MARCH 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:40 am
jasons2k wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:21 pm Uh oh. Comparing 2021 to 2011:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/06/weather/ ... index.html
Between that and the scorching summer that year, that's going to suck.
Would hate to see that. It would mean a dry Spring. The pine forest near Bastrop is only just beginning to recover.
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Ptarmigan
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:21 pm Uh oh. Comparing 2021 to 2011:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/06/weather/ ... index.html
We did not have a strong La Nina like in 2011. 1989 had a strong La Nina as well. The difference was the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was cooler in 1989 and warmer in 2011. It was during warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1989 and cool PDO in 2011.
Cromagnum
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Super windy yesterday and today.
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jasons2k
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Joe B. referenced Brooks Garner in his Twitter feed today.
Brooks hit the jackpot this time in Denver.
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don
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Looking at the global models it looks like next Wednesday may be our first chance of seeing severe weather locally for the season.
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jasons2k
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Chances for another freeze appear to be diminishing too.
txbear
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Looks like spring storm season is starting up. Saw a warned storm yesterday out near Childress that had 3 inch hail possible. Off with a bang, and tornado watch up already in the Panhandle. Could be an active one, but the rain will be welcomed.
Cpv17
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txbear wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:34 pm Looks like spring storm season is starting up. Saw a warned storm yesterday out near Childress that had 3 inch hail possible. Off with a bang, and tornado watch up already in the Panhandle. Could be an active one, but the rain will be welcomed.
I’m not really seeing much in the way of rainfall on the
models for southeast Texas. Maybe an inch on average for the next couple weeks, that’s about it.
Cromagnum
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I know it caused a lot of grief in the panhandle but boy did that system fizzle to nothing by the time it got to us.
txbear
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Yeah no joke. Was thinking the same thing. Panhandle got some very big early season action. Looked to have been one wedge tornado that went near Palo Duro, and saw reports of at least a few more touchdowns (not wedges specifically).

My comment on the active season wasn’t necessarily for this point in time (we’re just getting started, yes?) nor SE TX, specifically. State is hurting for rain, so the season as a whole could get feisty, but the rain is needed.
Cpv17
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The 12z Euro finally has a decent system coming through here next Tuesday but that’s 9 days out.
BlueJay
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Thick pea soup this morning!
Cromagnum
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Quite muggy and warm right now. Should be good thunderstorm fuel if anything gets going this week.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:11 pm Quite muggy and warm right now. Should be good thunderstorm fuel if anything gets going this week.
I think next week has more potential.
Cpv17
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Major tornado outbreak tomorrow for the Dixie Alley. Could be looking at a historical day.
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Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama.
Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of
which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind
gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are
possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the
afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Lower Mississippi Valley to Alabama...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over central NM moving east toward the TX Panhandle. This feature
will eject across OK into the Ozark Plateau by the end of the
period. Intense large-scale forcing for ascent is currently
spreading across the southern High Plains region where deep
convection is currently expanding in areal coverage along the dry
line/Pacific front as it encounters western edge of moisture plume.
This boundary will remain active leading into the start of the day1
period.

Strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread the lower MS
Valley/central Gulf States during the day as 80kt+ 500mb flow
overspreads increasingly moist/buoyant warm sector. Latest model
guidance suggests several LLJ segments will increase ahead of the
trough, each likely modulating bouts of organized severe
thunderstorm clusters/supercells. The primary synoptic low is
forecast to track across northeastern OK into southern MO.
Significant elevated convection will be noted north of the warm
front but ample surface-based buoyancy/shear south of the front
should prove favorable for supercells as one LLJ segment focuses
across AR into southeast MO ahead of this feature. At the same time,
a secondary LLJ will strengthen across MS during the day and become
the primary LLJ into the overnight hours over northwestern AL/middle
TN. This secondary LLJ appears to be responding to a mid-level speed
max that will translate across south-central TX into southern LA
during the late evening hours.

Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
into northwest AL.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/17/2021
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe weather event is expected to
continue into Thursday from southern Virginia southward into
Florida, and westward into portions of eastern Kentucky/eastern
Tennessee. Along with potential for widespread damaging winds and
hail, several tornadoes -- a few of them likely to be strong -- are
anticipated.

...Synopsis...
An upper low initially forecast over the Ozarks area is expected to
shift steadily eastward through the period, reaching the Mid South
by evening and then crossing the Appalachians and evolving into a
more open wave overnight. Meanwhile in the west, an eastern Pacific
upper low/trough should approach the West Coast overnight.

At the surface, a low initially progged over the southern Illinois
area will cross the Ohio Valley through the day. By evening, the
low should reside in the central Appalachians area, and then is
expected to elongate across the Mid Atlantic region overnight as
weak offshore low development commences. A cold front trailing from
the low -- bisecting the Mid South and extending south to the
western Florida Panhandle -- should clear the crest of the
Appalachians during the early evening, before continuing eastward to
move off the East Coast overnight. Meanwhile, a remnant damming
front will shift quickly northward as a warm front across the
Atlantic Coast states, allowing a warm sector to spread northward
into Virginia ahead of the advancing low.

...Eastern KY/TN east to the Chesapeake Bay, and south to FL...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in an elongated
zone of warm advection from Missouri east across the Ohio Valley
states and into the Mid Atlantic region, and more significantly --
from eastern Tennessee and possibly eastern Kentucky, southward
across western Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle. Ongoing/all-hazards severe risk is expected to accompany
the convection -- primarily across the northern/western Georgia
vicinity.

With time, continued northward moistening/theta-e advection ahead of
the approaching system will result in a broad warm sector east of
the Appalachian crest, and secondarily -- across parts of eastern
Kentucky and southern Ohio into West Virginia/western Virginia.
Though heating may be tempered into the afternoon in many areas due
to downstream cloud debris from ongoing convection, around 1000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE should become widespread across the warm sector.

The increasingly moist/unstable environment will support a
continuation of the ongoing storms within a loose band ahead of the
cold front, which will spread across Georgia and the Carolinas, and
eventually southern Virginia, with some potential for
isolated/cellular development ahead of this convective band. Cells
may also develop in the wake of an initial convective band northward
into western North Carolina, while storms also develop into the
afternoon west of the mountains into southern Ohio/western
Kentucky/west Virginia. The storms west of the mountains will
likely become locally severe, with hail and damaging winds the
primary risk, though a tornado or two would be possible.

Farther south and east -- into eastern Georgia and the Carolinas,
and spreading north into parts of southern Virginia, very strong
flow aloft, veering -- and increasing substantially in magnitude
with height through the lower troposphere -- will result in shear
quite favorable for supercells. Along with hail potential, the more
substantial risk will be from widespread damaging winds, as well as
tornadoes -- including possibility for a few strong/significant
tornadoes during the afternoon and into the early evening. Threat
will gradually taper from west to east, as the system shifts
eastward and the cold front eventually moves offshore.

..Goss.. 03/17/2021
unome
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Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Note: During early morning hours (approximately 6am Central time), the SPC will produce a multimedia briefing MP4 file shortly after the PWO issuance. Please check back momentarily for a link to this MP4 file on this page. Please note the briefing may be out of date 5 hours after its issuance and there will be no subsequent updates


Image


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021

...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the The lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Much of Mississippi
Eastern and northern Louisiana
Much of Alabama
Much of Arkansas
Southwest Tennessee
Extreme southern Missouri

* HAZARDS...
Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Thompson.. 03/17/2021
Cromagnum
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Dixie Alley seems worse than Tornado Alley lately.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:38 am Dixie Alley seems worse than Tornado Alley lately.
Yep. It’s not even close either imo. To me it’s been that way ever since that super outbreak in 2011.
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