February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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KHOU BLake wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:56 pm Thanks for the thumbs up, y'all but it really is a team effort. David, Addison, Chita and I have been pouring over every model and every scenario. We determined a few days ago that the models just have no idea. So we're using sensible meteorology; looking up stream and watching how bad the models are busting and looking back at 89 and 1899 and comparing and contrasting. Also, sometimes we forget to just go outside and look. The artic air has a sharpness to it. It just feels brutal. So through pattern recognition, models busting and looking upstream, we've determined that we'll likely not only make a run at the all-time record low max but also at the all-time record low. We're likely to have a tremendous amount of ice and snow on the ground. Couple that with a clearing sky (Even if not totally clear) and you have the recipe for a wipeout of records. I'm not saying its likely but certainly possible. This is historic. I never thought I'd use the word 'blizzard' on tv to describe our weather on Monday but that's exactly what's going to happen. It's history. We're lucky enough to experience something that other up and coming meteorologist and weather enthusiasts will look back on a hundred years from now and wonder what it must of been like as we do now about 1895 and 1899. Well, we're about to find out.

Oh, the other reason we have temps below freezing Wednesday into Thursday is because we believe, at least for now, that the amount of ice and snow on the ground will not melt a single bit on Tuesday which will throw off the temperature forecast in the models even more than it already is. Couple that with increasing clouds and a developing storm system, we believe we're in for another round of snow and ice by Wednesday. It could change but that's our thinking right now.
iS THE WORST OF THIS NORTH AND WEST OF US
WHAT ABOUT THE GALVESTON BAY AREA?
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Katdaddy
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An epic Winter event for SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Its been awhile since 1983 and 1989. I am ready for an epic Winter Feb event so lets get this Winter party started.
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srainhoutx
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Jeff Lindner
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BRUTAL COLD! Forecast temperatures for Tuesday AM. I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather precautions to attempt to mitigate widespread infrastructure damage. Hazards and challenges will be prolonged due to cold and ice/snow #houwx #txwx
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:45 pm Jeff Lindner
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BRUTAL COLD! Forecast temperatures for Tuesday AM. I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather precautions to attempt to mitigate widespread infrastructure damage. Hazards and challenges will be prolonged due to cold and ice/snow #houwx #txwx
Holy ****! 2°F in Harris Co.
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DoctorMu
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In 1899 the Brazos River froze down to Waco.

6-12" potential between Bryan and Houston on Euro, GFS, UK. TWC and NWS are leaning to more snow starting earlier. Fingers crossed.
dp6
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Hi, I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?
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dp6 wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:02 pm Hi, I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?
No evacuations are needed. Just hunker down and have a plan if you lose electricity.
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snowman65
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Golden triangle still looking at more ice than snow next week?
Kingwood36
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I'm ready for some excitement
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nlosrgr8
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Do y’all think it will be ok to drive to NRG tomorrow to get my vaccination at 12:30
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:56 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:45 pm Jeff Lindner
@JeffLindner1
·
46s
BRUTAL COLD! Forecast temperatures for Tuesday AM. I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather precautions to attempt to mitigate widespread infrastructure damage. Hazards and challenges will be prolonged due to cold and ice/snow #houwx #txwx
Holy ****! 2°F in Harris Co.
More like you up in B/CS. That outline is the CWA (took me a second too).

My high today was 42 after a predicted high of 36. Already back down to 36 and the dew point is dropping
Last edited by jasons2k on Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
TexasMetBlake
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I'm seeing 4 populate on my GFS model for IAH. That's enough for an all-time record low. If we have 6-10 inches of snow on the ground and a clearing sky, why not?
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Texaspirate11
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IF anyone knows anyone who is Deaf this is great information to pass along

https://youtu.be/LrAKZlgUmeY
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DoctorMu
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Katdaddy wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:44 pm An epic Winter event for SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Its been awhile since 1983 and 1989. I am ready for an epic Winter Feb event so lets get this Winter party started.
Just another boring TropiKal La Nina winter. 8-)
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tireman4
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Live from swim meet ..do you think the NWS estimates are underestimated on accumulations?
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:47 pm
Katdaddy wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:44 pm An epic Winter event for SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Its been awhile since 1983 and 1989. I am ready for an epic Winter Feb event so lets get this Winter party started.
Just another boring TropiKal La Nina winter. 8-)
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donald
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i think blake is dr neil's grandson. he is that good
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I just purchased the ACU RITE 5-in-1 WI-FI home weather station from Lowe’s. Hope it’s a good one!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:26 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:56 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:45 pm Jeff Lindner
@JeffLindner1
·
46s
BRUTAL COLD! Forecast temperatures for Tuesday AM. I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather precautions to attempt to mitigate widespread infrastructure damage. Hazards and challenges will be prolonged due to cold and ice/snow #houwx #txwx
Holy ****! 2°F in Harris Co.
More like you up in B/CS. That outline is the CWA (took me a second too).

My high today was 42 after a predicted high of 36. Already back down to 36 and the dew point is dropping
30°F, 25°DP column will fingers crossed cool quickly once precip starts. Haven't been above freezing since Thursday afternoon.
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Holy moly check out the 00z HRRR model!
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