February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
AtascocitaWX
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txsnowmaker wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:09 am Umm... this is looking to be much more than a freezing rain/ice event for Houston if the latest GFS comes to pass. Around a foot and a half of snow for the city of Houston. Incredible.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_35.png
I rather this solution happens , rather have snow then Ice .
Ice Storms are nasty and dangerous
walsean1
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There are so many overpasses in the Houston area alone that a prolonged ice storm would be devestating. Salting the roads ahead of time would prove to be useless
txsnowmaker
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Key message for me from Jeff: “Forecast soundings indicate all precipitation types would be possible (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) at various times during the period as the shallow arctic air mass deepens over the area.” I know the NWS is conservative but their discussion about wintry mix limited to northern and western counties and surface temps “near freezing” baffles me a bit.
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srainhoutx
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My suggestion is that folks should use today to get your preparations around the house done while it's relatively warm. Protect your pipes, drain your sprinkler systems and prep pool equipment if you have a swimming pool.
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Kingwood36
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txsnowmaker wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:26 am Key message for me from Jeff: “Forecast soundings indicate all precipitation types would be possible (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) at various times during the period as the shallow arctic air mass deepens over the area.” I know the NWS is conservative but their discussion about wintry mix limited to northern and western counties and surface temps “near freezing” baffles me a bit.
I dont I pay attention to them till like the day before the event happens..they will stay conservative all the way most likely..ya the north and west counties will see wintery weather..but I imagine EVERYBODY in SE TX will see something...not just those counties again they are very conservative
TexasMetBlake
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Digging through the records for the 15th and 16th, looks like we have some 1895 records that could fall!

Monday, 15th: Record Low Max: 32 degrees set in 1909. Models are showing 20s.
Record Low: 13 in 1895. Models show 30s.

Tuesday, 16th: Record Low Max: 36 degrees in 1895 (I'm surprised that 'warm' record has held up this long). Models show 20s/low 30s
Record Low: 13 deg in 1895. Models show low single digits.

Wed, 17th: Record Low Max: 33 deg in 1903. Models show it being close.
Record Low: 16 in 1895. Models show mid teens.

Lot of ancient records seem to be in jeopardy! And it's funny because I spoke with a met friend the other day and I actually said, "of all our records, the one that will still be standing 500 years from now will be the Low Max High of 20 degrees and lows of 6 for those days." Oops.
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christinac2016
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So it seems it is coming. But living in Texas all my life I know that the slightest thing can change it in either direction.
It was magical in 2018 to see big snow flakes falling from the sky. They didn't stick but it was still magical. I will go to store later and buy stuff for soup.
Question - does anyone speculate that it might be an event such as the 1973 (year my profile picture was taken)?
Kingwood36
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I have a feeling this won't age well
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djmike
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NWS for Beaumont which is LC finally bit...still feel they are being conservative...
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snowman65
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OK, I mentioned this yesterday but need to look at it again. We are supposed to head to Irving Friday morning and drive back Sunday. My concern is road conditions during the trip, especially Sunday for the drive home.....thoughts?? Thanks
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