January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
ArizonaAZMeador
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Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:51 pm

Wishing for heat and humidity in Houston should be a sin. This board is dead. So. Lets start a bitter cold and frozen precip discussion. Anyone with model access,,,please look for anything positive regarding cold and snow. I dont mean wishcasting,just any positive trends.

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Re: January 2021

Post by BlueJay » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:04 pm

It's been a lovely winter weekend!

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Katdaddy
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Re: January 2021

Post by Katdaddy » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:13 pm

68F, 27% humidity, a light WSW breeze and sunny skies in the backyard. Perfect Chamber of Commerce weather across SE TX today!
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ArizonaAZMeador
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Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:13 pm

This dry air is no good without cold,snow, and wetbulbing

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tireman4
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Re: January 2021

Post by tireman4 » Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:09 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 172129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Cloud cover briefly returned to the area as a weak shortwave passed
through the area this morning. A quiet weather day is expected
across Southeast Texas as high pressure remains overhead. Mid-level
flow is still northwesterly, so we`re still seeing the advection of
dry air (and a bit of dust) as dew points this afternoon have fallen
into the mid 20s. This creates a bit of concern for fire weather as
RH values are down into the 20-30% range. Surface winds will remain
around 5-8 knots and transition to light and variable by the late
afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures for today will be in the mid-
to-upper 60s thanks to the plentiful dry air. Temperatures will be a
bit warmer beginning tonight as the area of high pressure pushes off
to the east and introduces a southeasterly flow into the CWA. Most
of us will be waving goodbye to lows in the 30s as the southeasterly
wind will only allow temperatures to drop into the low 40s. Our
northern counties will still drop into the upper 30s. For our cold
weather fans, this will be the last cold night for the rest of the
work week. By tomorrow, high temperatures will breach the 70 degree
mark for most locations and low temperatures will be in the mid-to-
upper 50s courtesy of some good ol` WAA as southeasterly winds
continue to strengthen. The upward trend of temperatures continues
into Tuesday with highs topping out in the mid 70s.

The southeasterly flow is an integral part of the forecast for this
upcoming week because it will provide more than just WAA. Theta-E
(instability) and PWATs will gradually increase across Southeast
Texas beginning on Monday afternoon. This is important because a
cold front is expected to stall over our northwestern counties on
Tuesday morning which will create an area of convergence. At this
point, PWATs will be around an inch across most of Southeast Texas.
Rain chances will be highest across the northwestern portion of the
CWA for Tuesday thanks to the lift provided by the frontal boundary.
Relatively dry mid-levels and a subsidence inversion around 700 mb
left over from the departing area of high pressure indicates that
heavy rain is not likely, at least through Tuesday afternoon.
Moisture will continue to increase going into midweek as the
southeasterly winds persist and will eventually mix out this
inversion and moisten up the mid-levels. 26

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Shallow, stalled frontal boundary will linger about northern
parts of the CWA into Wed then eventually washout Wed night &
Thurs. This boundary, along with embedded disturbances riding in
the swly flow aloft will provide continued chances of precip in
that general vicinity. Further south, lack of a focusing/forcing
mechanism and mid level ridging nosing into the area from the
Gulf will be limiting factors for precip. But they won`t be left
out of the dreariness - persistent llvl warm/moist onshore winds
moving over cooler shelf waters should produce cldy conditions and
a somewhat favorable set-up for sea fog into the weekend. Next
upper trof digs down the west coast this weekend, but medium range
solns are not on the same page in regards to when it`ll start
making some ewd progression. This leads to considerable fcst
uncertainty Sat- Tue, but figure we`ll see at least some iso/sct
precip around until we get its associated frontal boundary thru
the region which appears beyond the scope of this fcst package. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly winds and smooth seas persist as high pressure
remains overhead. This area of high pressure will begin to push off
to the east overnight, which will introduce an onshore southeasterly
flow that will gradually strengthen. Wind speeds will approach SCA
criteria on Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The onshore flow
will persist through most of the week seas will build up to 4-7
feet by Tuesday. Moisture will be on the rise as well which will
bring about the threat of sea fog from Tuesday night and into the
weekend for the coastal areas and nearshore waters. A cold front
will approach the coast late on Friday, but forecast models
indicate that it will not push all the way through. Wind flow
transitions to southerly by the start of the weekend. 26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 39 69 56 72 52 / 0 0 20 40 50
Houston (IAH) 41 68 57 72 55 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 51 64 59 66 58 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

ArizonaAZMeador
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Re: January 2021

Post by ArizonaAZMeador » Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:22 pm

What a joke of a forecast. Even for Houston in mid Jan. SE winds high humidity a stalled front all week. Its pathetic when it is Jan and you cant even get a front through Houston. Im getting angry. Houston is running out of time for chances of cold and snow.

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:07 pm

Katdaddy wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:13 pm
68F, 27% humidity, a light WSW breeze and sunny skies in the backyard. Perfect Chamber of Commerce weather across SE TX today!
Another great day. I wish I had been outside more!

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Re: January 2021

Post by Andrew » Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:09 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:07 pm
Katdaddy wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:13 pm
68F, 27% humidity, a light WSW breeze and sunny skies in the backyard. Perfect Chamber of Commerce weather across SE TX today!
Another great day. I wish I had been outside more!
Pretty much picture perfect today. Looks like a warming trend is in store this week with another strong cold front possible early/mid next week.
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danmaloney
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Re: January 2021

Post by danmaloney » Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:13 pm

When is the next serious rain chance and major cold front?

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Re: January 2021

Post by Andrew » Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:17 am

danmaloney wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:13 pm
When is the next serious rain chance and major cold front?
The next chance for rain is Tuesday into Wednesday but it doesn't look like a washout or anything close to that. Just some isolated to scattered showers, mainly over the northern half of the region. The next big cold front isn't likely until sometime early/mid of next week.
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