May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Cpv17 » Mon May 31, 2021 2:43 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 12:28 pm
Ugh. I have a chartered fishing trip this coming Sunday. Hope it's not ruined.
That might be a no go for you.

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 3:56 pm

I hate to say it but we could be facing some serious problems this week and beyond, a stalled cut off upper low to the west spells the potential for big flooding issues

unome
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Re: May 2021:

Post by unome » Mon May 31, 2021 3:59 pm


Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 5:28 pm

18z GFS has some really concerning rainfall totals, definitely thinking someone is going to see 10+ inches of rain again this week

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2021:

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 6:05 pm

unome wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 3:59 pm
updated days 3-7 hazards outlook from WPC https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

8-14 from CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php
Feast or famine in Texas. The next line of showers appears to come through BCS about 1 am tonight...

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DoctorMu
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Re: May 2021:

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 6:06 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon Through Tuesday Night]...

Currently, moderate low-level onshore flow has helped increase cloud
and moisture across southeast Texas. Much like yesterday, isolated
showers have developed west of I-45 where this onshore temperature
and moisture advection is the strongest. With daytime temperatures
peaking later this afternoon, expect some of these showers to
strengthen into thunderstorms that will soon diminish after sunset
when temperatures begin to cool.

Overnight, higher rain chances return as an upper-level trough digs
deeper into the Southwest US where its western flank will leave a
cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula. This cutoff low will begin our
period of prolonged wet weather this week.
The remaining trough will
push a cold front across Texas overnight where it is expected to
reach our northern counties a few hours before sunrise. Hi-res
models differ on where this front will stall throughout the day,

with some deterministic solutions indicating as far south as Harris
County, but most models predict it will stay draped across our
northern counties as it dissipates through Tuesday evening.
SPC has
placed Houston, Polk, and Trinity counties in a marginal risk for
thunderstorms tomorrow. With the frontal boundary stalled overhead
and breaks in the cloud cover leading to surface heating, some
strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms are possible for these
counties. With strengthening onshore flow across the rest of our
counties, isolated pulse showers and thunderstorms are also possible
tomorrow afternoon, especially in areas where breaks in the cloud
cover lead to the most daytime heating. Temperatures tomorrow will
be similar to today`s with daytime highs reaching the mid-80s and
overnight lows in the very muggy 70s.

KBL

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through much
of the long term period as a slow moving upper low currently near
the Baja California area gradually works its way toward Texas. A
series of shortwaves will be moving across the state, and with a
persistent onshore flow in place expect these currently hard to
time impulses to bring the state a lot more rain. Our area`s best
chances look like they might end up at the end of the week and
especially over the weekend when the low works its way into the
state and becomes an even slower mover.
The positioning of the low
and how fast (or slow?) it moves will become a major player as to
any chances of locally heavy rainfall and how much rain our area
eventually receives.

For now, in the short and long term periods combined (roughly over
the next eight days), look for widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals with isolated amounts possibly exceeding 5 inches
for
potentially a large part of the area. As you well know, 2 to 4
inch rains in Southeast Texas can easily fall in a hour or less,
and if this happens over the same area over several rounds of
storms, flooding could easily become a threat. Stay tuned to the
forecasts as the week progresses (they can easily and significantly
change) and monitor how much rain falls/accumulates in and near
your area. Grounds have been wet across much of Southeast Texas
these past couple of weeks, and it will probably not take a whole
lot of additional rain to lead to flooding issues.
42

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don
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Re: May 2021:

Post by don » Mon May 31, 2021 6:10 pm

18z GFS has increased qpf alot over the area compared to its previous runs.It seems that southeast Texas will be in a favorable area to get multiple disturbances through the next week or more.And with high precipitable waters flash flooding will become an issue.
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Last edited by don on Mon May 31, 2021 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cpv17
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Cpv17 » Mon May 31, 2021 6:15 pm

don wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 6:10 pm
18z GFS has increased qpf alot over the area compared to its previous runs.
We could be dealing with some issues. The Colorado River by my house is already way up there.

Stratton20
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 31, 2021 6:16 pm

Cant believe we just got out of a long wet weather pattern for like a day or 2 and now we are entering another prolonged stretch of extremely wet and possibly flooding weather, its crazy

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Rip76
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Re: May 2021:

Post by Rip76 » Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:04 am

Some heavy weather coming in from the west tonight.

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