December 1989 Freeze

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tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:51 pm

TXWeatherMan wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:32 pm
Literally all of your posts are the same, what’s the point?
Nuh-uh, there are tons of differences. You just have to pick up on the nuances ;)

tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:00 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:09 am
Same troll that’s been around a while
It's a message approved by wxman57. ;)

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:45 am
You don’t understand averages versus anomalous events.

That was a 1 in 50 year type freeze. Not only will it happen again (probably in my life), taking the setup and strength of the cells, it’s not even a statistical anomaly for a setup like that.

This country shattered October records very far south a couple weeks ago.
Nah, I understand all that. You're certainly correct in principle, but it's all a matter of the trends. Looking back through records, annual winter minimums in the teens used to be fairly common across Houston (say, once every third year, or so). But since that 1989 event, such occurrences have virtually disappeared across the city - Hobby, for instance, only recorded such temps exactly once since that event.

And that's not factoring in the beast that is climate change, which is quickly making short work of the Arctic. With super upper level highs popping up, we'll be having our Death Ridges in winter instead of summer.

Of course, from time to time, there will still be cold snaps resulting from the key atmospheric setups that you mention. But the deep freezes of yesteryear will just be cool gentle breezes of the future.

tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:02 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:11 pm
The December 1989 freeze was on par with December 1983.

The closest would January 1886, February 1895, and February 1899.

I would not be surprised if we freezes like this in the future.
What makes you think that we will when the entire planet is heating up?

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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:55 am

DFTT

tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:30 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:55 am
DFTT
December-February in Texas Tech!

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srainhoutx
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:12 pm

tropiKal wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:09 am
Same troll that’s been around a while
It's a message approved by wxman57. ;)

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:45 am
You don’t understand averages versus anomalous events.

That was a 1 in 50 year type freeze. Not only will it happen again (probably in my life), taking the setup and strength of the cells, it’s not even a statistical anomaly for a setup like that.

This country shattered October records very far south a couple weeks ago.
Nah, I understand all that. You're certainly correct in principle, but it's all a matter of the trends. Looking back through records, annual winter minimums in the teens used to be fairly common across Houston (say, once every third year, or so). But since that 1989 event, such occurrences have virtually disappeared across the city - Hobby, for instance, only recorded such temps exactly once since that event.

And that's not factoring in the beast that is climate change, which is quickly making short work of the Arctic. With super upper level highs popping up, we'll be having our Death Ridges in winter instead of summer.

Of course, from time to time, there will still be cold snaps resulting from the key atmospheric setups that you mention. But the deep freezes of yesteryear will just be cool gentle breezes of the future.
I see you mentioned wxman57 agrees. I personally know Chris. He's a long time friend. You are not. Tread lightly TropiKal. You are skating on very thin ice around here... ;)
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tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:10 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:12 pm
I see you mentioned wxman57 agrees. I personally know Chris. He's a long time friend. You are not.
Well, I'm your newest friend. Nice to meet you. 😃

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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by KHOU BLake » Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:55 pm

tropiKal wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:25 pm
Thank heavens such freezes are a thing of the past. Probably will never happen again.
No, a freeze of that extent may NOT happen again in your life. True. However, I guarantee you it'll happen again. With the changing climate, the jet is becoming more erratic which tells me we may see more arctic outbreaks and more chances for snow.

Houston has a long history of extremely cold temperatures for our latitude.

We've hit the single digits four times in the last 150 years. It nearly happened twice within 7 years. In 1983, IAH hit 11 degrees and then 7 degrees in 1989. If you count all the times we've hit 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14 degrees, it's quite a few. Memory is short. In 2018, I believe Tomball got to 14 degrees. Crockett dropped to 10 degrees! On January 17th, Conroe dropped to 14 degrees and on the 18th (the next day) dropped to 15 degrees! So I wouldn't say it'll never happen again. It nearly did just three years ago. I'm not quite sure why IAH "only" got to 19 degrees but everybody to its east and west were 3 to 5 degrees colder than that that morning.

Sometimes we forget but we do live at 30 degrees north latitude. Historic freezes like that leave a lasting impression because they are so superlative. By their nature, they happen twice or three times a life time.

tropiKal
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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by tropiKal » Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:23 pm

KHOU BLake wrote:
Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:55 pm
No, a freeze of that extent may NOT happen again in your life.
Already in the past 30 years, temps citywide have largely been struggling to dip below 20F. And things will only get milder overall as climate change continues. I'm not saying that there won't be cold snaps in the future, but I just can't see such 1989 level of deep freeze ever returning.

I'm in my very early 20s, so there's ample time to see that it will all be correct.

With the changing climate, the jet is becoming more erratic which tells me we may see more arctic outbreaks and more chances for snow.
But that would only matter if the northern source regions remain cold enough to begin with. There's still (infinitesimal) wiggle-room in the near term, but that rapidly shuts out going further into the future - the deep freezes of yesteryear become the cool breezes of tomorrow.

Even the erratic jet behavior itself could only be temporary. With time going on, the differences in change start leveling out, allowing more relaxation of the jet stream. Ultimately, it all could even encourage a completely barotropic setup with the extinction of frontal boundaries.

Houston has a long history of extremely cold temperatures for our latitude.

We've hit the single digits four times in the last 150 years. It nearly happened twice within 7 years. In 1983, IAH hit 11 degrees and then 7 degrees in 1989. If you count all the times we've hit 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14 degrees, it's quite a few. Memory is short. In 2018, I believe Tomball got to 14 degrees. Crockett dropped to 10 degrees! On January 17th, Conroe dropped to 14 degrees and on the 18th (the next day) dropped to 15 degrees! So I wouldn't say it'll never happen again. It nearly did just three years ago. I'm not quite sure why IAH "only" got to 19 degrees but everybody to its east and west were 3 to 5 degrees colder than that that morning.

Sometimes we forget but we do live at 30 degrees north latitude. Historic freezes like that leave a lasting impression because they are so superlative. By their nature, they happen twice or three times a life time.
Yes, I already mentioned in a previous post the occurrence of such cold temps throughout the city's history. But since 1990, IAH only saw three instances of winter temperatures below 20F, with HOU seeing only one such instance. Rural areas in northern/inland parts of the metro would have been a bit colder, but it's all still a general warming trend across the board.

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Re: December 1989 Freeze

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:27 am

tropiKal wrote:
Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:23 pm
KHOU BLake wrote:
Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:55 pm
No, a freeze of that extent may NOT happen again in your life.
Already in the past 30 years, temps citywide have largely been struggling to dip below 20F. And things will only get milder overall as climate change continues. I'm not saying that there won't be cold snaps in the future, but I just can't see such 1989 level of deep freeze ever returning.

I'm in my very early 20s, so there's ample time to see that it will all be correct.

With the changing climate, the jet is becoming more erratic which tells me we may see more arctic outbreaks and more chances for snow.
But that would only matter if the northern source regions remain cold enough to begin with. There's still (infinitesimal) wiggle-room in the near term, but that rapidly shuts out going further into the future - the deep freezes of yesteryear become the cool breezes of tomorrow.

Even the erratic jet behavior itself could only be temporary. With time going on, the differences in change start leveling out, allowing more relaxation of the jet stream. Ultimately, it all could even encourage a completely barotropic setup with the extinction of frontal boundaries.

Houston has a long history of extremely cold temperatures for our latitude.

We've hit the single digits four times in the last 150 years. It nearly happened twice within 7 years. In 1983, IAH hit 11 degrees and then 7 degrees in 1989. If you count all the times we've hit 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14 degrees, it's quite a few. Memory is short. In 2018, I believe Tomball got to 14 degrees. Crockett dropped to 10 degrees! On January 17th, Conroe dropped to 14 degrees and on the 18th (the next day) dropped to 15 degrees! So I wouldn't say it'll never happen again. It nearly did just three years ago. I'm not quite sure why IAH "only" got to 19 degrees but everybody to its east and west were 3 to 5 degrees colder than that that morning.

Sometimes we forget but we do live at 30 degrees north latitude. Historic freezes like that leave a lasting impression because they are so superlative. By their nature, they happen twice or three times a life time.
Yes, I already mentioned in a previous post the occurrence of such cold temps throughout the city's history. But since 1990, IAH only saw three instances of winter temperatures below 20F, with HOU seeing only one such instance. Rural areas in northern/inland parts of the metro would have been a bit colder, but it's all still a general warming trend across the board.
The last decade has been colder overall than the 2000s and 1990s. You have to go back to the 1980s to find a colder decade.

And absolutist predictions have happened since the 1950s. In the 70s, a new ice age was coming. In the late 90s the polar ice caps would be long gone by 2015. Turns out neither were right.

People who speak in absolutes are almost never right. They also don’t take into account how solar affects our weather.

Blake hit the nail on the head.
Team #NeverSummer

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