February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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TexasBreeze wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:20 pm Never thought I would see ~ almost the entire state under a winter storm warning at one time. Incredible!
It’s surreal. I still can’t believe it. I’ve spent my entire life waiting for a moment like this.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:48 pm Im in katy, could I see accumulating snow?
I’d say Katy could be in the 4-6” zone.
txsnowmaker
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Channel 11 says 100% chance of heavy snow on Monday for Houston. More snow Wednesday/Thursday. Says for Houston to expect near-blizzard conditions on Monday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KHOUBlake11/ ... 1593731077

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 7878777834
Last edited by txsnowmaker on Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
dac
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Me too! Lifetime event for sure!
TexasMetBlake
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Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models are busting and looking back at 89 and 1899 and comparing and contrasting. Also, sometimes we forget to just go outside and look. The artic air has a sharpness to it. It just feels brutal. So through pattern recognition, models busting and looking upstream, we've determined that we'll likely not only make a run at the all-time record low max but also at the all-time record low. We're likely to have a tremendous amount of ice and snow on the ground. Couple that with a clearing sky (Even if not totally clear) and you have the recipe for a wipeout of records. I'm not saying its likely but certainly possible. This is historic. I never thought I'd use the word 'blizzard' on tv to describe our weather on Monday but that's exactly what's going to happen. It's history. We're lucky enough to experience something that other up and coming meteorologist and weather enthusiasts will look back on a hundred years from now and wonder what it must of been like as we do now about 1895 and 1899. Well, we're about to find out.

Oh, the other reason we have temps below freezing Wednesday into Thursday is because we believe, at least for now, that the amount of ice and snow on the ground will not melt a single bit on Tuesday which will throw off the temperature forecast in the models even more than it already is. Couple that with increasing clouds and a developing storm system, we believe we're in for another round of snow and ice by Wednesday. It could change but that's our thinking right now.
TexasBreeze
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:50 pm
TexasBreeze wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:20 pm Never thought I would see ~ almost the entire state under a winter storm warning at one time. Incredible!
It’s surreal. I still can’t believe it. I’ve spent my entire life waiting for a moment like this.
I have screenshots of these nws maps, model extremes and forecasts just to look back on in the future!
txsnowmaker
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I cannot wait.
Sloth
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Hey y'all!

I've been a lurker here for years now, but I want to make an account to show my gratitude on how much y'all work to give us the best predictions for this historic storm that's waiting to unfold here.

I live near the Spring Branch area and I'm excited to be alive in what could be the biggest winter storm the Houston metro has seen in more than a century! :mrgreen:
Andrew
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KHOU BLake wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:56 pm Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models are busting and looking back at 89 and 1899 and comparing and contrasting. Also, sometimes we forget to just go outside and look. The artic air has a sharpness to it. It just feels brutal. So through pattern recognition, models busting and looking upstream, we've determined that we'll likely not only make a run at the all-time record low max but also at the all-time record low. We're likely to have a tremendous amount of ice and snow on the ground. Couple that with a clearing sky (Even if not totally clear) and you have the recipe for a wipeout of records. I'm not saying its likely but certainly possible. This is historic. I never thought I'd use the word 'blizzard' on tv to describe our weather on Monday but that's exactly what's going to happen. It's history. We're lucky enough to experience something that other up and coming meteorologist and weather enthusiasts will look back on a hundred years from now and wonder what it must of been like as we do now about 1895 and 1899. Well, we're about to find out.

Oh, the other reason we have temps below freezing Wednesday into Thursday is because we believe, at least for now, that the amount of ice and snow on the ground will not melt a single bit on Tuesday which will throw off the temperature forecast in the models even more than it already is. Couple that with increasing clouds and a developing storm system, we believe we're in for another round of snow and ice by Wednesday. It could change but that's our thinking right now.
Thanks for all of y'alls great forecasting! Tell everyone thanks from the KHOU weather forum :D
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Andrew
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Sloth wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:14 pm Hey y'all!

I've been a lurker here for years now, but I want to make an account to show my gratitude on how much y'all work to give us the best predictions for this historic storm that's waiting to unfold here.

I live near the Spring Branch area and I'm excited to be alive in what could be the biggest winter storm the Houston metro has seen in more than a century! :mrgreen:
Hey sloth, thanks for joining the forum. I agree we have a great number of knowledgeable people here and I hope you stick around. Stay warm!
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