May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Sun May 30, 2021 7:37 pm

Bruh Chill, are you referring to the potential storm the GFS is showing 9-10 days from now?

Cpv17
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Cpv17 » Sun May 30, 2021 8:17 pm

Dls2010r wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 5:15 pm
Didn’t CPV call this possible storm a few days ago?
Yes I did but this is a different system. The one I mentioned a few days ago was an EPAC crossover and the one that the GFS has been hinting at the past few runs is a CAG (Central American Gyre) system which seems plausible because late May into June is CAG season. It does have some ensemble support from the GEFS & EPS as well so it has my interest.

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Sun May 30, 2021 8:34 pm

One thing Im potentially concerned about “ IF and I mean only IF” this system forms, it may not be a fast moving one, seems at least on the GFS that the “ potential system” kind of just meanders around in the western gulf, steering flow could be erratic

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 12:16 am

WPC has drastically increased the rainfall outlook for SE Texas over the next 7 days

Cpv17
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Cpv17 » Mon May 31, 2021 1:52 am

The 0z Euro has increased the rainfall as well.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon May 31, 2021 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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don
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Re: May 2021:

Post by don » Mon May 31, 2021 8:08 am

There could be some flood issues by the later half of the week.Something to keep an eye on for sure.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

An upper-level low over Baja California will slowly traverse
eastward towards the end of the week. Through Friday, this cutoff
low essentially sits stationary. The positioning of this low places
southeast TX right in line for numerous rounds of shortwaves. With
persistent onshore flow providing a steady flow of moisture and
instability, chances for showers and thunderstorms will prevail
throughout the rest of the week. By Sunday, the upper-level low will
have pushed into TX. Global models are in agreement on the trough
that the low is embedded in will become negatively-tilted, with the
GFS reflecting a quicker progression into the tilt. Simultaneously,
a jet streak (although a relatively weak one) will wrap around the
southern flank of the trough and place the region in the left exit
quadrant providing upper-level divergence. This favors more
widespread coverage of showers/thunderstorms in the latter half of
the weekend and into early next week. It is a bit too early to nail
down any specifics as far as timing goes, especially with the timing
of the progression of the low/trough and its tilt differing between
the GFS and ECMWF. However, there is model consensus on a tightening
pressure gradient on Sunday-Monday as a surface low attempts to
develop in north TX which will increase our low-level moisture
transport. As a result, PW values increase to 2"+, so locally heavy
rainfall will certainly be a possibility in this time frame.
Attachments
Screenshot_2021-05-31 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 12:19 pm

WPC has increased the rainfall outlook yet again for SE texas, they have widespread 4-7 inches over the next 7 days

Cromagnum
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Cromagnum » Mon May 31, 2021 12:28 pm

Ugh. I have a chartered fishing trip this coming Sunday. Hope it's not ruined.

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 12:29 pm

It might be, rain chances will look to linger all the way into next wednesday or thursday, definitely concerned about the flooding potential

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djmike
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Re: May 2021:

Post by djmike » Mon May 31, 2021 2:32 pm

Solid 5”+ for me in Beaumont according to the latest QPF. I dont want it. We dont need anymore. Hurry, someone come and take it away...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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