February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:09 pm Well I just went outside to shut the water back on and my backflow is cracked, right above the shutoff valve, even though I drained it. The bonnet is intact. I think some water must have gotten trapped in the ball valve itself and when it froze it cracked the brass. The good news is because of the location of the crack, it's not leaking more than a tiny drip, so at least I can run water again. But when it warms up now I have to buy another backflow and install it.

This cold snap officially sucks now. It's been an exhausting few days and now I have beds and beds of dead plants to dig up. It all adds up in the wallet too. I'm so over it already.
Greenhouse? I knew quite a few families and businesses in Gainesville, Ocala, etc. with greenhouses. The ground stays warm underneath even with this mega cold snap. We've been below freezing since Friday.

Fingers crossed re: sprinkler system. I dug out the control valves on Saturday, and after assessing ground temp and water at 55°F, that the only thing I could do by shutting off and evacuating each zone without positive pressure behind it was to bring more water that could freeze in the heads...so I counted on ice, sleet, and snow acting as insulation. Fingers crossed.


My best to all out there, especially those without power! We're still in rolling blackout conditions.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:45 pm A little blue painter’s tape on the door seams goes a long way...
Good Tip. I put in new weather stripping in the Fall. Huge difference. I kept the door to the attic open and insulated the garage door to the outside with blankets and towels - kept the attic temp above freezing except for last night. Dripping and running water we're enough. Feel blessed and lucky about that.
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don
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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...DANGEROUS ICE STORM EXPECTED TO CREATE LIFE THREATENING
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

1258 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...An approaching low pressure system tonight through
tomorrow morning will bring a period of dangerous and
potentially destructive freezing rain across the region with ice
accumulation anticipated. Amounts are expected to range from a
trace to a tenth of an inch along and around the Highway 59
corridor with higher amounts expanding further northward. The
highest totals from two tenths of an inch to in excess of one
half inch will be to the north of a line from Bryan/College
Station to Huntsville to Groveton. Some locations could see
isolated higher amounts. These would be devastating amounts of
ice with the potential to create additional power outages.


* WHERE...Inland areas of Southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Tonight through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Icy conditions will worsen quickly across the region
tonight with the freezing rain. Very dangerous driving
conditions from icy roads are expected. Travel should be
avoided. Vegetation and powerlines will become coated with ice
and as the ice accumulates will lead to breaking tree limbs and
power lines. The power outages already present in many locations
could well worsen. Even though some areas may thaw out briefly
the potential for refreeze will be high Wednesday night with
another cold front bringing subfreezing temperatures back across
the region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice are
expected or occurring.

Travel is expected to become impossible across northern portions
of the area.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.
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srainhoutx
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Cold weather looks to continue for a while longer.
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davidiowx
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Looks like HRRR has some sleet/snow coming through on the back end Thursday morning. That would be quite interesting..
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don
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...Significant and dangerous ice storm tonight and Wednesday for portions
of Southeast Texas...

...Travel is expected to become impossible across northern portions
of the area...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Weather conditions will be deteriorating tonight as low pressure
develops south of the Matagorda Bay area. As this low moves into
our coastal waters overnight and on through the waters Wednesday
morning, light precipitation will develop and spread inland while
shortwaves from the upper trof to our west scrape across the northern
parts of our area. Some icing could develop this evening where
precipitation falls near areas around freezing. The real mess looks
to begin to develop after midnight as the freezing line moves slowly
inland. Expecting increasing precipitation coverage during the
overnight through morning hours with significant icing possible
the further north you go. After looking at area soundings and model
trends, it still looks like locations north of Highway 105 will have
the greatest potential for the highest ice accumulation totals of
around 1/4 inch or higher. If this occurs, there could be devastating
impacts to structures, powerlines and agriculture. Of course, driving
should not occur - Stay home! Even areas south of Highway 105 to the
I-10 corridor will be susceptible to icing with potential totals of
around 1/10 to 1/4 inch (1/10 closer to I-10 and 1/4 closer to Highway
105). Again, the safety risk is too great to get on the roads - Stay
home! Improving conditions do not look to occur until late tomorrow
morning or early tomorrow afternoon when activity starts to come to
an end from west to east. With temperatures not expected to rise much
above freezing tomorrow afternoon (especially up north), any freezing
ice that has accumulated will be sticking around, and any melted ice
will freeze over again tomorrow night through Thursday morning with
temperatures in the 20s/30s.

Hang in there...warmer temperatures are coming! 42


&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Residual moisture in the wake of the departing surface low/cold
front may result in some lingering wintry precipitation heading into
Thursday morning, with light snow showers/sleet/ice pellets a
possibility. That being said, impacts from this spotty precipitation
are likely to be minor in comparison to the weather we anticipate
impacting the area in the immediate term. Behind the departing
system, northerly winds will result in another frigid day across SE
TX, with highs in the mid-30s inland to low 40s near the coast and
widespread overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Actions to
protect people, pets, plants, and pipes from the persistent extreme
cold should be continued during this time.

Yet another unseasonably cold day, though a drier one, is in store
on friday as high pressure remains dominant over the South Central
CONUS. However, as this surface high pushes eastward as we reach
Saturday, a long-awaited warming trend will begin as we finally see
the re-emergence of an onshore flow pattern. As a result, highs on
Saturday break into the 50s while on Sunday temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s at most locations.

Increasing moisture upon the redevelopment of southerly winds will
push total PWs back towards the vicinity of 1.0 in on Sunday
afternoon. Our next chance at precipitation (thankfully, it looks
like purely a rain event this time) will come on late Sunday/early
Monday as a surface cold front traverses the area and produces
scattered showers. The surge of cold air behind this departing
boundary will be comparatively weaker and far less persistent, with
lows not reaching below freezing in its wake on Monday night and
highs returning to the upper 60s/mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon.

Cady
Cpv17
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Channel 13 has a high of 38 for tomorrow. Don’t see much of a problem with ice if that happens. At least not during the day.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Maybe for 10 and southward. I have a bad feeling about tonight for us.

I love sleet and snow. Freezing rain is worthless.

I hope I get several hours of sleet instead of frz rain.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:18 pm Maybe for 10 and southward. I have a bad feeling about tonight for us.

I love sleet and snow. Freezing rain is worthless.

I hope I get several hours of sleet instead of frz rain.
If there’s clouds and rain around then I doubt it’ll get that high.
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jasons2k
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The HRRR has a very sharp gradient. It all depends on where the freeze line sets up. My dew point is still 19 - I think that will be a factor as precip starts to fall, the temp should drop.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:21 pm The HRRR has a very sharp gradient. It all depends on where the freeze line sets up. My dew point is still 19 - I think that will be a factor as precip starts to fall, the temp should drop.
You and I are going to get it. 59 may not be too bad.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday evening weather briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm Warning in effect along and north of US 59 through tonight

Cold temperatures especially at night will continue to result in infrastructure and human hardships

Hard freeze likely Friday morning

Discussion:

Coastal low is forming south of Matagorda Bay and will progress NE across our coastal waters tonight into Wednesday. This will result in a quick return of moisture into the slowly modifying arctic cold dome over the region. Current dewpoints remain very low across the region and with surface temperatures in the low to mid 30’s, as light drizzle and rainfall begins to fall, temperatures will fall and dewpoints will rise. This will result in the freezing line along and north of a line from roughly Matagorda Bay to Wharton to Pearland to Winnie. During the night this freezing line will begin to move northward slowly as warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico attempts to move inland. How far north this freezing line progresses is important as to what areas receive freezing rain and ice accumulation and what areas see plain rain.

Current thinking is that the freezing line will slowly progress northward through the morning hours on Wednesday with freezing rain and ice transitioning to rain. Expect the greatest ice accumulations to be found along and north of US 59/I-10 where temperatures will remain colder for the longest period of time.

Minor ice accumulations will be possible generally south of US 59 with accumulations of .10 to .25 of an inch generally north of US 59. Isolated amounts of .25-.50 will be possible mainly far to the north of Houston where a devastating ice storm is looking likely.

These ice accumulations will likely result in some tree damage and power line damage over the region and hamper efforts to restore power generation.

Temperatures on Wednesday after mid to late morning will rise above freezing and any ice should begin to melt. Temperatures will fall below freezing again Wednesday night and Thursday morning and any water left on roadways will likely freeze again.

One final disturbance will cross the area early Thursday and there may be some light precipitation and will need to keep an eye on this feature on the next 24 hours. As this disturbance passes, another shot of cold arctic air will spread into the region resulting in another night of very cold temperatures on Friday morning where temperatures will likely fall into the upper 10’s to mid-20’s yet again over the area.

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srainhoutx
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Boil Water Notice issued for Pasadena due to pressure issues with the City of Houston Water Purification Plant on Genoa Redbluff.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:35 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:21 pm The HRRR has a very sharp gradient. It all depends on where the freeze line sets up. My dew point is still 19 - I think that will be a factor as precip starts to fall, the temp should drop.
You and I are going to get it. 59 may not be too bad.
Several runs had trended a tad north, with a sharper gradient. The latest run had the sharp gradient, but it has nudged back south again. Lots of ice coming.
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don
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Most of the system is expected to move out by late morning,so this is mainly an overnight event,by the time we reach our high tomorrow the system will be out of here. And any ice accumulations should melt.The problem is more about how long does it take for the freezing line to move north overnight as warm air advection kicks in from the low.For northern counties the freezing line may never reach them unfortunately before the rainfall ends.While at this time for the central counties models show the temperatures getting above freezing once the heaviest rain starts,hopefully that happens or there will be significant accumulations of ice even for the central counties.
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jasons2k
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It's gonna be close. One of those situations where one-degree of difference will be huge, and within a matter of miles it will go from relatively normal to a total mess. The trend in the dewpoint is the key. That dewpoint temp tonight will be critical.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:05 pm It's gonna be close. One of those situations where one-degree of difference will be huge, and within a matter of miles it will go from relatively normal to a total mess. The trend in the dewpoint is the key. That dewpoint temp tonight will be critical.
Yep, that gradient I think will set up around Katy to Jersey Village to Humble.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:09 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:05 pm It's gonna be close. One of those situations where one-degree of difference will be huge, and within a matter of miles it will go from relatively normal to a total mess. The trend in the dewpoint is the key. That dewpoint temp tonight will be critical.
Yep, that gradient I think will set up around Katy to Jersey Village to Humble.
I think that's a good call...and the difference on either side will be night and day.
jerryh421
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What do we think of the last disturbance coming through? Would that be more of sleet/snow?
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jasons2k
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jerryh421 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:16 pm What do we think of the last disturbance coming through? Would that be more of sleet/snow?
Yes, but not much, a parting shot to end the winter.
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