May 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Mon May 03, 2021 7:36 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:19 pm
That stuff up towards Dallas is nasty.
So is that supercell directly over San Antonio. Baseball size hail and 60mph winds with that bad boy.

Cromagnum
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Mon May 03, 2021 7:40 pm

What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Mon May 03, 2021 8:05 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:40 pm
What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.
Dry line

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djmike
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Re: May 2021

Post by djmike » Tue May 04, 2021 4:35 am

Local met future cast storms majority look to be all north. Figures. I only got .23” over the weekend. Then Tuesdays storms look promising till on cue, I see percentages slowly diminish on NWS for Beaumont. Was 90 and now 60%. Once again not holding my breath.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

Cromagnum
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Tue May 04, 2021 6:05 am

Dixie Alley set to do its thing again today. :-/

Image

Cpv17
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Tue May 04, 2021 7:11 am

HRRR model is nasty for Harris County around lunchtime. Has a supercell right over Houston.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 04, 2021 7:30 am

djmike wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:35 am
Local met future cast storms majority look to be all north. Figures. I only got .23” over the weekend. Then Tuesdays storms look promising till on cue, I see percentages slowly diminish on NWS for Beaumont. Was 90 and now 60%. Once again not holding my breath.
I wouldn’t sweat it. It’s almost impossible to maintain a drought over in the Golden Triangle. The summer time storms will start soon enough.

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don
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Re: May 2021

Post by don » Tue May 04, 2021 7:33 am

Yep the HRRR is showing a potent storm this afternoon. SPC has just issued a Severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Texas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East/Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 810 AM until
100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
and intensity across portions of East/Southeast Texas through the
morning, with severe hail and isolated damaging winds as the primary
hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of
College Station TX to 65 miles north northeast of Port Arthur TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
Attachments
ww0142_overview_wou.gif
Screenshot_2021-05-04 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

txbear
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Re: May 2021

Post by txbear » Tue May 04, 2021 7:54 am

jasons2k wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:40 pm
What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.
Dry line
Yeah that was my thought as well...seemed like classic dryline set up. Now, I'm not sure how typical that feature is for as far south as San Antonio, but it's the common trigger (outside of fronts) from Central Texas and on north and west.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 04, 2021 7:58 am

Looking out west, it’s gonna be close at this location. The current supercell might safely pass to the north.

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