May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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area weather peeps will be busy this week

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Iceresistance
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I've never seen the WPC have a Moderate Risk of Flooding 3 days out that does not include a Tropical Cyclone!

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Look at the WPC QPF! :shock:
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The situation is looking very dire!
Cpv17
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Looks like on average most of us in southeast TX will pick up 7-10” with some areas approaching 20”.
Iceresistance
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Flash Flood Watch for ALL of DFW
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas...northeast
Texas and south central Texas, including the following areas, in
north central Texas, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke,
Coryell, Dallas, Denton, Eastland, Ellis, Erath, Falls, Fannin,
Freestone, Grayson, Hamilton, Hill, Hood, Hunt, Jack, Johnson,
Kaufman, Lampasas, Limestone, McLennan, Mills, Montague, Navarro,
Palo Pinto, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Stephens, Tarrant, Wise
and Young. In northeast Texas, Anderson, Delta, Henderson,
Hopkins, Lamar, Leon, Rains and Van Zandt. In south central Texas,
Milam and Robertson.

* From 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning

* Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts near 8
inches possible through early Wednesday.

* Flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas. Heavy
rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
And a Flood Watch from NWS-Norman for Central & Southern Oklahoma, & into Northern Texas . . .
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas, including
the following areas, in Oklahoma, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian,
Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Greer,
Hughes, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnston, Kiowa, Lincoln, Logan, Love,
Marshall, McClain, Murray, Oklahoma, Payne, Pontotoc,
Pottawatomie, Seminole, Stephens, Tillman and Washita. In northern
Texas, Archer, Baylor, Clay, Wichita and Wilbarger.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Several rounds of heavy rainfall are expected today thru Wednesday
morning across portions of central, southern, and southwestern
Oklahoma, and north Texas. Many locations will receive 2 to 4
inches of total rainfall during this time, and some locations near
the Red River may receive over 6 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
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don
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Looks like models are in a pretty good agreement with the formation of a large MCS in central Texas. That moves in and stalls over the area, due to the southeast ridge to our east.The Gulf inflow is strong enough that the MCS continues to back build,with small impulses coming in from the gulf from the strong inflow helping to refire convection once it starts to wain.
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Katdaddy
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
903 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXZ210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437-162100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0003.210516T1403Z-210516T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal
Brazoria-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Bellville, Bay City,
Columbus, Hempstead, Wharton, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Eagle
Lake, Alvin, Waller, Sugar Land, Prairie View, Sealy, Rosenberg,
Edna, Ganado, El Campo, Mission Bend, Angleton, and Weimar
903 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
Austin, Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Matagorda,
Colorado, Fort Bend, Inland Brazoria, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda
Islands, Waller and Wharton.

* Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon

* Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms that have developed this
morning have produced rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour across
portions of Jackson and Matagorda Counties. 6 inches of rain have
already fallen over portions of this area. Additional showers and
storms are expected to develop across the area today, which will
pose a threat of flash flooding. The Watch may need to be expanded
or extended across portions of SE Texas depending on how
conditions develop during the day.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Exercise caution if traveling today. If you encounter flooded roads,
do not attempt to drive through floodwaters. Turn Around, Don`t
Drown!
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Katdaddy
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Flash Flood Warning to SW Houston:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Jackson County in south central Texas...
Southern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 AM CDT.

* At 935 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen across portions of the area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Edna, Ganado, Cordele, Morales, Louise and Lake Texana Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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srainhoutx
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Sunday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A wet week is in store for SE TX with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

Flooding and flash flood threat will increase with time.

A short wave is approaching the area this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms starting to develop over the area and this will continue through the day. Storms have anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning where flash flood warnings are currently in effect and this will be the story this week. Main upper level storm system over the SW US will eject several disturbances across TX and these disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Given the feed of moisture, the potential for slow moving and training storms, and high moisture levels, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week, and while it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds and grounds will saturate and run-off will increase with time. Concern for today is the slow storm motions currently being seen to the SW of the urban areas as such storm motions and rainfall rates over more urban areas would quickly lead to street flooding.

Main concern period may be in the Wed-Thurs time as the main upper level storm moves into TX and SE TX comes under very favorable rainfall production pattern with a steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft that would tend to support training of lines and clusters of storms. However there could be flooding and heavy rainfall and nearly any time from today-Friday.

Rainfall Amounts:

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible with the stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern.

5-Day Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:
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tireman4
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Please stay weather aware today until the end of the week.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

an update from Eric Berger on Space City Weather, Matt should have another by 7 PM tonight

https://spacecityweather.com/
https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX
https://twitter.com/mattlanza
Iceresistance
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Tornado Warning near Port Aransas, TX
Cpv17
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We haven’t seen too much rain here in central Wharton County yet but just a few miles to my south they’ve already seen up to 10” in spots.
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jasons2k
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Location: Imperial Oaks
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Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...Central/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161715Z - 161915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon
across portions of central and east TX. Isolated damaging wind gusts
are the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar imagery reveals a pair of
MCVs across the southern Plains, one over central OK and the other
along the middle TX Coast. Modest southerly low-level flow exists
between these two features, roughly along and east of I-35. The
thermodynamic environment is expected to remain only marginally
buoyant, with overall buoyancy tempered by the limited diurnal
heating. Even so, thunderstorms are expected to persist while
gradually drifting eastward throughout the day.

Surface winds have been backing a bit more southeasterly just ahead
of the storms, which, when coupled with the modest low-level
southerly flow and westerly flow aloft, result in a kinematic
profile that could support a supercell or two. Damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts/supercells,
with some low-probability potential for a brief tornado as well.
Marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat is expected to
preclude the need for a watch.
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unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/1393933944245084163

Screenshot_2021-05-16 NWSWGRFC on Twitter - Copy.png
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don
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New WPC qpf map.
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Texaspirate11
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It will go west and north of us as usual....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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don
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...[Through Monday Night]

Areas south of I-10 got pummeled today with periods of heavy rain.
The hardest hit areas were in Jackson, southern Wharton and
Matagorda counties where as much as 12 to 14 inches of rain fell.
A Flash Flood Watch previously in effect will be allowed to expire
at 4 PM. Model performance so far today has been poor but the HRW
WRF-NSSL initialized well and seems to be being do the best out of
the models. Have leaned strongly toward this model for the next 36
hours.

So what`s going to happen? Not 100 percent sure, but current
thinking is the large convective burst in Matagorda county will
weaken into a stratiform rain shield as it moves up the coast
eventually fizzling out after 00z. For the most part, feel there
will be a significant gap in the rainfall overnight as the short
wave responsible for today`s precip moves east and the strong
splitting jet structure becomes briefly zonal. PW values also
briefly dip from 2.00 inches down to around 1.60 inches. All of
this points to a decreasing trend in PoPs and QPF. Min T values
tonight should remain warm with clouds and winds failing to
decouple.

Toward sunrise Monday, upper level winds begin to split again as
another short wave moves toward SE TX. The WRF-NSSL does not
generate much precip toward morning and this is concerning because
the last 4 runs of the HRRR shows convection re-firing on what
looks like a residual outflow boundary from today`s convection.
Although confidence is not terribly high, feel likely PoPs are
warranted over the east by 12z Monday and PoPs will increase
across the rest of the CWA as moisture levels deepen and favorable
jet dynamics stay in place. Will again mention locally heavy for
Monday as the potential exists for pockets of heavy rain. Will
another Flash Flood Watch be needed? Maybe? But the area most
likely to receive heavy rain on Monday did not have heavy rain
today so will hold off on issuing a Watch for Monday and defer to
the midnight shift. Clouds and rain will again keep MaxT values
on the cool side with highs near 80. Clouds will hang in Monday
night so not expecting much of a drop off in temperatures with
MinT values in the upper 60`s north to low/mid 70`s south. 43

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

By Tuesday morning, the slowly migrating cutoff low will be centered
somewhere near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, which will strengthen
our onshore flow across Southeast Texas. This will drive up more
Gulf moisture across our area with PWATs climbing to approximately
1.75 inches. Models hint at PVA lobes pushing through, which will
help kick up showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest
rain chances and rainfall amounts will be in our NW counties, with
rainfall totals predicted to be 1-2" and up to 1" everywhere else.

Wednesday and Thursday are still shaping up to be another day with
heavy rainfall amounts despite global models differing in mesoscale
features overhead. As global models show the cutoff low dissipating
and/or drifting north, a low-level jet overhead of us will
strengthen, driving PWATs up even further to approximately 2 inches,
priming the atmosphere with ample moisture. A deep wedge of moisture
and rain across our CWA will stretch across the Central Plains
combined with more PVA invigorating convection. As if that weren`t
enough, the GFS and ECMWF hint at a surface low developing across
South TX near Brownsville and pushing north. All of these
ingredients will lead to a nearly stationary boundary of heavy
rainfall across the I-45 corridor with rainfall totals expected to
reach approximately 6-9 inches Wednesday through Thursday.

Unfortunately, rainfall is expected to persist through the rest of
the long-term period. A high pressure over the Southeast US tries to
build into our area, which might suppress convection slightly, but
models still hint at rainy weather persisting through the weekend.

KBL
davidiowx
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 3:56 pm It will go west and north of us as usual....
I think a lot will depend on what comes of the potential low near Brownsville.

I’m right at 1” IMBY today. Perfect type of rain for the lawn, trees and my garden that is already producing green beans, peppers, cucumbers, squash and pumpkins starting to fruit as well. Will see what comes of the potatoes, carrots, and watermelon.

Def don’t want 10” but I’d rather have that at this point than no rain for the next several months.
Cpv17
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Louise, TX area has already seen close to a foot of rain today. I just missed it today by about 15-20 miles.
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