May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

area weather peeps will be busy this week

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Iceresistance
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Location: Tecumseh, OK
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I've never seen the WPC have a Moderate Risk of Flooding 3 days out that does not include a Tropical Cyclone!

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Look at the WPC QPF! :shock:
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The situation is looking very dire!
Cpv17
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Location: El Campo/Wharton
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Looks like on average most of us in southeast TX will pick up 7-10” with some areas approaching 20”.
Iceresistance
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Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
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Flash Flood Watch for ALL of DFW
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas...northeast
Texas and south central Texas, including the following areas, in
north central Texas, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke,
Coryell, Dallas, Denton, Eastland, Ellis, Erath, Falls, Fannin,
Freestone, Grayson, Hamilton, Hill, Hood, Hunt, Jack, Johnson,
Kaufman, Lampasas, Limestone, McLennan, Mills, Montague, Navarro,
Palo Pinto, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Stephens, Tarrant, Wise
and Young. In northeast Texas, Anderson, Delta, Henderson,
Hopkins, Lamar, Leon, Rains and Van Zandt. In south central Texas,
Milam and Robertson.

* From 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning

* Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts near 8
inches possible through early Wednesday.

* Flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas. Heavy
rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
And a Flood Watch from NWS-Norman for Central & Southern Oklahoma, & into Northern Texas . . .
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas, including
the following areas, in Oklahoma, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian,
Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Greer,
Hughes, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnston, Kiowa, Lincoln, Logan, Love,
Marshall, McClain, Murray, Oklahoma, Payne, Pontotoc,
Pottawatomie, Seminole, Stephens, Tillman and Washita. In northern
Texas, Archer, Baylor, Clay, Wichita and Wilbarger.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Several rounds of heavy rainfall are expected today thru Wednesday
morning across portions of central, southern, and southwestern
Oklahoma, and north Texas. Many locations will receive 2 to 4
inches of total rainfall during this time, and some locations near
the Red River may receive over 6 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
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don
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Looks like models are in a pretty good agreement with the formation of a large MCS in central Texas. That moves in and stalls over the area, due to the southeast ridge to our east.The Gulf inflow is strong enough that the MCS continues to back build,with small impulses coming in from the gulf from the strong inflow helping to refire convection once it starts to wain.
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Screenshot_2021-05-16 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot_2021-05-16 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
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Katdaddy
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Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
903 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXZ210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437-162100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0003.210516T1403Z-210516T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal
Brazoria-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Bellville, Bay City,
Columbus, Hempstead, Wharton, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Eagle
Lake, Alvin, Waller, Sugar Land, Prairie View, Sealy, Rosenberg,
Edna, Ganado, El Campo, Mission Bend, Angleton, and Weimar
903 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
Austin, Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Matagorda,
Colorado, Fort Bend, Inland Brazoria, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda
Islands, Waller and Wharton.

* Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon

* Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms that have developed this
morning have produced rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour across
portions of Jackson and Matagorda Counties. 6 inches of rain have
already fallen over portions of this area. Additional showers and
storms are expected to develop across the area today, which will
pose a threat of flash flooding. The Watch may need to be expanded
or extended across portions of SE Texas depending on how
conditions develop during the day.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Exercise caution if traveling today. If you encounter flooded roads,
do not attempt to drive through floodwaters. Turn Around, Don`t
Drown!
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Katdaddy
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Location: League City, Tx
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Flash Flood Warning to SW Houston:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Jackson County in south central Texas...
Southern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 AM CDT.

* At 935 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen across portions of the area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Edna, Ganado, Cordele, Morales, Louise and Lake Texana Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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srainhoutx
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Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Sunday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A wet week is in store for SE TX with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

Flooding and flash flood threat will increase with time.

A short wave is approaching the area this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms starting to develop over the area and this will continue through the day. Storms have anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning where flash flood warnings are currently in effect and this will be the story this week. Main upper level storm system over the SW US will eject several disturbances across TX and these disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Given the feed of moisture, the potential for slow moving and training storms, and high moisture levels, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week, and while it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds and grounds will saturate and run-off will increase with time. Concern for today is the slow storm motions currently being seen to the SW of the urban areas as such storm motions and rainfall rates over more urban areas would quickly lead to street flooding.

Main concern period may be in the Wed-Thurs time as the main upper level storm moves into TX and SE TX comes under very favorable rainfall production pattern with a steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft that would tend to support training of lines and clusters of storms. However there could be flooding and heavy rainfall and nearly any time from today-Friday.

Rainfall Amounts:

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible with the stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern.

5-Day Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:
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tireman4
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Location: Humble, Texas
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Please stay weather aware today until the end of the week.
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