May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Bro WTF this is only 2 days out. Very interesting we definitely gotta wstch this now
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

There is a good mid level circulation right now with the system, and based on the model support out of nowhere today, i think it really is trying to make a run at development as we speak. I wonder if a special tropical advisory will be needed this evening by the NHC.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Wow. Mother Nature just threw in that curve ball. Its definitely plausible. Doesnt STX/MX usually get a storm right around kick off season? I remember last year Brownsville got struck right from the start.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Texashawk
Posts: 170
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:29 pm
Contact:

NHC’s latest TWO shows nothing doing in the Gulf.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Texashawk wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 1:37 pm NHC’s latest TWO shows nothing doing in the Gulf.
I know that's why i wonder if they will have to issue a special statement later this evening if the tends continue,wouldn't be the first time this has happened.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I wouldnt be shocked if this ends up becoming a low end tropical storm, definitely am seeing aome good mid level rotation as wel just like DON said
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Crazy
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

There really wasn't enough time to mention it based on the 12z runs. Likely they wait till this evening if warranted.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I domt think ive ever seen models all jump on board with a potential tropical system in one run and one day, absolutely crazy
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 1:41 pm I wouldnt be shocked if this ends up becoming a low end tropical storm, definitely am seeing aome good mid level rotation as wel just like DON said
That’s exactly what the Euro is showing. Probably a 40 to 50mph tropical storm when it makes landfall. Pressure probably somewhere around 1004 to 1006mb. We should see 91L here shortly.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

And juat when we thought thw flooding rains were done Mother Nature says “ But wait theres more’” this would be really bad if this system forms, a tropical depression or weak storm would only help to enhance heavy rain fall, definitely a very concerning potential situation
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

River flooding. My work is closing down beginning tomorrow and deploying our ride out team. I work at a plant in beaumont. Neches/Sabine River is expected to rise above flood stage and engulf the whole area. Lets just add more moisture and a TC into the mix. Great! Heads up also, I can see them closing the border too to LA. I10 is usually cut off when this happens.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Well then...
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

No mention by the NHC in the 1PM update.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

The EURO has the system developing overnight tonight into a storm, looking at satellite i think it seems pretty obvious at this point its atleast trying to develop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Yeah Don I definitely think this showing some signs of organization, seems like convection is trying to fire around the area of cyclonic spin, definitely wouldnt be shocked to see if the NHC mentions this later
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

What's the sheer currently like in the Western GOM?
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

We don't need this if it's going to be a sloopy rain maker..this could cause major problems
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Rip76 Wind Shaer is high 30-35 knots, however this system is currently in a pocket of moderate to Low shear, so it definitely has a chance to devlope
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Tropical systems have developed in that area with worse conditions. Satellite loop looking pretty darn good.
Post Reply
  • Information