May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Iceresistance
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There is a marginal risk of Storms in Western Texas & Western Oklahoma for storms that will try to go up, but the Cap is too strong, it looks like that Kansas will have the first May Severe Weather event, the STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is higher up there & into Missouri, but the STPC is too low (And the Cap) across Oklahoma & Texas will only give out the Marginal risk across Texas & Oklahoma, the uncertainty is just too high! First Post

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Cpv17
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Could have a wet next few days ahead. Both the GFS and Euro are showing potential for 2-4” widespread.
Cpv17
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Wow on the latest Euro run :o definitely going to open some eyes.
Iceresistance
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Enhanced risk from East-Central Texas (Lufkin) to Memphis, TN at the Mississippi . . .

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Cromagnum
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Post it please? I'm only seeing 10-20% until Tuesday, then 60% chance then back to dry.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 12:01 pm Post it please? I'm only seeing 10-20% until Tuesday, then 60% chance then back to dry.
Models don’t really show too much for this week. Maybe half an inch to one inch south of 10. 1-3” north of 10. The Euro however shows a much bigger system late into next weekend/beginning of next week.
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DoctorMu
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djmike
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Grrr. Why is everything staying north? This is so frustrating. Have not seen a drop so far for May in Beaumont so far. Seems like Beaumont southward just doesn’t get storms anymore this time of year, like our highway of storms we always got 5-10 years ago has shifted northward. Always forecasting 60-90% for us then when the system enters our area, poof.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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Had 80% overnight for me and it all stayed north, now 20% chance. Smh
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Iceresistance
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Long-Range models are hinting a potential Outbreak across the Southern Plains Later this week, this coming weekend & into Next Week, but the agreement is too low for this moment . . .

But right now, it's only 50ºF, urgh . . . It's acting more like March than May! :x
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djmike
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I wish it was 50 here in SETX!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
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unome
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... _1630.html
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail and damaging
winds are expected across parts of southern Texas this afternoon
into tonight. Severe storms with occasional large hail will be
possible this afternoon across northeast Texas and northwest
Louisiana, and a few damaging gusts will also be possible this
afternoon/evening across central and eastern North Carolina.

...Rio Grande Valley/south central TX this afternoon/evening...
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s have spread westward across
south central TX to the Rio Grande, beneath very steep midlevel
lapse rates near 9 C/km. The combination of surface heating in
cloud breaks by afternoon, low-level ascent along a stalled front
across the Edwards Plateau, and upslope flow into the Serranias Del
Burro (west of DRT), will support at least widely-scattered
thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. The initial storms
should be discrete, with some clustering possible later this evening
as a result of cell mergers/interactions of right- and left-moving
supercells. MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt with long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing
isolated very large to giant hail (3-4" diameter) and damaging
gusts. Additionally, low-level hodograph curvature/shear may remain
sufficient for an isolated tornado late this afternoon/evening.

...Central/eastern NC this afternoon/evening...
A subtle midlevel trough will move over NC this afternoon, as a
surface cold front moves southward from VA into NC. Surface heating
in cloud breaks will boost afternoon temperatures to near 80 F with
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s along and south of the
front, resulting in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon across
NC. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and a
little south of the front as buoyancy is maximized and convective
inhibition is removed by mid afternoon, and storms will subsequently
spread east-southeastward across NC through this evening. Though
midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, deep-layer vertical shear
will be sufficient for a few organized clusters/supercells capable
of producing damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Northeast TX to northwest LA through mid afternoon...
Elevated storms formed this morning over the Red River Valley in
association with warm advection and a subtle midlevel speed max
moving eastward. The storms may persist for a few more hours while
moving along the northeast edge of the buoyancy gradient (MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg), given the potential to maintain some organized
structures with effective bulk shear near 50 kt for the elevated
parcels. Occasional large hail will be the main threat.

...Southern LA this afternoon...
A cluster of storms with occasional bow and embedded supercell
structures is now moving across the New Orleans area. The
near-storm environment is somewhat favorable for organized storm
structures along the residual outflow boundary from overnight
convection. However, the storms appear to have peaked in intensity
earlier this morning, and the potential for any substantial uptick
this afternoon appears too uncertain to warrant any change to the
Marginal risk assessment.

..Thompson/Moore.. 05/10/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
unome
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djmike wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:39 am Grrr. Why is everything staying north? This is so frustrating. Have not seen a drop so far for May in Beaumont so far. Seems like Beaumont southward just doesn’t get storms anymore this time of year, like our highway of storms we always got 5-10 years ago has shifted northward. Always forecasting 60-90% for us then when the system enters our area, poof.
reminded me of one of my fav xkcd https://xkcd.com/831/

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djmike
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unome wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 12:32 pm
djmike wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:39 am Grrr. Why is everything staying north? This is so frustrating. Have not seen a drop so far for May in Beaumont so far. Seems like Beaumont southward just doesn’t get storms anymore this time of year, like our highway of storms we always got 5-10 years ago has shifted northward. Always forecasting 60-90% for us then when the system enters our area, poof.
reminded me of one of my fav xkcd https://xkcd.com/831/

Image
Hahaha thats it EXACTLY! Too funny.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cpv17
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The HRRR looks interesting Wednesday. Not much at all for tomorrow. Medium to long range has a lot of different storm systems moving into the southern plains but none of them really seem to push into southeast TX very much. We’ll see.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 10:50 am I wish it was 50 here in SETX!
It's 85° and really humid here. The front is tantalizingly close near Hearne. There's no rain in sight, so give me some north wind like up Hwy 6 in Marlin! 15°F cooler.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 12:48 pm
unome wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 12:32 pm
djmike wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:39 am Grrr. Why is everything staying north? This is so frustrating. Have not seen a drop so far for May in Beaumont so far. Seems like Beaumont southward just doesn’t get storms anymore this time of year, like our highway of storms we always got 5-10 years ago has shifted northward. Always forecasting 60-90% for us then when the system enters our area, poof.
reminded me of one of my fav xkcd https://xkcd.com/831/

Image
Hahaha thats it EXACTLY! Too funny.
The story of my life in College Station from May - August.
unome
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Dan Satterfield used that xkcd in one of his blog posts, it explains why sometimes it looks like the rain disappears or splits near you, depending on where local radars are in relation to your location. And anyone who is a fan of xkcd deserves a follow, imo :)

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2 ... all-lines/
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 1:11 pm The HRRR looks interesting Wednesday. Not much at all for tomorrow. Medium to long range has a lot of different storm systems moving into the southern plains but none of them really seem to push into southeast TX very much. We’ll see.
Yeah the HRRR shows training along the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday morning with some locations getting 6+ inches of rain.Something to watch for sure if the trend continues.
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jasons2k
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That comic says it all - haha!

94f here with a dew point of 80. Summer-like.
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