April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:01 am

This is how you bust the cap.

Meaty, steamy mid level. Moderate CAPE lowish shear. Nice soaking spring rains without severe weather.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

Stormlover2020
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Re: April 2021

Post by Stormlover2020 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:21 am

Rainfall will slowly weaken today as air mass has been worked over by the early morning activity.

What does this actually mean, describe in weather terminology for me please.

ajurcat
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Re: April 2021

Post by ajurcat » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:22 am

Backyard is against retention pond for White Oak Bayou. We've had a nice 3" of rain.

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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:21 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:21 am
Rainfall will slowly weaken today as air mass has been worked over by the early morning activity.

What does this actually mean, describe in weather terminology for me please.
It means the atmosphere has stabilized due to the storms "sucking" up the energy available. The atmosphere will have to destabilize again before we get anymore significant rain.The next chance of heavy rain will be overnight into tomorrow morning.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:10 pm

We didn’t really see much training today of the heavier storms like some of the models were indicating. We’ve lucked out so far.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:10 pm

We kind of in the "hole" in the rain total data. Maybe 0.5 inches. At least it's been cool.

Everything looks like a nice soaker south of 1OH5 and 59
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txbear
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Re: April 2021

Post by txbear » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:25 pm

Looks like somewhere between 1.5 - 2 in. for my general location. Good rumbles of thunder to go with it as well. Most recent HRRR run I saw has a nice additional round coming through in the early morning hours tomorrow. Hoping for more of the same.

davidiowx
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Re: April 2021

Post by davidiowx » Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:56 pm

There is some training starting to set up over central Wharton county into Lavaca county.

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don
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Re: April 2021

Post by don » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:09 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

A complicated weather pattern will persist through Saturday night as
a slow moving upper level low over northern Mexico slowly moves
across the state. The cut-off upper level low will get nudged
eastward on Saturday as a short wave trough dives into the Great
Basin. The upper low will get sheared out as it moves east but not
before it induces surface low pressure to develop over south-central
Texas. The position of the upper level low will favor a splitting
jet structure over SE TX tonight and Saturday.

Tonight, fcst soundings show the evening starting out on the dry
side with dry air noted near 850 mb and in the 700-500 mb layer. The
moisture profile begins to re-saturate between 06-09z with PW values
once again increasing to between 1.80 and 2.00 inches. Low level
convergence will increase near Matagorda Bay closest to the surface
low. Models are pinging the SW zones tonight for heavy rain and this
seems reasonable based on the splitting jet and strong low level
convergence. Not sure how far N-NE the axis of heavy precip will get
tonight but first guess is that the heaviest rain will remain SW of
a CLL-HOU-GLS line. The rain will likely continue into Saturday
morning before waning in the afternoon. Have made some small
modifications to the Flash Flood Watch and removed areas around
Galveston Bay. This area did not receive much rain today and it
looks like the core of the heaviest rain will remain SW of this
area. The surface low will move north and pull a warm front across
the area Saturday afternoon. There should be a brief lull in the
precipitation in the wake of the warm front Saturday afternoon but
precipitation should increase again Saturday evening as the upper
level low pushes north. Fcst soundings show skinny CAPE and a super
saturated looking moisture profile and PW values again 2.00 inches
which suggests heavy rain will again be possible. One caveat for
Saturday night is the jet structure. The ECMWF still shows a
splitting jet but the NAM and the GFS don`t show much of a split in
the upper level wind field and they also suggest that SE TX will lie
in a subsident region of the jet. Have leaned toward the CAMs and
the ECMWF for consistency which all have the more favorable jet
structure. Moisture profiles begin to dry from the top down between
09-12z Sunday with PW values falling to 1.50 inches by 12z Sunday
and rainfall should begin to diminish by sunrise Sunday. 43

Cpv17
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Re: April 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:14 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:56 pm
There is some training starting to set up over central Wharton county into Lavaca county.
I just got home here in central Wharton County and just dumped 4.3” out of the gauge. When I left this morning at 6 to go to work the rain was just getting started here. It didn’t rain nearly as much at my job in Rosenberg. It’s a steady light to moderate rain here now.

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