February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
danmaloney
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I agree,kingwood. Here in Houston, we have a very limited amount of time for even a chance of cold air. On this board, there is always talk of,,,in the next few weeks,14,days, the ssw takes 3 weeks to manifest,,,,etc. Houston being so fart south doesnt cant spare weeks to wait for cold air. It has to happen fast. 3 more weeks,,is about it.
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don
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Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:20 am Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.
Why’s the cold wanting to slide to the east so much instead of heading south? Lack of blocking over Greenland or what?
danmaloney
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I'm getting tired of the these glancing blows and the cold air sliding east. I just dont get it
Cpv17
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danmaloney wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:06 pm I'm getting tired of the these glancing blows and the cold air sliding east. I just dont get it
Me and you both. Pretty aggravating but I’m still hoping it will go more towards us.
danmaloney
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Prayer and hope are the only things we have.
redneckweather
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Welcome to Southeast, Tx where 99.98% of the time we get glancing blows of arctic air during the winter time.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:45 am
don wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:20 am Looks like early next week may be pretty wet around here.If there will be more than just rain down here remains to be seen as there may be too much warm nosing for anything frozen.But if you want decent rain models are starting to look good.
Why’s the cold wanting to slide to the east so much instead of heading south? Lack of blocking over Greenland or what?
I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.
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Belmer
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don wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:53 pm I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.
That is partly correct, yes. I'm not going to be able to post for a little while as I have a busy schedule coming up. So thought I would post some pretty pictures to maybe help explain what the GFS is showing and why the first batch of arctic air will slide more to our east.

As don mentioned, the ridging over the Pacific has some to do with it. To get the first batch of arctic air projected more toward our area, you'd like to see a stronger ridge poking more into Alaska. The GFS has the ridge more over the Pacific northwest which essentially scoots the coldest air to our east, giving us just a glancing blow.

1. GFS 500mb 06z Feb 6
1. GFS 500mb 06z Feb 6

Follow this through for about 48 hours, the EPO phases out to more neutral. This is in forecast from the ensembles as well.
2. GFS 500mb 00z Feb 8
2. GFS 500mb 00z Feb 8

Hence, barney colors for the Mid-West and Northeast.
3. GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 8
3. GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 8

Now at the end of the 12z GFS, it shows EPO going negative again, with the AO remaining strongly negative with cold air building in Northwest Canada (our source region).
4. GFS 500mb 00z Feb 15
4. GFS 500mb 00z Feb 15

Notice very cold temp anomalies building where we would typically like to see the cold air build.
5. GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 15
5. GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 15

With the placement of the ridging in Alaska and a +/-NAO, this run would allow for the cold air to spill more toward the Rockies into TX.
6. GFS 500mb 12z Feb 17
6. GFS 500mb 12z Feb 17

So as a result, the first batch (#1) would slide our way while our source region reloads. Where #2 batch goes ???
7. GFS 850mb TA 12z Feb 17
7. GFS 850mb TA 12z Feb 17


This is one run of the GFS. I posted this mainly to show why it's unlikely we would get anything extreme next week as far as temperatures other than little below average for this time of year. If the 12z GFS were to be correct in lala land (which we all know it won't, 18z will likely have the opposite), then there would definitely be something to watch as we roll into the second half of the month. However, if you're looking for anything wintery fun (snow/sleet) on this particular run, then that would be a no-go as it would just be annoyingly dry and cold. With that said, moisture will work itself out and that's not something I really pay attention to until we are in the 5-7 day timeframe.


For those interested in reading and understanding more about the AO, NAO, PDO and PNA: this is an excellent link to read up on. Just click on the blue tabs and it will give detailed description along with graphical examples. It also will shows the ensemble forecast for each.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php
Blake
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danmaloney
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I'm still sick and tired of the " sliding east" of the cold air. The rotation of the earth,gravity, and air movement dictate by physics that the cold air should dive in a south direction in the northern hemisphere.
danmaloney
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even in mid summer,,,in the southern hemisphere . check this out.
Now South Pole

-29 °F
Snow flurries. Overcast.


Feels Like: -51 °F
Forecast: -24 / -26 °F
Wind: 9 mph ↑ from Northeast
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GBinGrimes
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Get.Rid.Of.The.Troll.Please.
danmaloney
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I am only posting weather related information and thoughts. Calling me a troll is not fair when i dont break any rules.
We all want the same thing,cold and snow.
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DoctorMu
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Canadian/GEM is a true believer again. We're a ways from the Feb 8-10 window, but they are bringing the cold and wet again. There's far more cold air poised that our January 10 snow miracle here in CS. Euro is sniffing. GFS isn't buying, but I take that as good news considering the GFS miserable record this winter.

We're still running 2-3°F colder than last winter so far.

Image
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:07 pm Canadian/GEM is a true believer again. We're a ways from the Feb 8-10 window, but they are bringing the cold and wet again. There's far more cold air poised that our January 10 snow miracle here in CS. Euro is sniffing. GFS isn't buying, but I take that as good news considering the GFS miserable record this winter.

We're still running 2-3°F colder than last winter so far.

Image
That’s freaking beautiful!!
cperk
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Belmer wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:38 pm
don wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:53 pm I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska.
That is partly correct, yes. I'm not going to be able to post for a little while as I have a busy schedule coming up. So thought I would post some pretty pictures to maybe help explain what the GFS is showing and why the first batch of arctic air will slide more to our east.

As don mentioned, the ridging over the Pacific has some to do with it. To get the first batch of arctic air projected more toward our area, you'd like to see a stronger ridge poking more into Alaska. The GFS has the ridge more over the Pacific northwest which essentially scoots the coldest air to our east, giving us just a glancing blow.

GFS 500mb 06z Feb 6.png



Follow this through for about 48 hours, the EPO phases out to more neutral. This is in forecast from the ensembles as well.

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 8.png


Hence, barney colors for the Mid-West and Northeast.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 8.png



Now at the end of the 12z GFS, it shows EPO going negative again, with the AO remaining strongly negative with cold air building in Northwest Canada (our source region).

GFS 500mb 00z Feb 15.png



Notice very cold temp anomalies building where we would typically like to see the cold air build.

GFS 850mb TA 00z Feb 15.png



With the placement of the ridging in Alaska and a +/-NAO, this run would allow for the cold air to spill more toward the Rockies into TX.

GFS 500mb 12z Feb 17.png



So as a result, the first batch (#1) would slide our way while our source region reloads. Where #2 batch goes ???

GFS 850mb TA 12z Feb 17.png



This is one run of the GFS. I posted this mainly to show why it's unlikely we would get anything extreme next week as far as temperatures other than little below average for this time of year. If the 12z GFS were to be correct in lala land (which we all know it won't, 18z will likely have the opposite), then there would definitely be something to watch as we roll into the second half of the month. However, if you're looking for anything wintery fun (snow/sleet) on this particular run, then that would be a no-go as it would just be annoyingly dry and cold. With that said, moisture will work itself out and that's not something I really pay attention to until we are in the 5-7 day timeframe.


For those interested in reading and understanding more about the AO, NAO, PDO and PNA: this is an excellent link to read up on. Just click on the blue tabs and it will give detailed description along with graphical examples. It also will shows the ensemble forecast for each.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php
Thanks this helps me understand whats going on.
danmaloney
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It is too warm in Houston even for this time of years. I have tomato plants sprouting. Even my garlic chives have grown throughout Jan.
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don
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FWIW 0z Globals have trended colder next week with the Euro showing 36+ hours of temperatures not getting out of the 30s across southeast Texas, with a light wintry mix late next week.
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djmike
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I know its weatherbug BUT showing snow for Beaumont Thurs Fri and Sat next week! We shall see. Im sure it will dwindle closer we get. Lol
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Kingwood36
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djmike wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:01 am I know its weatherbug BUT showing snow for Beaumont Thurs Fri and Sat next week! We shall see. Im sure it will dwindle closer we get. Lol
Ya mine shows a 70% chance of wintery mix next friday..its a fun thought but it will be gone pretty quickly...those 10 forecast are good for a laugh 😆
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