General Weather Discussions and Analysis
I was sweating after getting home from HEB. The wind has shifted up here and cooled substantially since then, but definitely tropiKal in HOU.
Front lifts tomorrow and then a secondary surge clears the way for a sunny and mild to seasonable week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Enough drier air has made it west and northwest of I-45 and
Highway 59 to allow cigs/vis to lift and even scatter out at some
locations. This will probably be short lived and anticipate cigs
to fill back in and lower into ifr territory across all TAF sites
prior to midnight. Sea fog has also shifted offshore, but latest
guidance shows it creeping back toward Galveston Bay around
midnight and then filling in across areas south of I-10 overnight.
LIFR conditions will be probable at times then. Very limited
improvement expected during the late morning hours and perhaps a
few hours of MVFR cigs during the afternoon inland. But, warm
front begins moving back inland after 20z or so, bring with it the
typical -ra/dz/br/fg. So unfavorable flying conditions persist
into Sat night. 47
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Night]...
The front has stalled offshore and is shallow (HGX-THOU radar
indicating the very weak CAA occuring below 2800ft) with
modification evident offshore per satellite. Sea fog looks to have
pooled along and south of the boundary. While over SETX this
afternoon drier air mixed in from the southwest and even some of
the coastal areas as far as Galveston got a quick look at the
sun...but alas that has ended and now the clouds are returning and
will aggressive return this evening. Fog should return as well
although somewhat patchy to start off with over the
eastern/northern/southeastern areas then becoming more widespread
by midnight-3 am. Dense fog is possible but to pinpoint an area is
challenging - for now would favor the nearshore waters/coastal
counties toward morning. Rain chances look slim but some drizzle
is possible with trace to very light accumulations. Saturday some
drier air aloft is getting recirculated into the area from the
northeast and some breaks in the cloud cover look possible over
the northeastern areas but may be much more persistent over the
south. Temperatures Saturday will be a little cooler (weak CAA
ending/clouds) but then the front moves back north out of the
waters going into late Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain threat
increases with the increased upglide and warm front proximity as
a weak s/w embedded in the subtropical jet slides into the
area...again on the light side as for accumulations...rain chances
only in the 40-50 percent range but these will probably need
upping dramatically as the timing gets narrowed down...but again
it may be more of a widespread light rain Saturday night.
Saturday night/early Sunday morning the fog threat should be back
and primarily over the coastal areas and southwestern areas.
LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...
With onshore winds back in force along with a weak upper level dis-
turbance moving across, we`ll be expecting warm/humid weather with
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms possible. Per the timing/
track of the warm front, the highest POPs should be along to south
of this boundary as the day progresses inland. Along/near the bays
and coast, sea fog is expected to be an issue once again. A potent
upper level short-wave passing over the southern Rockies will then
help to drag a strong cold front down the Southern Plains into the
state Sun night/Mon. While mostof the previous runs have indicated
some timing discrepancies with this next cold front, these current
ones seem to be in slightly better agreement- pushing the boundary
through SE TX to the coast by Mon afternoon (or thereabouts). Will
keep with fairly high POPs with FROPA (given the PWs of around 1.5
inches and weak upper jet dynamics).
In the wake of this front, long range guidance appears to be trend-
ing a bit drier than previous. Another strong short-wave is progged
to move across the Great Plains by Weds and this system should draw
a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air down into the region for the re-
mainder of the week. 41
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 66 60 73 61 / 20 10 30 50 70
Houston (IAH) 59 67 61 74 66 / 20 10 40 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 59 63 60 68 64 / 20 10 30 20 30
Looks like Lake Charles can see what comes from southeast Texas and surrounding areas on the LCH radar again since repairs are finished from Hurricane Laura. Good thing ahead of storm season and the next hurricane season.
I'll take my 5 inches of snow every time.
TBF as well, we've had more NW flow aloft and more sunny days until this last week than most Texas winters.
Winter isn't over yet. We'll have more frosts, freezes in February. You never know about a(nother) fluke snow in a La Nina winter.