January 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: January 2021

Post by tireman4 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:13 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 181033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Night]...
As the surface high pressure leaves our region, southeast winds will
return, bringing in some WAA and higher PWATs over SE Texas. That
being said, daytime highs will reach 70 for most of our CWA and
upper 60s everywhere else today and then reach the low-to-mid 70s on
Tuesday. Say goodbye to freezing temps as overnight lows tonight
will reach the upper 50s. Increased low-to-mid level moisture and an
approaching cold front will also bring in gradual cloud coverage
today.

On Tuesday, a positively tilted trough will be located over SW CONUS
and nearly zonal flow will be on top of our CWA. A surface cold
front is expected to push through SE Texas and stall across our
northwestern counties bringing the highest rain chances over those
areas. Despite daytime heating, warm theta-e advection, higher
PWATs, and surface convergence along the front, heavy rain is not
expected on Tuesday. This is due to residual dry air in the lower
and mid-levels along with a surface inversion due left over by the
previous high pressure system. However, the previous
aforementioned low-level forcing/moistening mechanisms will slowly
erode that inversion and enrich the low-to-mid levels. KBL &&


LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...

Wednesday, rain chances continue to increase with the higher chances
west of I-45. The weak cold front, now quasi-stationary in the
northwestern/western region of the CWA. Higher rain chances will
still stay northward, mainly north of I-10 over Wednesday night.
While onshore flow continually brings gulf moisture into the area,
lack of instability will keep thunderstorm development minimal at
best. Thursday the system will start to drag across the CWA,
mostly parallel to the coastline, which may decrease rain chances
across the forecast area as lift weakens.

Friday the lift along the boundary will continue to move out the
area with some chances of rain still lingering in the northeastern
counties, but almost diminishes by Friday night. Friday night,
winds will begin shifting northeasterly as the front pushes to the
coastal waters into Saturday morning. Saturday will continue the
decrease in rain trend as onshore flow returns in the evening.
Sunday, onshore flow continues and rain chances return to SETX in
the wake of a warm front. Monday, a cold front approaches and is
expected to enter the northwestern counties in the morning and
pass through the southeastern counties Monday evening. 35


&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions expected this morning and afternoon. Gradually,
increasing cloud coverage will form at approximately 3000-5000 ft
this afternoon due to an approaching front and a VFR ceiling will
form near 19Z. Later tonight, that will transition to an MVFR
ceiling with OVC conditions at 2500 ft. This afternoon, SE winds
will gradually increase and become gusty. VCSH and possible SHRA
will begin towards the end of the TAF period for our northern
terminals such as CLL and UTS as that front approaches. KBL

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds this morning will become southeasterly and southerly
and begin strengthening as pressures lower of W TX this afternoon.
Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots occasionally 15 to 20 knots will
persist through Tuesday (the stronger winds should be out beyond
20nm). Wednesday the flow backs to the east and southeast and this
should in turn increase the chances for sea fog over the colder
shelf waters. Thursday the low levels slowly moisten further as
winds come back to the south and the intermittent sea fog threat
will likely persist into the weekend. Some differences in the
extended guidance stand out going into Saturday afternoon/night
with either full southeasterly flow or the frontal boundary
stalling near the coast then very slowly lifting north.
Confidence in timing beyond Friday diminishes quickly but overall
expect a warming trend with increasing southerly flow Sunday
possibly approaching SCA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 69 57 68 50 61 / 0 50 70 60 40
Houston (IAH) 69 58 72 54 67 / 0 20 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 64 60 67 57 63 / 0 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KBL
LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...35/45

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Re: January 2021

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:32 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

.AVIATION...

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are expected this morning. A
corridor of deeper moisture will affect western TAF sites this
morning and with some spotty showers but these should wane as the
deeper moisture moves north and west. A cold front will approach
the area late this afternoon. The front is shallow but it should
be capable of producing a broken line of showers near KUTS and
KCLL between 23-05z. The showers are expected to weaken and
dissipate before reaching the Houston terminals as the front
encounters some drier air and stronger capping. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and IFR ceilings are
expected to prevail through at least 15z Wednesday AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/

SHORT TERM...

At 3 AM, a weak cold front extended across the state from about
Texarkana to Austin to Del Rio. Weak warm air advection showers
will persist this morning but the deeper moisture today gets
shunted north and west as slightly drier air nudges into the
region from the east. It`s a pretty warm start to the day as
clouds and a bit of mixing from winds kept overnight lows near 60
so it won`t take much heating to boost MaxT values back into the
70`s, and possibly mid/upper 70`s depending on whether there are a
couple breaks of sun.

The front will continue to slowly sink southward today and should
reach the College Station area around 00z or so. The front will
generate some showers as it approaches the northern edge of the
CWA but drier air to the south will probably limit the the
southward extent of the rain. The front will cross the rest of the
region this evening reaching Houston around 03z and the coast
around 09z. The cool air mass in the wake of the front is shallow
with strong capping in the 85-70 mb layer. Moisture trapped
beneath the cap will bring a low overcast and perhaps some drizzle
or very light rain overnight. Leaned toward the cooler MET
guidance since it generally handles these shallow cool air masses
better than the GFS and the blends.

On Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure will develop along the
nearly stationary front and winds will back to the east and
eventually SE by Wednesday night. Moisture levels are modest on
Weds with PW values between 1.20 and 1.40 inches with the deeper
moisture over the western half of the CWA. Jet dynamics look
meager and other than some weak low level convergence along the
the diffuse front, not finding much in the way of lift. Fcst
soundings also show dry moisture profiles with a lot of dry air
at 850 mb and strong capping at 700 mb. Temperatures won`t fall
much on Wednesday night as warm air advection coupled with cloud
cover should keep MinT values on the warm side. Fcst soundings do
show the moisture profile looking more favorable after 06z and
toward Thursday so rain chances look a bit higher Wednesday night
into Thursday as PW values climb to around 1.70 inches. Could
start to see some sea fog near the coast Wednesday night as sfc
dew points reach the lower 60`s overriding cooler water
temperatures in the mid 50`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

On Thursday, a stalled frontal boundary along the northern
counties will persist through the day. Most of the higher rain
chances will remain north of I-10, and with the lack of any
instability or lift, these will mainly remain showers. Onshore
flow will continue to bring gulf moisture over the area increasing
PWs to around 1.80 inches, but the major moisture axis will
remain to the north of the forecast area. Along the coastal
counties, sea fog well become an issue starting Thursday and
current profiles suggest to last through the weekend. Friday
continues the same trend with the boundary migrating some in the
northern counties, but still keeping most rain chances north.

By Friday evening, the cold front will start moving across the CWA
and enter the coastal waters by Thursday morning. This brings in the
better rain chances across the CWA though higher chances will still
remain outside the forecast area. Totals will be on the lite side
with a quarter of an inch being generous and trace amounts more
probable. Northwesterly flow over Friday night and Saturday morning
will quickly return to an onshore flow as high pressure moves off
the east and ridges into the region. Warm temperatures will
persist for through early next week with the exception of
Saturday showing brief a cool down in the wake of Friday`s
front. Lows will mainly stay in the mid 50s to around 60 until
early next week with the next cold front. The next front is
expected to cross the region next Monday night with slightly
cooler conditions developing next Tuesday. 35

MARINE...

Currently, SCA conditions expected to remain in our offshore waters
20-60nm out until mid-morning when winds and seas begin to subside.
This will be followed by SCEC conditions in our far southeastern
waters until early afternoon due to 6ft seas until those subside as
well. With warm air moving over our cold shelf waters, sea fog is
expected this week with some patchy fog possible as early as this
morning. However, the best chances for sea fog are Wed-Fri due to
favorable E-NE winds on Wednesday followed by southerly winds on
Thursday. A frontal system slowly pushes through our coastal waters
on Friday through Saturday and this will help dissipate that sea
fog. KBL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 48 60 54 70 / 60 60 20 20 40
Houston (IAH) 73 54 66 59 73 / 20 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 68 57 65 60 68 / 0 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

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Re: January 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:35 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:47 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:44 am
I woke-up to a nose bleed. I’m done with winter and ready for some humidity again. It does look like a nice day though if the wind would calm down.

Do you have a humidifier? Even boiling water helps. I have sinus problems, and have been experimenting with saline nasal sprays - Arm & Hammer with saline with bicarb seems to be the most soothing and passageway clearing.

No way I'm wishing on heat and humidity, though! ;)
We’ve talked about getting one.

I’m glad some humidity is back in the air with milder temps. I’m by no means wishing for ‘muggy’ warm humidity but it feels great not having to put a jacket on. This week’s forecast looks fine to me. 👍🏻

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Re: January 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:10 am

Pea soup outside. Bring back the cold and dry and sweep this on out of here.

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Re: January 2021

Post by vci_guy2003 » Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:35 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:10 am
Pea soup outside. Bring back the cold and dry and sweep this on out of here.
Truth

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Re: January 2021

Post by Katdaddy » Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:37 am

Not much fog this morning along the coastal areas compared to last night. Another mild day across SE TX with increasing rain chances across SE TX this afternoon as the messy mild weather pattern continues onward.
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CrashTestDummy
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Re: January 2021

Post by CrashTestDummy » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:36 am

Less fog now, and 4 degrees warmer than it was 12 hours ago. Wind still out of the south here.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."

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Re: January 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jan 21, 2021 4:47 pm

Very wet up here in BCS. BEtter tomorrow, but warm.

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Re: January 2021

Post by danmaloney » Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:11 pm

It is mid January. Even for Houston, this south wind, temperature, is bringing a yucky icky feeling to the air. Even for Houston, this is not mid Jan weather. Where is the cold air at?

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Re: January 2021

Post by jasons2k » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:17 am

According to the NWS, the front should push a little further offshore today.

In case y’all read it too:
Peek: look quickly, typically in a furtive manner.
"faces peeked from behind the curtains"

Peak: the pointed top of a mountain.
"the snowy peaks rose against the blue of a cloudless sky"

Happy Friday everyone!

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