
gusts on occasion today and tonight, turning N and increasing to
15-20 KTS with higher gusts Monday morning in the wake of the
front. So far, HiRes Precip guidance is not too keen on bringing
significant shower and thunderstorm activity, therefore, kept the
mention of VCSH for this TAF package from around 08Z-15Z for the
northern portions, 12-18Z for the central portions, and an hour or
two later for the coastal portions. It could be upgraded to VCTS
in the next TAF package however. Once the front moves through the
local area, expect strong and gusty N winds to continue with skies
gradually lifting and scattering out starting from the northern
portions southwards throughout the late morning and afternoon
hours. Winds will slowly subside Monday night. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 76 52 79 52 / 40 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 79 59 80 57 / 20 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 82 66 80 66 / 10 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:44 pm
by tropiKal
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 amSome big cold blasts have occurred in La Nina winters like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2018.
Again, the cold and precip only happen in the instances of La Ninas with El Nino permeations (i.e. SOI crashes). And even then, many of those years had great stretches of warm weather. So you can bet that with a proper La Nina, Houston will be warm and toasty with wall-to-wall sunshine.

Fortunately, the jet stream influence over Houston has been weakening since the 1990s - hence the general warmer, drier trends observed through the fall-spring period (especially obvious using HOU airport). And as it continues to weaken, Houston will start having more and more of a pure tropical perfection in its weather patterns!

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 pm
by TXWeatherMan
tropiKal wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:44 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 amSome big cold blasts have occurred in La Nina winters like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2018.
Again, the cold and precip only happen in the instances of La Ninas with El Nino permeations (i.e. SOI crashes). And even then, many of those years had great stretches of warm weather. So you can bet that with a proper La Nina, Houston will be warm and toasty with wall-to-wall sunshine.

Fortunately, the jet stream influence over Houston has been weakening since the 1990s - hence the general warmer, drier trends observed through the fall-spring period (especially obvious using HOU airport). And as it continues to weaken, Houston will start having more and more of a pure tropical perfection in its weather patterns!
I really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:56 pm
by Ptarmigan
TXWeatherMan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:33 pm
tropiKal wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:44 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:16 amSome big cold blasts have occurred in La Nina winters like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2011, and 2018.
Again, the cold and precip only happen in the instances of La Ninas with El Nino permeations (i.e. SOI crashes). And even then, many of those years had great stretches of warm weather. So you can bet that with a proper La Nina, Houston will be warm and toasty with wall-to-wall sunshine.

Fortunately, the jet stream influence over Houston has been weakening since the 1990s - hence the general warmer, drier trends observed through the fall-spring period (especially obvious using HOU airport). And as it continues to weaken, Houston will start having more and more of a pure tropical perfection in its weather patterns!
I really hope we don’t have a warm winter. You have that 8 months out of the year so I’m sure you can handle 3-4 months of “cold” weather.
Winter is suppose to be cold. 8-)

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:33 pm
by Cromagnum
Anyone that complains about cold this year needs a mallet upside the head. Im hoping for a proper fall season for once and winter that doesnt leave until Astrological spring or later. Tired of getting early summers that never leave.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:07 pm
by DoctorMu
Cromagnum wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:33 pm Anyone that complains about cold this year needs a mallet upside the head. Im hoping for a proper fall season for once and winter that doesnt leave until Astrological spring or later. Tired of getting early summers that never leave.
We've had a lot of northerly flow aloft since Sept 9th up here in the NW territories (CLL). 94°F has been the hottest day since then and over half the days the dewpoint has been under 70°F.

We're due after the last 2-3 year with stubbornly high DPs into November, even December. A brief snpp, then warmer than average January and February. Fingers crossed.

Looks like northerly upper air flow for the next 7-10 days.

Re: September 2020:

Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:24 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 272359
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions with light to moderate southerly flow will continue
through midnight tonight, but an approaching cold front will bring
a northerly wind shift, MVFR CIGs of around 1500-2000ft, and a
line of showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight and
into the first part of tomorrow. Looks like this line will be
through CLL around 7-8z, through IAH around 11-12z, then through
GLS and off the coast by 14-16z. As the front passes, it will
bring a line of precipitation with it. Have just kept the VCSH
wording, but an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Gusty
northerly winds will continue through the day behind the front
with gusts up to 20 to 30mph with the strongest gusts near the
shore. Expect clearing skies through the day as well. Winds relax
a bit overnight tomorrow night, but may still be sustained around
10 to 15 mph.

Important information for our users, the NWS will be completing
some maintenance on our internal network between 1am and 4am CDT.
This will result in a data outage of many of our products and many
products will not be transmitted to external users. Because of
this, all of our TAF sites will include "AMD NOT SKED 2806/2809"
in the 6z package. Unfortunately, this will be when the cold front
will be moving through CLL and UTS, so please be advised that
amendments may not be issued if conditions become unrepresentative.

Fowler