April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:51 pm

You can see the outline of many of the major highways on the radar scope. That's interesting...

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:54 pm

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
936 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-301045-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0001.210430T0300Z-210502T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-
Including the cities of Shepherd, Cleveland, Groveton, Dayton,
Bryan, Huntsville, Corrigan, Crockett, Liberty, Navasota, Caldwell,
Livingston, Conroe, Brenham, Coldspring, College Station, The
Woodlands, Somerville, Trinity, and Madisonville
936 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker and Washington.

* Through Sunday morning

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as a cold front slowly sags southward. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected, but training of heavier storms may produce localized areas of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall.

* Flooding of low-lying, poorly draining areas and other vulnerable locations are possible if they are impacted by storms with heavier rainfall rates and amounts. Multiple rounds of these storms would worsen the potential for flooding. Where rain rates are more manageable, previously dry conditions will help reduce concerns for flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:11 pm

Some of the mesoscale models are going nuts showing potential for 10+” in isolated spots.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:28 pm

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of SE TX tonight-Sunday morning.

Afternoon and evening short range model runs continue to suggest a line of slow moving thunderstorms with the potential to produce hourly rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will develop later this evening into Friday morning roughly from Huntsville toward Columbus and then slowly sag southward toward NW and N Harris County in the 500-700am time frame and then toward I-10 in the 700-900am period. Timing could change either direction by a few hours.

Slow storm motions along with increasing potential for cell training and hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are increasing the threat for street flooding. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is looking increasingly likely with isolated totals of 4-8 inches and would not rule out a 10 inch maximum somewhere. Amounts in the short range (CAMs guidance) have been increasing this afternoon and evening.

Bayous and creeks will be able to handle rainfall amounts upwards of 5 inches, but totals over that in a short period of time could result in near bankfull conditions on some of the smaller channels.

WPC has upgraded much of the area into a slight risk of flash flooding.

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Re: April 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:41 pm

Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:48 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:41 pm
Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.
That’s not a big difference at all lol

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Re: April 2021

Post by davidiowx » Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:03 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:41 pm
Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.
Well one of them will be right.. or both in a localized way.

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:00 pm

20 inches....hah...sure...

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:15 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:00 pm
20 inches....hah...sure...
Well the 0z NAM gets kinda close but it’s probably overdone:

Image

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Re: April 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:34 am

Early morning booming and bumping on the south side. Cells are expanding but so far the meanest part is to my west.

Image

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