February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not to impress with the gfs run

Nothing has changed. It may be a little slower than 0z which is fine by me

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not to impress with the gfs run

Ya that run kept alot of the area rain lol....

It’s not rain. Look at the temps when that rain is falling. In the 20s.

Stop looking for a lot of snow. It’s not happening and never was. This is a sleet and freezing rain event with maybe a bit of snow at the end.

[jerryh421]

Not to impress with the gfs run

Nothing has changed. It may be a little slower than 0z which is fine by me

Would a slower solution allow more time for colder air to filter in?

[jasons2k]

Not to impress with the gfs run

Nothing has changed. It may be a little slower than 0z which is fine by me

Would a slower solution allow more time for colder air to filter in?

More like a longer duration of precipitation.

The GFS has a known progressive bias and may be coming to its senses by slowing things down a bit. If anything, we could be looking at more ice.

[Cpv17]

Not to impress with the gfs run

Ya that run kept alot of the area rain lol....

It’s not rain. Look at the temps when that rain is falling. In the 20s.

Stop looking for a lot of snow. It’s not happening and never was. This is a sleet and freezing rain event with maybe a bit of snow at the end.

I hope this system on Monday isn’t too progressive.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Nothing has changed. It may be a little slower than 0z which is fine by me

Would a slower solution allow more time for colder air to filter in?

More like a longer duration of precipitation.

The GFS has a known progressive bias and may be coming to its senses. If anything, we could be looking at more ice.

This. 2-4 inches of sleet and .25-.5 freezing rain

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ya that run kept alot of the area rain lol....

It’s not rain. Look at the temps when that rain is falling. In the 20s.

Stop looking for a lot of snow. It’s not happening and never was. This is a sleet and freezing rain event with maybe a bit of snow at the end.

I hope this system on Monday isn’t too progressive.

GFS seems to be the fastest at this point.

It’s going to be icy Monday.

[Dls2010r]

What about Galveston County?

[Dls2010r]

Not hearing much for us.

[don]

12Z CMC looks similar to the ICON with a minor winter storm Saturday into Valentines day.It also has more precip and is less progressive than its 0z run with the Presidents Day storm.

[don]

We need to watch Wednesday's storm also...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

After seeing model bust after model bust this week, I’m shaving and expecting 5 degrees off next week.

I was supposed to be 44-45 for a high today. Won’t come close.

[snowman65]

I think I'm going to play it safe and cancel my trip to Dallas this weekend. Too long of a drive to press my luck...

[redneckweather]

Why doesn't Wxman post in this forum? He posts over in Storm2k regularly which is 90% Texas Yankees, not even his neck of the woods.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like Austin and CS are getting in on some snow at the moment on radar..was that forecast to happen so early?

I have seen a couple of reports just NW of Austin for sleet/snow, but the reports just N of BCS is light freezing rain. I suspect we will see reports inch closer to SE Texas the next couple of days as disturbances ripple along the SW flow aloft ahead of the big surge of Arctic air Saturday.

It's rain and freezing rain still.

[DoctorMu]

Yep... models suck with these types of fronts.

That’s wild to think about given how cold they are showing but shaving 3-5 off is probably a decent bet

We're just about freezing right now. The last 3 days have been colder than predicted.

[txsnowmaker]

12Z CMC looks similar to the ICON with a minor winter storm Saturday into Valentines day.It also has more precip and is less progressive than its 0z run with the Presidents Day storm.

Looks like snow to me.

[AtascocitaWX]

So ok with the temperatures being 3-5 degrees lower then the model runs, why would it be more Sleet/Freezing Rain and not Snow on Monday like some have suggested?

[DoctorMu]

Winter Weather Advisory hoisted for Brazos • Burleson • Lee • Madison Counties.

Yep. Our forecast today and tonight is now(casting) rain/sleet/freezing rain. We're pretty much on Nowcasting through next Thursday.

[snowman65]

12Z CMC looks similar to the ICON with a minor winter storm Saturday into Valentines day.It also has more precip and is less progressive than its 0z run with the Presidents Day storm.

Looks like snow to me.

It depends on what RADAR you are looking at. If you are using the MYradar app it will be blue and it will make you think it's snow but it's either sleet or freezing rain. It looks different on the weather channel app RADAR..it's pink on there.