There's a pearl thread of moisture trying to sneak into the Brazos Valley along a weak front.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
April 2021
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is still well to the north of SE TX and it is
very slowly moving southward. The front will reach KCLL between
23-00z and there should be a broken line of shra/tsra. Additional
showers will develop south of the front and feed into the line.
Timing things is going to be a work in progress and leaned toward
a HRRR/TT WRF blend. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the
850-700 mb layer both today and again on Friday yet some of the
CAMs show potential for very heavy rain.
Jet dynamics show a splitting jet structure tomorrow so have leaned toward some of the
more aggressive models. MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon
with a mix of MVFR and IFR tonight into Friday. Could get some
patchy sea fog near KGLS as well. 43
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is still well to the north of SE TX and it is
very slowly moving southward. The front will reach KCLL between
23-00z and there should be a broken line of shra/tsra. Additional
showers will develop south of the front and feed into the line.
Timing things is going to be a work in progress and leaned toward
a HRRR/TT WRF blend. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the
850-700 mb layer both today and again on Friday yet some of the
CAMs show potential for very heavy rain.
Jet dynamics show a splitting jet structure tomorrow so have leaned toward some of the
more aggressive models. MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon
with a mix of MVFR and IFR tonight into Friday. Could get some
patchy sea fog near KGLS as well. 43
Yeah that low will be tapping into a lot of moisture coming from the Gulf. The WPC mentioned that in their last excessive rainfall discussion.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:26 pmMaybe so. It's looks pretty dry to me at the moment, with just a hair of a swirl over the western CaribbeanCpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:17 pm I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
The low over SE New Mexico is more likely the potential wellspring of showers tonight and tomorrow.
I agree, i would be surprised if they didn't upgrade to at least a slight risk with this afternoons update.I'm a little afraid some people could get caught off guard tomorrow if the higher qpf amounts verify. WPC showing widespread amounts of 3-4 inches now.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:17 pm I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
I welcome the rain but after this system I will be OK with a break. Any rainy days at this point delays my pool construction!
The WPC upgraded our region to the slight risk in their latest update:
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 82 guests