February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[don]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...Frigid, life and property threatening winter weather is still
expected to develop across much of Southeast Texas into Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into
midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged
periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at
the beaches.

* Two weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and
another toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across
many parts of Southeast Texas.

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic
power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on
powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will
be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and
hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed
accordingly.

* Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air
and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday
evening. Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not
properly placed/used.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Temperatures so far today have been hovering around or slightly below
freezing across our northwest counties, mid to upper 30s central and
lower to mid 40s coast. Almost nothing has been showing up on radar,
but that will change beginning tonight as the first disturbance moves
across the area and produces frozen precipitation north (where lows
will be near or slightly below freezing) and rain to the south (where
temperatures above freezing are expected). At 9 PM, the Winter Storm
Warning begins up north, and the Winter Storm Watch begins down south.
For the most part, light accumulations are expected overnight through
much of tomorrow morning with this first system, but any accumulations
in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions.

High resolution models coming in are painting a potentially very dangerous
winter weather event over at least the next 48 hours (through Monday),
and with a long period of below freezing temperatures, very dangerous
conditions look to be setting up for parts of the area Tuesday through
Thursday night (see the Long Term section below).

The stronger system begins tomorrow afternoon and peaks tomorrow night
through early Monday morning. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area
under the Warning through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, expect to see periods of rain
mixed with freezing rain/drizzle up north that will eventually transition
to snow, and expect to see periods of rain transitioning to rain mixed
with freezing rain/drizzle that eventually could transition to snow
down south...including the beaches. High resolution models coming in
are showing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow north (locally
higher amounts possible) with lower amounts as you get closer to the
coast. Further to the south, freezing rain accumulations may reach
a tenth to a quarter inch. If this happens, expect to see sporadic
power outages where the buildup occurs on powerlines and/or trees.
Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if
not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for
those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Monday`s high temperatures
will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the
20s south and coast. A Hard Freeze Watch and a Wind Chill Watch begin
at 6 PM Monday for the entire area, and they will likely need to be
upgraded to a Warning.

You only have about one day left to prepare for this potentially historic
winter event! 42

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

While the first round of winter precipitation comes to an end on
Monday afternoon, the other dangerous hazard going into the
overnight hours will be the extremely dangerous low temperatures. On
Tuesday morning, lows will be near zero in our northern counties,
around 10-15 degrees near Houston and in the upper-teens/lower 20s
along the coast. None of the winter precipitation will melt, so
travel conditions will be extremely hazardous through at least
Tuesday afternoon. This arctic air will be very frigid, and those
without the proper attire will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors
for an extended period of time. For Tuesday, areas north of I-10
will likely remain below freezing even into the afternoon hours, so
any winter precipitation that has previously fallen will remain and
so will the hazardous travel conditions. South of I-10, temperatures
will make it into the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s along the
coast.

A surface coastal low begins to develop late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. This will bring another round of precipitation to
the area throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
Model guidance is still iffy on the temperatures as far as the
freezing line goes. There is consistency that the initial surge of
moisture comes early on Wednesday when our northern counties will
still be below freezing. Forecast soundings support a freezing
rain/sleet mix initially for this area. Temperatures expected to
rise above freezing in the afternoon hours, so a transition over to
rain is anticipated during this timeframe. As far as the Wednesday
temperatures go, it`ll be close (talking a 1-2 degree difference)
for our far northern counties on if they get above freezing. GFS and
Euro are in agreement on a transition back to freezing rain going
into Wednesday night for our northern counties as temperatures begin
to fall, followed by a transition to snow on early Thursday morning
as the precipitation finally comes to an end. Overnight temperatures
for Wednesday will drop below freezing once again for most of the
area (the exception being along the coast and our far southeastern
locations). With ground temperatures likely not recovering enough,
we could have another period of hazardous travel conditions for
Wednesday night/Thursday.

This may sound like a broken record, but high temperatures on
Thursday are likely to remain below freezing once again for our
northern counties. It is a very real possibility that our northern
locations may not reach above 32 degrees until Friday. Further to
south, temperatures will make it into the upper 30s/low 40s. The
somewhat good news is that high pressure will be moving in from the
west, so we`ll see clearing skies and an end to the winter
precipitation. The mostly clear skies combined with continued CAA
with northerly winds flowing over the ice that will still be in
place to the north means we`re expecting another hard freeze for
Thursday night with temperatures down into the teens up north and in
the 20s near the Houston metro area and south. High pressure moves
off to the east on Friday and puts us into a southerly flow.
Temperatures will FINALLY get out of the 30s as we see high
temperatures back into the 40s/50s which seems rather warm in
comparison. Southerly flow continues into Saturday where we will
likely see temperatures rise into the 60s. How`s that for a
temperature swing? 26

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts near 30 knots continue to
persist. SCA will remain in place for all the waters through
tomorrow night as these conditions will continue to persist. Heading
into Sunday, winds will become northeasterly as a coastal low begins
to develop in the western Gulf. Wind speeds will increase to 30-35
knots with gusts over 40 knots in the timeframe of Sunday
night/Monday morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for this time period
as a result. Additionally, seas will build up to 12-13 feet offshore
and 7-8 feet nearshore. As the low pushes off to the east, strong
offshore flow returns in its wake and seas will begin to decrease
throughout the day on Monday. Another potential hazard for this
event will be freezing spray with the prolonged period of freezing
temperatures. Wind speeds will start to come down on Tuesday morning
as well. Another coastal low will spin up on Wednesday morning and
bring another period of SCA conditions as offshore winds of 20-25
knots return. 26

[txsnowmaker]

Im in katy, could I see accumulating snow?

Yes

[cwalder01]

Nope..I just didn't know if they went inland so many miles or what determined it
[/quote]

I live in Angleton and have always considered us inland.

[nlosrgr8]

I get my shot Sunday at 12:30...NRG....do y’all see any problems? So I guess from Sugar Land area up Hwy 90...TYIA

[Kingwood36]

Know team still bullish for the next storm on wed

[Kingwood36]

Nope..I just didn't know if they went inland so many miles or what determined it

I live in Angleton and have always considered us inland.
[/quote]

Howdy neighbor!

[txsnowmaker]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...Frigid, life and property threatening winter weather is still
expected to develop across much of Southeast Texas into Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into
midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged
periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at
the beaches.

* Two weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and
another toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across
many parts of Southeast Texas.

* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic
power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on
powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will
be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and
hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed
accordingly.

* Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air
and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday
evening. Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not
properly placed/used.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Temperatures so far today have been hovering around or slightly below
freezing across our northwest counties, mid to upper 30s central and
lower to mid 40s coast. Almost nothing has been showing up on radar,
but that will change beginning tonight as the first disturbance moves
across the area and produces frozen precipitation north (where lows
will be near or slightly below freezing) and rain to the south (where
temperatures above freezing are expected). At 9 PM, the Winter Storm
Warning begins up north, and the Winter Storm Watch begins down south.
For the most part, light accumulations are expected overnight through
much of tomorrow morning with this first system, but any accumulations
in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions.

High resolution models coming in are painting a potentially very dangerous
winter weather event over at least the next 48 hours (through Monday),
and with a long period of below freezing temperatures, very dangerous
conditions look to be setting up for parts of the area Tuesday through
Thursday night (see the Long Term section below).

The stronger system begins tomorrow afternoon and peaks tomorrow night
through early Monday morning. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area
under the Warning through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, expect to see periods of rain
mixed with freezing rain/drizzle up north that will eventually transition
to snow, and expect to see periods of rain transitioning to rain mixed
with freezing rain/drizzle that eventually could transition to snow
down south...including the beaches. High resolution models coming in
are showing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow north (locally
higher amounts possible) with lower amounts as you get closer to the
coast. Further to the south, freezing rain accumulations may reach
a tenth to a quarter inch. If this happens, expect to see sporadic
power outages where the buildup occurs on powerlines and/or trees.
Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if
not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for
those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Monday`s high temperatures
will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the
20s south and coast. A Hard Freeze Watch and a Wind Chill Watch begin
at 6 PM Monday for the entire area, and they will likely need to be
upgraded to a Warning.

You only have about one day left to prepare for this potentially historic
winter event! 42

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

While the first round of winter precipitation comes to an end on
Monday afternoon, the other dangerous hazard going into the
overnight hours will be the extremely dangerous low temperatures. On
Tuesday morning, lows will be near zero in our northern counties,
around 10-15 degrees near Houston and in the upper-teens/lower 20s
along the coast. None of the winter precipitation will melt, so
travel conditions will be extremely hazardous through at least
Tuesday afternoon. This arctic air will be very frigid, and those
without the proper attire will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors
for an extended period of time. For Tuesday, areas north of I-10
will likely remain below freezing even into the afternoon hours, so
any winter precipitation that has previously fallen will remain and
so will the hazardous travel conditions. South of I-10, temperatures
will make it into the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s along the
coast.

A surface coastal low begins to develop late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. This will bring another round of precipitation to
the area throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
Model guidance is still iffy on the temperatures as far as the
freezing line goes. There is consistency that the initial surge of
moisture comes early on Wednesday when our northern counties will
still be below freezing. Forecast soundings support a freezing
rain/sleet mix initially for this area. Temperatures expected to
rise above freezing in the afternoon hours, so a transition over to
rain is anticipated during this timeframe. As far as the Wednesday
temperatures go, it`ll be close (talking a 1-2 degree difference)
for our far northern counties on if they get above freezing. GFS and
Euro are in agreement on a transition back to freezing rain going
into Wednesday night for our northern counties as temperatures begin
to fall, followed by a transition to snow on early Thursday morning
as the precipitation finally comes to an end. Overnight temperatures
for Wednesday will drop below freezing once again for most of the
area (the exception being along the coast and our far southeastern
locations). With ground temperatures likely not recovering enough,
we could have another period of hazardous travel conditions for
Wednesday night/Thursday.

This may sound like a broken record, but high temperatures on
Thursday are likely to remain below freezing once again for our
northern counties. It is a very real possibility that our northern
locations may not reach above 32 degrees until Friday. Further to
south, temperatures will make it into the upper 30s/low 40s. The
somewhat good news is that high pressure will be moving in from the
west, so we`ll see clearing skies and an end to the winter
precipitation. The mostly clear skies combined with continued CAA
with northerly winds flowing over the ice that will still be in
place to the north means we`re expecting another hard freeze for
Thursday night with temperatures down into the teens up north and in
the 20s near the Houston metro area and south. High pressure moves
off to the east on Friday and puts us into a southerly flow.
Temperatures will FINALLY get out of the 30s as we see high
temperatures back into the 40s/50s which seems rather warm in
comparison. Southerly flow continues into Saturday where we will
likely see temperatures rise into the 60s. How`s that for a
temperature swing? 26

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts near 30 knots continue to
persist. SCA will remain in place for all the waters through
tomorrow night as these conditions will continue to persist. Heading
into Sunday, winds will become northeasterly as a coastal low begins
to develop in the western Gulf. Wind speeds will increase to 30-35
knots with gusts over 40 knots in the timeframe of Sunday
night/Monday morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for this time period
as a result. Additionally, seas will build up to 12-13 feet offshore
and 7-8 feet nearshore. As the low pushes off to the east, strong
offshore flow returns in its wake and seas will begin to decrease
throughout the day on Monday. Another potential hazard for this
event will be freezing spray with the prolonged period of freezing
temperatures. Wind speeds will start to come down on Tuesday morning
as well. Another coastal low will spin up on Wednesday morning and
bring another period of SCA conditions as offshore winds of 20-25
knots return. 26

Channel 11 not on board with the temp assessment. They still have Houston not getting back to above freezing until Friday afternoon.

[Dls2010r]

Blake is super active in here. I’m gonna listen to what there saying.

[Scott747]

Nope..I just didn't know if they went inland so many miles or what determined it

I live in Angleton and have always considered us inland.
[/quote]

While technically Angleton is considered 'inland' it isn't by much, and most people don't realize how close it is to Christmas and West Bay.

Getting surge across 2004 down by 543 isn't uncommon in the right setup. Surge in Carla made it to the fairgrounds.

[DoctorMu]

Know team still bullish for the next storm on wed

Blake has been consistent for 2 days. The models and now casting have been inching closer to his forecast.

We have not been above freezing in 2 days. I was out taking care of the outdoor faucets. My rain gauge was frozen. lol

[Cpv17]

Never thought I would see ~ almost the entire state under a winter storm warning at one time. Incredible!

It’s surreal. I still can’t believe it. I’ve spent my entire life waiting for a moment like this.

[Cpv17]

Im in katy, could I see accumulating snow?

I’d say Katy could be in the 4-6” zone.

[txsnowmaker]

Channel 11 says 100% chance of heavy snow on Monday for Houston. More snow Wednesday/Thursday. Says for Houston to expect near-blizzard conditions on Monday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KHOUBlake11/ ... 1593731077

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 7878777834

[dac]

Me too! Lifetime event for sure!

[TexasMetBlake]

Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models are busting and looking back at 89 and 1899 and comparing and contrasting. Also, sometimes we forget to just go outside and look. The artic air has a sharpness to it. It just feels brutal. So through pattern recognition, models busting and looking upstream, we've determined that we'll likely not only make a run at the all-time record low max but also at the all-time record low. We're likely to have a tremendous amount of ice and snow on the ground. Couple that with a clearing sky (Even if not totally clear) and you have the recipe for a wipeout of records. I'm not saying its likely but certainly possible. This is historic. I never thought I'd use the word 'blizzard' on tv to describe our weather on Monday but that's exactly what's going to happen. It's history. We're lucky enough to experience something that other up and coming meteorologist and weather enthusiasts will look back on a hundred years from now and wonder what it must of been like as we do now about 1895 and 1899. Well, we're about to find out.

Oh, the other reason we have temps below freezing Wednesday into Thursday is because we believe, at least for now, that the amount of ice and snow on the ground will not melt a single bit on Tuesday which will throw off the temperature forecast in the models even more than it already is. Couple that with increasing clouds and a developing storm system, we believe we're in for another round of snow and ice by Wednesday. It could change but that's our thinking right now.

[TexasBreeze]

Never thought I would see ~ almost the entire state under a winter storm warning at one time. Incredible!

It’s surreal. I still can’t believe it. I’ve spent my entire life waiting for a moment like this.

I have screenshots of these nws maps, model extremes and forecasts just to look back on in the future!

[txsnowmaker]

I cannot wait.

[Sloth]

Hey y'all!

I've been a lurker here for years now, but I want to make an account to show my gratitude on how much y'all work to give us the best predictions for this historic storm that's waiting to unfold here.

I live near the Spring Branch area and I'm excited to be alive in what could be the biggest winter storm the Houston metro has seen in more than a century!

[Andrew]

Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models are busting and looking back at 89 and 1899 and comparing and contrasting. Also, sometimes we forget to just go outside and look. The artic air has a sharpness to it. It just feels brutal. So through pattern recognition, models busting and looking upstream, we've determined that we'll likely not only make a run at the all-time record low max but also at the all-time record low. We're likely to have a tremendous amount of ice and snow on the ground. Couple that with a clearing sky (Even if not totally clear) and you have the recipe for a wipeout of records. I'm not saying its likely but certainly possible. This is historic. I never thought I'd use the word 'blizzard' on tv to describe our weather on Monday but that's exactly what's going to happen. It's history. We're lucky enough to experience something that other up and coming meteorologist and weather enthusiasts will look back on a hundred years from now and wonder what it must of been like as we do now about 1895 and 1899. Well, we're about to find out.

Oh, the other reason we have temps below freezing Wednesday into Thursday is because we believe, at least for now, that the amount of ice and snow on the ground will not melt a single bit on Tuesday which will throw off the temperature forecast in the models even more than it already is. Couple that with increasing clouds and a developing storm system, we believe we're in for another round of snow and ice by Wednesday. It could change but that's our thinking right now.

Thanks for all of y'alls great forecasting! Tell everyone thanks from the KHOU weather forum

[Andrew]

Hey y'all!

I've been a lurker here for years now, but I want to make an account to show my gratitude on how much y'all work to give us the best predictions for this historic storm that's waiting to unfold here.

I live near the Spring Branch area and I'm excited to be alive in what could be the biggest winter storm the Houston metro has seen in more than a century!

Hey sloth, thanks for joining the forum. I agree we have a great number of knowledgeable people here and I hope you stick around. Stay warm!