April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:34 pm

There's a pearl thread of moisture trying to sneak into the Brazos Valley along a weak front.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:37 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is still well to the north of SE TX and it is
very slowly moving southward. The front will reach KCLL between
23-00z and there should be a broken line of shra/tsra. Additional
showers will develop south of the front and feed into t
he line.
Timing things is going to be a work in progress and leaned toward
a HRRR/TT WRF blend. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the
850-700 mb layer both today and again on Friday yet some of the
CAMs show potential for very heavy rain.
:lol:

Jet dynamics show a splitting jet structure tomorrow so have leaned toward some of the
more aggressive models.
MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon
with a mix of MVFR and IFR tonight into Friday. Could get some
patchy sea fog near KGLS as well. 43

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:45 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:26 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:17 pm
I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Maybe so. It's looks pretty dry to me at the moment, with just a hair of a swirl over the western Caribbean

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

The low over SE New Mexico is more likely the potential wellspring of showers tonight and tomorrow.
Yeah that low will be tapping into a lot of moisture coming from the Gulf. The WPC mentioned that in their last excessive rainfall discussion.

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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:56 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:17 pm
I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
I agree, i would be surprised if they didn't upgrade to at least a slight risk with this afternoons update.I'm a little afraid some people could get caught off guard tomorrow if the higher qpf amounts verify. WPC showing widespread amounts of 3-4 inches now.
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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:30 pm

I welcome the rain but after this system I will be OK with a break. Any rainy days at this point delays my pool construction!

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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:06 pm

Couple of boundaries working to the NE....
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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:21 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:06 pm
Couple of boundaries working to the NE....
Mostly verga at the moment here.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:23 pm

Midlevel cap may be eroding and moving west.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:50 pm

The WPC upgraded our region to the slight risk in their latest update:

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Re: April 2021

Post by Andrew » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:00 pm

Latest HRRR shows some concern for localized flooding Friday morning. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
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