April 2021

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:08 pm

Headed ESE. Slight bow echo to the supercell. It's gotten quite dark here.
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davidiowx
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Re: April 2021

Post by davidiowx » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:11 pm

Looks like that will head well North if my area.. BOOO! I could use some heavy rains and a lot of lightning and thunder!

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:12 pm

Possibly maybe this supercell holds together past BCS.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

Upper disturbance and associated shra and elevated tstms moving
across ncntl Tx. Guidance is a mixed bag in regards to precip
coverage and intensity across se Tx in the next 6-9 hours. Previous
24 hours worth of CAMs showed a fair bit of consistency with a
cluster of strong elevated tstms developing and moving into the
Brazos Valley and sinking to the southeast toward the I-10 corridor
before weakening. Some of the recent runs aren`t quite as bullish,
though some of the global models are still holding out hope for
fairly decent coverage across parts of the area (mainly north of I-
10).
Developing cluster north of Marble falls (340pm) may be the one
earlier guidance was pinging on.

Overall forecast confidence isn`t particularly very high. Will
taper POPs very slightly, but mainly ride with the ongoing fcst into
the evening and monitor trends. Recent aircraft soundings in the
area show a saturated warm nose between H95-H7 so confidence is
fairly high that any convective activity sagging into the CWA will
remain mostly elevated with large hail being the primary threat into
the mid-evening hours. Coverage/intensity diminishes a few hours
after sunset.

Otherwise, llvl flow will gradually veer to the se/s going into
Friday as high pressure edges ewd. A very messy zonal pattern
continues and the expectation is that another disturbance will
move into the region during the day and generate some shra and
possibly a few tstms. Better rain chances situated north of I-10.
This impulse is fcst to move east of the area before a cold front
moves into northern parts of the area Fri evening and off the
coast before sunrise Sat.
Though there will be some decent llvl
convergence associated along the boundary, the deeper moisture
axis will likely have moved out of the area w/ the passing
disturbance. Suspect we`ll just see a narrow band of shra right
along the front as it passes through. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Cold air advection and lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures
over the weekend below normal with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s for
Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances persist along the coast through
Saturday night due to lingering moisture (PW values around 1") along
with favorable jet mechanics (right entrance region) that will
provide the upper-level support. With virtually no instability in
place and dry air encompassing the atmospheric profile from the
surface up to 700mb, expecting only isolated to widely scattered
rain showers for Saturday. If anything, may have been too generous
on the PoPs, but the highest probabilities will remain over the Gulf
waters. Back to the CAA, overnight lows for Saturday and Sunday will
feature temperatures that are 7-10 degrees below normal. Lows will
dip down into the upper 40s/low 50s on each of these nights. CAA
comes to an early Monday morning as surface high pressure slides off
to the east and places the region in onshore flow by Tuesday.
Resultingly, highs will be back in the upper 70s for Tuesday. Want
to briefly mention that a shortwave trough will swing through the
region on Monday night, but forecast soundings indicate a profile
that is too dry aloft to support notable precipitation reaching the
surface.

GFS/ECMWF are in agreement on a surface cold front briefly pushing
into the region on Tuesday night, which will help bring overnight
lows back into the upper 40s/low 50s. Models agree that there will
not be much moisture in place ahead of this front, but there is a
bit of disagreement on if upper-level support will be present that
could try to squeeze out some rain showers along the boundary. For
now, leaned towards keeping PoPs out for this FROPA. Speaking of
model disagreements, there isn`t a clear answer as to how long the
CAA with this front will last but it will definitely be shorter than
Friday night`s front. ECMWF/Canadian keep CAA lingering through
Wednesday evening, while the GFS ends the CAA on early Wednesday
afternoon. This makes Wednesday`s high temperature forecast tricky
since one model shows afternoon WAA while others show persisting
CAA. Surface high pressure pushes off to the east by Thursday and
with strong onshore flow likely, moisture increases quickly with PW
values reaching 1.3"-1.7" by Thursday night. A shortwave trough
swinging down into the Southern Plains along with a developing
surface low pressure in north TX will combine to develop showers and
thunderstorms in the area going into Thursday afternoon.

Batiste

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:13 pm

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12619A9EBBC4.SpecialWeatherStatement.12619A9EE20CTX.HGXSPSHGX.c8e3d18185c446687ec77b3a115a530d from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 17:17 CDT on 04-15-2021
Effective: 15:37 CDT on 04-15-2021
Expires: 18:15 CDT on 04-15-2021
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRIMES...BURLESON...BRAZOS...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN WALLER
AND SOUTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Hearne to near Caldwell
to 6 miles northwest of Dime Box. Movement was east at 45 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Hempstead, Caldwell,
Washington, Somerville, Snook, Millican, Anderson, Lake Somerville
Dam, Kyle Field, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Lyons,
Deanville, Independence, Quarry, Chriesman and Plantersville.
Instructions: Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. If on or near Lake Somerville, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Montgomery
Walker
Waller
Washington

txbear
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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:16 pm

Not optimistic about rain tomorrow. Doc did and jason may luck out on rain with the complex plowing through.

Bad feeling we’ll be capped or today’s complex will have overworked the atmosphere.

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:22 pm

That storm will miss me by at least 40 miles to the north.

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:28 pm

txbear wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:16 pm
Not optimistic about rain tomorrow. Doc did and jason may luck out on rain with the complex plowing through.

Bad feeling we’ll be capped or today’s complex will have overworked the atmosphere.
Just take a look at the mesoscale models for tomorrow. They basically show nothing.

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srainhoutx
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Re: April 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:49 pm

I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;)
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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:55 pm

The rain is nice but could do without the nickel-sized hail that came with it, that’s for sure.

I see many folks to the south didn’t see anything. If tomorrow doesn’t pan out for them it won’t be a good thing, regardless of the beating we just took up here ;)

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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:06 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:49 pm
I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;)
Didnt complain about not getting hailed on. Said it before, been there done that. Seen the dents and damage.

Just opined on not feeling great about opportunity for rain tomorrow. Think that’s a fair statement given the lack of rain thus far.

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