February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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12z GFS seems to be slowly getting onboard and has a winter storm late next week over North, Central, and Southeast Texas.Still a long ways out though... The CMC is also really cold with the High coming straight down into the southern plains.
Cpv17
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The 12z GFS is nuts:

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Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out :roll:

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.
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srainhoutx
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Be careful with those TT snowfall graphics. Most of what falls on the GFS is ice.
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kyzsl51
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:27 am The 12z GFS is nuts:

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Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out :roll:

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.
Even stronger than what models showed back in in January of 2018 initially? I know that one really strong
Kingwood36
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I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol
Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:50 am Be careful with those TT snowfall graphics. Most of what falls on the GFS is ice.
Yes sir that’s very true. I’m not even concerned about the precip part right now. I’ve learned over the years that you should always worry about the temps first before the precip. You gotta have the correct temps to begin with before you can even worry about frozen precip and with this possible event still over a week out, models will change quite a bit regarding the precip part.
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:53 am I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol
Were you here in the late 90s for the crippling ice storm? You wouldn't say that if you were.
Cpv17
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kyzsl51 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:27 am The 12z GFS is nuts:

Image

Image

Too bad it’s 8 to 11 days out :roll:

I honestly think this is the best looking model run of the GFS I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching models consistently for a good 6 or 7 years now.
Even stronger than what models showed back in in January of 2018 initially? I know that one really strong
I believe so. The biggest reason it’s showing such significant cold is because it has a 1060mb+ Artic high sitting right above Montana. With that strong of a high, those temps could definitely come to fruition but I wouldn’t worry too much about it yet. Now if the models are still showing it by this weekend, then I’d start paying much more closer attention to it.
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jasons2k
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I hope it doesn’t get that cold, geeze. It would wipe-out a lot of plants and freeze sprinkler systems, etc. Not fun.
TexasMetBlake
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With the NAO the most negative its been in 11 years causing some serious blocking over Greenland, it doesn't surprise me. The GFS has been hinting at an extreme arctic outbreak here and there over the last week. Last week, it was showing a low of 0 deg in College Station. Then it lost it.

Keep in mind that the 12z GFS is wild beyond imagination and something like that happens only two or three times per century. That's a 1983/89 event with three consecutive days with TMAX numbers in the mid 20s and TMins around 10 degrees. I'm not buying----yet. It has been over 30 years since we've seen that type of cold so maybe we're due?

For what its worth, the Euro also shows wintry weather at the same time the GFS does around 210 hours. Something to watch for sure but I can almost 100% guarantee you that the 12z GFS will not happen to that extreme -- likely not even close.
danmaloney
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All I can say is, we need the bitter cold and frozen precipitation. I'm tired of the cold air always going east.
Cpv17
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Well my confidence has definitely gone up now for an Artic outbreak. The GFS, CMC, and Euro are all fairly similar for next week. Unanimous agreement there. The Euro is a few degrees warmer is about the only difference.
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djmike
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Todays runs certainly raised an eyebrow for next week, but we shall see what transpires in the upcoming days.
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Cpv17
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The CPC is starting to buy in a little more:

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They still aren’t completely sold yet. Probably because the Euro hasn’t really bought in yet. It’s about 15 degrees warmer than the GFS. The Euro is probably most likely to happen. It has the coldest air well north and east of Texas as usual lol it’s still plenty cold for Texas though but nothing crazy.
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sambucol
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What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
danmaloney
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look at that model,,,,,it wants so badly to shove the cold air east.i dont buy it. the greenland blocking should prevent that. that model is smokng crack
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:31 pm What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
If the 12z GFS and 12z CMC verifies then yes. If the 12z Euro verifies then no.
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sambucol
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I need to change the pipe insulation for the exposed pipes. I'll get ahead of the rush and get that done tomorrow.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:03 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:53 am I'll take ice...not much but as long as it's frozen ill take it lol
Were you here in the late 90s for the crippling ice storm? You wouldn't say that if you were.
haha Remember that one. I was on the roads mostly alone, because few here had driven on that much ice - 1/2 to 1 inch thick!
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:39 pm
sambucol wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:31 pm What are the high and low temps we might have in SETX? Pipebusting temps?
If the 12z GFS and 12z CMC verifies then yes. If the 12z Euro verifies then no.
Canadian has 11°F here. Long ways away, but the cold air is ready to blow!
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