MARCH 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txbear
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by txbear » Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:48 am

Thanks, jasons2k. Appreciate the context. A curious note is that the Panhandle and West Texas, etc also have the tradewinds blow out of the SW and W from the higher and drier elevations in Mexico and New Mexico as well (a lot more dry land to contend with).

But perhaps it has somewhat to do with a couple of things; 1) the boundaries between hot/dry and humid extend down the surface out there and are a bit more stark with less mixing and 2) the intensely higher humidity/dew points here suppress temps to the point of not being able to punch towers through the cap. Probably much more to do with the latter. My amateur postulation after having lived in both.

Yeah, definitely hoping for additional rain.

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jasons2k
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by jasons2k » Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:10 am

txbear wrote:
Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:48 am
Thanks, jasons2k. Appreciate the context. A curious note is that the Panhandle and West Texas, etc also have the tradewinds blow out of the SW and W from the higher and drier elevations in Mexico and New Mexico as well (a lot more dry land to contend with).

But perhaps it has somewhat to do with a couple of things; 1) the boundaries between hot/dry and humid extend down the surface out there and are a bit more stark with less mixing and 2) the intensely higher humidity/dew points here suppress temps to the point of not being able to punch towers through the cap. Probably much more to do with the latter. My amateur postulation after having lived in both.

Yeah, definitely hoping for additional rain.
Well, then we are getting into all sorts of subtleties that depend on the situation and we get into the actual meteorology.

I remember well - I took my first Met class at Texas Tech with Dr. Peterson. He said out there in Lubbock, as a general 'rule of thumb' in the springtime you needed a dew point of 50F or above for the environment to be conducive for thunderstorms. In short, what he was really saying is that if the dew point is above 50, you are going to be on the moist side of the dry line. But one of my biggest take-aways has been '50 -- only 50? Down in SE Texas you're gonna usually need mid 60's+ for any action.'

Why is that?

A big part of it is up there in the Panhandle and into OK, there is often a "triple point" centered around a low. The position of the low (to our NW) often means that flow into the low pressure, in the low and mid-layers, is from the southeast, off of the Gulf. It's relatively moist and unstable. All you need is some heating and/or a cold pocket to pass overhead and boom! You get the storms up there.

Keep in mind for as active as it gets up there in the Spring, they end-up with only 15-20" of rain for the year.

Down here, if the system is progressive, as the low moves across our longitude and passes to our north, the low-level and mid-level flow often shifts to the southwest. We become the victim of the cap and/or a pre-frontal trough with a SW wind shift. The position of that flow just depends on the trajectory of the system, whether or not it's positively or negatively-tilted on its approach, etc.

Speaking of the system tomorrow - my local NWS forecast has this through by 11am and they have lowered my rain chances. Any hopes of busting the cap seem to be dwindling.

txbear
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by txbear » Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:56 am

Definitely spot on with the triple-point. Any talk of that, and things always tend to get sporty in those parts. The shear and lift you can get around the triple point, or even just the dryline by itself, can really get things going. Dryline....now that's a term I haven't referenced in a long time.

No need to remind me of how actual little rainfall in total areas to the west of '35 really end up with; we had reservoirs drying up completely and water source scarcity was something else (still is, especially with the aquifers).

Great dialogue.

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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by unome » Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:23 am


Cromagnum
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:04 am

Cap firmly in place over us. Little to no rain expected with today's front.

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don
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by don » Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:57 am

Yep looks like only streamer showers today.Whats interesting is that the last 24 hours models have gotten a little more aggressive with next weeks system.This weekend into next week we could get some much needed rain as models are in pretty good agreement with two slow moving fronts next week.The first one comes this Sunday and stalls over the area as a coastal low develops and rides the front producing widespread rain.Models are not showing anything significant at the moment but even an inch or two would be nice, we'll see not getting my hopes up yet...

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jasons2k
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:04 am

0.00”

And to think several days back, today’s “midweek system” looked so promising. Lucy is hanging around...

txbear
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by txbear » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:47 am

Big ole' goose egg, thanks cap. Talk about a huge swing from the forecast not so long ago.

And on queue, Dixie Alley looks to be rather sporty. Crazy to see how active that "Alley" has become, and I'm not sure that their geology allows for the construction of basements/cellars. Although there are those reinforced closets/rooms that can be incorporated into the main structure of the house.

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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:38 pm

Meanwhile, Dixie Alley is doing what it does best this time of year...

Cpv17
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Re: MARCH 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:08 pm

The latest Euro has some nice rain for us Sunday into Monday morning.

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