May 2021:

[Stratton20]

No way this doesnt become a depression at least, that spin definitely has gotten well defined, just gotta wait to see if we can get any thunderstorms to develop around the center

[mcheer23]

Regardless of development....which i do think it will develop.... I wouldn't expect much from this system. 1-3 inches

[Stratton20]

This is just a precursor of whats to come this season, I think this is the year we get the big storm, we are overdue , I unfortunately think Houston could be in the crosshaires of a major hurricane.

[Dls2010r]

Don’t say that.

[snowman65]

This is just a precursor of whats to come this season, I think this is the year we get the big storm, we are overdue , I unfortunately think Houston could be in the crosshaires of a major hurricane.

Overdue? lol. Speak for yourself. Last year I had Laura and Delta.......I'm good for awhile.\, but I do believe things have changed and these new hurricane seasons are our normal way of life on the gulf coast from now on. You will probably never hear that future hurricane seasons will be be below normal activity. I think we are in our new "normal".

[Cromagnum]

This is just a precursor of whats to come this season, I think this is the year we get the big storm, we are overdue , I unfortunately think Houston could be in the crosshaires of a major hurricane.

Me. Nobody is ever "due". We (Houston) were very close to under the gun many times last year which was a strong La Nina year, but most everything pushed east of us thankfully (no offense to our Cajun friends). The ENSO pattern is neutral right now and may shift towards La Nina later this fall. Should be less Hurricanes this year than in 2020.

[Cpv17]

This is just a precursor of whats to come this season, I think this is the year we get the big storm, we are overdue , I unfortunately think Houston could be in the crosshaires of a major hurricane.

Me. Nobody is ever "due". We (Houston) were very close to under the gun many times last year which was a strong La Nina year, but most everything pushed east of us thankfully (no offense to our Cajun friends). The ENSO pattern is neutral right now and may shift towards La Nina later this fall. Should be less Hurricanes this year than in 2020.

Idk. There’s only so long before your luck runs out. Eventually you’re going to get hit. It probably won’t be as busy as it was last season but who knows really? None of us can predict what Mother Nature has in store for us.

[Dls2010r]

Next month I’m moving to a house on Galveston bay. No jinxing please

[Stratton20]

I meant overdue as in the Houston area getting a direct hit from a major hurricane, I wasnt talking about any other areas beaides houston, its only a matter a time when it happens, and I think it could happen this year, , just my opinion, again Im not saying I want it to happen, im saying that I think it could happen

[redneckweather]

I meant overdue as in the Houston area getting a direct hit from a major hurricane, I wasnt talking about any other areas beaides houston, its only a matter a time when it happens, and I think it could happen this year, , just my opinion, again Im not saying I want it to happen, im saying that I think it could happen

Yea, it can happen any year.

[Rip76]

First little feeder moving in toward Galveston.

[jasons2k]

Conditions change in the tropics from season-to-season, month-to-month, day-to-day, and minute-to-minute. There is no such thing as "overdue" from a scientific standpoint.

What happened last year, or the year before, or the decade before has no - none - zero - statistical bearing on if we will see a landfalling hurricane this year.

Each and every year is unique. You may not see anything for decades. You may see multiple storms in the same season. You just never know.

[Cpv17]

I think NOAA released their forecast yesterday and the numbers they predicted for last year are basically the same that they’re predicting for this season as well. But we all know how last season went. They were way off and so was everyone else for that matter. Point is that they’re still calling for a well above average season.

[jasons2k]

From WxMan 57 on Storm2k:

I think NHC may go 50%-70% chance of development in their next outlook. We are initiating advisories on the disturbance now. Moves inland near Matagorda Bay around 1am tomorrow as a depression.

[jasons2k]

Regardless of development....which i do think it will develop.... I wouldn't expect much from this system. 1-3 inches

Maybe overall, but it doesn't take but one feeder band to dump a lot more than that in localized areas though...

[Stratton20]

Yes I think these lopsided systems like the one in the gulf can be insanely hard to predict in terms of rainfall, one feeder band in the wrong area and its big time trouble

[don]

From WxMan 57 on Storm2k:

I think NHC may go 50%-70% chance of development in their next outlook. We are initiating advisories on the disturbance now. Moves inland near Matagorda Bay around 1am tomorrow as a depression.

Interesting Wxman57 knows he stuff. WPC has placed a larger area in the slight risk for flooding today. With a moderate risk possible depending on the systems development.


WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point

Updated: 1553 UTC Fri May 21, 2021
Valid: 16 UTC May 21, 2021 - 12 UTC May 22, 2021

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Forecast Discussion


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri May 21 2021 - 12Z Sat May 22 2021

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

Persistent troughing in the West and ridging across the East will
result in a continual moisture feed into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and southern portions of the Southern High
Plains through the forecast period. As a result, convective rains
will impact already saturated soils leading to the potential for
another round of flash flooding in some locations.

A bit of uncertainty remains with respect to the mesoscale
convergence boundaries and the influence a weak mid-level wave
will have on the region as it lifts north into eastern TX this
afternoon. This feature will likely enhance/focus convection in
southern LA and far eastern TX. However, this wave could also
help to advance convective activity quick to the north and west
with subsidence acting to diminish activity by evening.
Therefore, it is hard to say with any degree of certainty if
and/or where convergence associated with the wave will focus
training convection across already saturated soils for an extended
period of time. Regardless, there are ingredients that clearly
point to at least multiple rounds of heavy rain. Precipitable
water values will range between 1.8-2+ inches (aided by 25-35 knot
low level southeastern flow), which is 3+ standard deviations
above the mean. As the upper level ridge and associated surface
high pressure situated across the East starts to retrograde to the
south and west today the moisture gradient will slowly shift
westward toward southwest LA, far eastern TX and into portions of
OK/AR. With diurnal heating, anticipate instability to build
through the day to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with some instability
also offshore. Given such deep layer moisture, anticipate
efficient rain totals of over 1.5 inches/hour. With the potential
for training (as the Corfidi vectors become better aligned with
the mean wind along the confluence zone), hourly total
precipitation could climb into the 2-3" range. Areal average
precipitation will range between 1-3+ inches with locally higher
amounts anticipated.

Based on the precipitation observed over the past week, which has
been 600+ percent of normal, this region is extremely sensitive to
additional rainfall, which has been confirmed by the National
Water Center. Therefore, retained the Slight Risk area, refining
the location given the latest thinking, trends and 12Z HREF data.
While a Moderate Risk was considered, guidance and ingredients did
not support the upgrade at this forecast issuance. The low HREF
probabilities as it pertains to 3" and 5" in 24 hours would also
validate this assessment, but some of this could be due to model
dispersion. Radar trends or convective/structural uptick of the
low in the northwest Gulf could lead to a short-fused upgrade to a
Moderate Risk this afternoon or evening. At this time, scattered
to widespread flash flooding is possible, with the limited
potential for a significant flash flooding event.

Farther to the north, into eastern OK, there will be a focus for
heavy rain with some upslope enhancement as Gulf moisture lifts
north. Areal average precipitation will range between 0.75-1.5+
inches. Given lower FFG values due to saturated soils, anticipate
localized flash flooding may occur. The inherited Marginal Risk
was shifted somewhat westward to accomodate the 12z HREF guidance.

Roth/Pagano

[Stratton20]

Yesterday the storms speed was 15 mph, this morning it was down to 12 mph, now its at 9 mph, getting a little concerned this might be more a slow moving system then what the models are predicting

[Scott747]

Sounds like they may start advisories this afternoon.

[Cromagnum]

Pretty decent rain bands coming through