February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
danmaloney
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All I can say is, we need the bitter cold and frozen precipitation. I'm tired of the cold air always going east.
Cpv17
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Well my confidence has definitely gone up now for an Artic outbreak. The GFS, CMC, and Euro are all fairly similar for next week. Unanimous agreement there. The Euro is a few degrees warmer is about the only difference.
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djmike
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Todays runs certainly raised an eyebrow for next week, but we shall see what transpires in the upcoming days.
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Cpv17
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The CPC is starting to buy in a little more:

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They still aren’t completely sold yet. Probably because the Euro hasn’t really bought in yet. It’s about 15 degrees warmer than the GFS. The Euro is probably most likely to happen. It has the coldest air well north and east of Texas as usual lol it’s still plenty cold for Texas though but nothing crazy.
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sambucol
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What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
danmaloney
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look at that model,,,,,it wants so badly to shove the cold air east.i dont buy it. the greenland blocking should prevent that. that model is smokng crack
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:31 pm What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
If the 12z GFS and 12z CMC verifies then yes. If the 12z Euro verifies then no.
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sambucol
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I need to change the pipe insulation for the exposed pipes. I'll get ahead of the rush and get that done tomorrow.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:03 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:53 am I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol
Were you here in the late 90s for the crippling ice storm? You wouldn't say that if you were.
haha Remember that one. I was on the roads mostly alone, because few here had driven on that much ice - 1/2 to 1 inch thick!
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:39 pm
sambucol wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:31 pm What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
If the 12z GFS and 12z CMC verifies then yes. If the 12z Euro verifies then no.
Canadian has 11°F here. Long ways away, but the cold air is ready to blow!
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:42 pm The CPC is starting to buy in a little more:

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They still aren’t completely sold yet. Probably because the Euro hasn’t really bought in yet. It’s about 15 degrees warmer than the GFS. The Euro is probably most likely to happen. It has the coldest air well north and east of Texas as usual lol it’s still plenty cold for Texas though but nothing crazy.
Even the Euro is almost buying it. Cold, well below freezing. Just not 10°F range.

GEPS ensemble seeing cold to arctic air from Feb 10-19.
Cpv17
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KHOU BLake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:46 pm With the NAO the most negative its been in 11 years causing some serious blocking over Greenland, it doesn't surprise me. The GFS has been hinting at an extreme arctic outbreak here and there over the last week. Last week, it was showing a low of 0 deg in College Station. Then it lost it.

Keep in mind that the 12z GFS is wild beyond imagination and something like that happens only two or three times per century. That's a 1983/89 event with three consecutive days with TMAX numbers in the mid 20s and TMins around 10 degrees. I'm not buying----yet. It has been over 30 years since we've seen that type of cold so maybe we're due?

For what its worth, the Euro also shows wintry weather at the same time the GFS does around 210 hours. Something to watch for sure but I can almost 100% guarantee you that the 12z GFS will not happen to that extreme -- likely not even close.
3 years ago we got down to 18° here in Wharton. This system could possibly be even stronger than that one so I’m not ruling temps in the teens out right now.
danmaloney
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CPV, dont let the cold air go east. it just cant happen.
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jasons2k
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sorry double post :mrgreen:
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, I have to look back, a couple of years ago I got down to either 17 or 19. Anyway, upper teens and a lot of queen palms got killed that year. Not all of them, but a lot. The date palms at Portofino plaza managed to survive that one though.
TexasMetBlake
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Looks like the 00z CMC has joined the Euro camp and has done away with the mega, 1062 mb high for a more reasonable 1046 high. That's much more believable although the CMC is still showing highs near freezing by Feb 11th. Just have to watch and wait. The 00z GFS appears to be following close behind.
TexasMetBlake
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I take that back. 00z GFS still has the 1062 high dropping into Montana at 224 hours and a 1058 high into CO and then 1048 into west Texas. Man, that's like ice age for Texas. It appears that the 00z GFS delays the high a bit as well. At 18z it had a 1057 high crossing into western ND around 6z on the 13th. the 00z GFS has a 1061 high further west and at the Montana/Canada line at 18z on the 13th.
TexasMetBlake
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Despite the stronger high on the 00z GFS, I was looking at a close up of the TMAX temps and yes, it'll be cold, but the bigger story for HOUSTON, not Texas, will be the long duration of high temps in the 40s it looks like with overnight lows down into the mid to upper 20s. I don't see anything remotely close to 1983 or 1989 -- per the 00z GFS. Subject to change of course.
Cpv17
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KHOU BLake wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:06 am Despite the stronger high on the 00z GFS, I was looking at a close up of the TMAX temps and yes, it'll be cold, but the bigger story for HOUSTON, not Texas, will be the long duration of high temps in the 40s it looks like with overnight lows down into the mid to upper 20s. I don't see anything remotely close to 1983 or 1989 -- per the 00z GFS. Subject to change of course.
If that high is as strong as you say it is then I’m pretty sure temps will be lower than that. No?
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
416 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...

Temperatures have been slowly warming since midnight with south winds
in place, and all of our reporting stations at 4 AM are in the 60s.
The winds will become a little more out of the SSW to SW as the day
progresses, and this flow will help to warm area temperatures this
afternoon close to 80 degrees out west (where some breaks in the cloud
cover could occur) and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere (where clouds
are expected to linger). The unusually warm day (only twice on record
dating back to 1890 has the City of Houston recorded a February 4th
high of 80 degrees or higher) will come to an end when the next cold
front moves across the area later this afternoon north, this evening
central and overnight along the coast. Low temperatures Friday morning
behind the front will range from the low to mid 40s inland to the low
50s along the coast. High temperatures on Friday could struggle to reach
60 degrees with cloud cover and spotty low rain chances potentially
lingering in place for a large part of the day.

42

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

Showers may linger offshore on Friday night as the surface cold
front remains stalled over the coastal waters, though chances for
additional rainfall remain at nearly zero aside from along the
immediate coast. With the dominant surface high gradually shifting
eastward on Friday night, an onshore flow will redevelop by Saturday
morning. As a deepening area of low pressure pushes eastward during
the day on Saturday, a second reinforcing cold front extending from
this feature will advance towards SE Texas and push through the area
during the overnight hours. With limited moisture availability (PWs
of 0.5 - 0.75 in), this second fropa should be a dry one, with the
resultant surge of cooler and drier air keeping overnight lows in
the 40s to lower 50s. A gradual warmup is expected heading into the
beginning of next week, as another rapid exit of surface high
pressure will allow for southerly flow to redevelop at the surface
while upper-level flow remains largely zonal in nature. By Monday,
we`ll be in for another round of spring-like temperatures with highs
reaching the mid-70s throughout most of the area.

The synoptic pattern over the central CONUS will be dominated by a
deepening lee cyclone by late Monday, with its associated cold
frontal boundary advancing towards SE TX during the day and reaching
the northern zones during the overnight hours. With total PWs ahead
of this stronger fropa surging back to around 1.0 in, the arrival of
the boundary should bring another round of scattered showers to the
area though significant accumulations are not expected.

Moderate to strong north winds in the wake of this frontal passage
will set the stage for a period of colder weather across SE TX. With
broad surface high pressure settling into the central CONUS through
the end of the week, highs will dip into the 50s on Wednesday and
upper 40s to near 50 on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will
border on freezing in some locations by Wednesday night, with the
northern half of the area experiencing lows in the 30s. As an
amplified longwave trough digs into northern Mexico during this
period, long term guidance shows the development of a coastal low
over the Western Gulf which could increase precipitation chances by
the end of next week as it pushes eastward should the pattern
materialize.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

Strengthening southerly winds and building seas can be expected
today. Patchy sea fog may develop late this afternoon in advance
of a cold front that will push off the coast late tonight.
Moderate northeast to east winds and elevated seas behind this
front can be expected into the weekend as a coastal trough
develops offshore. Light to moderate southeast winds return to
the area at the end of the weekend and continue into the start
of next week. The next cold front can be expected to move through
the coastal waters on Tuesday with moderate to strong north to
northeast winds developing in its wake.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...

High temperature records for today (all established in 1957) are...
.82 degrees at CLL
.81 degrees at IAH
.81 degrees at HOU
.74 degrees at GLS

42

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings can be expected today ahead of the next cold front.
Some SHRA development is possible with the front as it moves through
the area this afternoon and off the coast tonight. Gusty S to SW winds
this morning will weaken later this afternoon as the front approaches.
Then, winds will shift to the N and NE behind the front. Clouds will
be slow to exit the area with the potential for MVFR ceilings along
with some -SHRA/-RA to linger into tonight through Friday morning.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 44 63 42 67 / 10 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 48 63 46 67 / 20 20 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 53 59 54 65 / 20 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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