October 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:38 am
djmike wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:44 am Patiently waiting in Beaumont for this front. Still sitting at a balmy 74 this morning while Houston is 54. Talk about sloooow mover. (Front passed, but absolutely no cool air yet...)
Outer band skirting hear you - at least it's an outer band and not another eyewall!
Yeah it’s raining pretty good. Ill take this any day rather than another eye wall this year. Still sitting firmly at 73 in Beaumont while you guys are now enjoying 50 degrees! What a contrast, and so close. 44 tonight for Beaumont so I know its coming...tap tap tap...eventually.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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I am about to experience my 4th tropical remnants event of the season here in the Smokey Mountains. Zeta looks to be the most vigorous of the 4 and all modes of weather worries that one would expect is forecast here in far Western NC tonight into tomorrow morning.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:04 pm I am about to experience my 4th tropical remnants event of the season here in the Smokey Mountains. Zeta looks to be the most vigorous of the 4 and all modes of weather worries that one would expect is forecast here in far Western NC tonight into tomorrow morning.
That's something you don't see every day! Tropical storm watch over the Smokys and southern Appalachians.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
837 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.UPDATE...

The cold front continues to push through the southeastern counties
of the CWA and through the coastal waters. Winds behind the boundary
are northwesterly at around 10-15 mph and offshore is sustained at
advisory levels with gusts near 30kts. A push of drier air behind
the front this afternoon will leave the evening at most locations
with clear skies for most of the CWA. As the front pushes eastward
in the outer waters, winds will shift northeasterly through the
morning with sustained winds around 25kts and some gusts in the
mid to high 30kt range. Wave heights will continue to build
through the morning and then quickly build this afternoon peaking
at 15ft in the outer waters. By the evening hours, winds will
decrease and seas begin to subside. Overnight, seas will be below
10ft in the outer waters and around 5ft in the inner coastal,
winds will decrease to around 20kts with some higher gusts.
Breezy conditions will stick around until the weekend and then
Saturday, stay around 10-15kts through the weekend. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions with low cigs, fog, drizzle and areas of rain will
persist into the early-mid afternoon hours. Precip should taper
off and skies begin clearing from west to east during in the
21-03z timeframe with gusty nw winds filling in. VFR overnight and
Thurs. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 41 60 44 71 / 70 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 45 63 46 69 / 70 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 52 63 52 66 / 70 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...35
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tropiKal wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:50 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:11 am Chalk this up to the first time in recent memory the models have UNDERESTIMATED the strength of a cool front. Yayyy!!!
Meh, it's mostly the thick cloud cover doing the work.
Not sure I’d say that. In Montgomery county my high tomorrow is 61 under sunny skies and dipping into the low 40’s tomorrow night.
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TXWeatherMan wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:01 pm
tropiKal wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:50 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:11 am Chalk this up to the first time in recent memory the models have UNDERESTIMATED the strength of a cool front. Yayyy!!!
Meh, it's mostly the thick cloud cover doing the work.
Not sure I’d say that. In Montgomery county my high tomorrow is 61 under sunny skies and dipping into the low 40’s tomorrow night.
Trop was referring to today with the thick cloud cover keeping the temps in the 40’s.
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jasons2k
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It was a chilly 43 degrees here this morning. The weather for this weekend looks perfect for late October/Early November. Enjoy everyone and have a safe Halloween! 👻 🎃🍬🦇🕸

Also don’t forget the full moon 🌕
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:52 am It was a chilly 43 degrees here this morning. The weather for this weekend looks perfect for late October/Early November. Enjoy everyone and have a safe Halloween! 👻 🎃🍬🦇🕸

Also don’t forget the full moon 🌕
The low last night was 39°F here. A crisp Fall day, sunny and breezy. 22 G 30 northerlies under blue skies.
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djmike
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Strange feeling yesterday with the 40s in Beaumont while to the east a few miles, a 110mph hurricane making landfall. Cant say Ive ever been in the middle of that scenario before. Thankfully NO received the front right after landfall. So everyone without power can at least enjoy the cool weather and not have to suffer. Hopefully all is ok there and no major damage. Not really seeing reports about it or of any damage. I think everyone is tired of reporting on hurricanes and so moved on to other big stories.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Halloween 2020 greetings to all! (Some how that sounds scary :? )

October 2020 finishes with stellar weather. On to November 2020...
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Katdaddy
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Happy Halloween with perfect SE TX weather!
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Katdaddy
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Yes we have history in the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. We now have TS Eta. The latest named tropical cyclone.
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DoctorMu
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020

.SHORT [Through Tomorrow night]...

The cool front is still making its way through the area bring in some
cooler and drier weather. Not going to see a lot of the effects
other than some cooler lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s and
highs tomorrow around 70. Humidity will decrease as will overall
getting to around 35-30% in the day making it quite pleasant with a
northeasterly breeze. Overall, quite weather as the high pressure
ridges over SETX and settling in. 35


.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday Night]...

Benign weather conditions continue throughout the week with a
persistent high pressure system dominating the Plains. Warm south to
southeast air advection will develop behind the surface high
pressure late Tuesday through Friday. This will result in
temperatures slightly warmer than previous days and a few degrees
warmer than average for this time of year. Highs will mainly range
from the mid 70s to near 80. A slight and gradual increase in
surface dewpoints/relative humidity is also expected into the
weekend.

Upper level pattern changes toward the end of the week as a longwave
trough develops over the Pacific Northwest and an upper-level low
moves over the Gulf. Global models show a potential for active
weather by Saturday and Sunday as low-level Gulf moisture increases
(PWATS around 1.5 inches) and the upper-low pressure system moves
through. There is still uncertainty given discrepancies between
models; thus, have only kept slight chances for rain next Saturday
and Sunday. 05

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

High pressure and a dry airmass allows VFR conditions to prevail.
Winds will shift from southerly to northerly tomorrow morning with a
reinforcing cool front passing through the TAF sites. A few fair
weather CU clouds will probably be see across the area around 020-
025 through the day today, but no MVFR CIGS are expected at this
time. 35&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong northeast winds persist this afternoon in the
wake of a departing surface cold front. Gusty winds from 20 to 30
knots are expected to continue this evening through Monday morning
before northerly flow mixes out and a surface high pressure moves
overhead. Building seas are also expected with values up to 7-8 feet
offhsore. Given that, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 12 PM CST Monday. Northeast winds will gradually veer to the
east-southeast by Tuesday as the aforementioned high moves east of
our region. Seas could increase offshore around 3 to 6 ft towards
the end of the week thanks to tighter pressure gradients and
increasing swells associated with Tropical Cyclone Eta over the
western Caribbean. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 42 70 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 48 70 46 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 69 60 72 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
tropiKal
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:39 amShallow cold air and overrun, wxtroll.
Right, so it wouldn't have been near as cold if the clouds weren't overrunning, given how shallow the cold air was. Nothing to be uptight about, man.
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